The risk is that the real reason early voting was so high in 2020 is that people had nothing else to do.

From what I am hearing there is disappointment in the low Republican turnout for early voting. Insiders thoughts Republicans would come out much bigger for the early vote as the Trump campaign is heavily pushing for early vote and they are coming up short. Bad signs for Trump

From what I am hearing there is disappointment in the low Republican turnout for early voting. Insiders thoughts Republicans would come out much bigger for the early vote as the Trump campaign is heavily pushing for early vote and they are coming up short. Bad signs for Trump

Yes I'll admit some of my other sources are random accounts with names like "Latinx Adjacent Doctor PHD" or "Election2024 Updates" with less than 10,000 followers, but here is an example of a more "credentialed" Democrat source (it seems like he's the top guy for Nevada election stuff and I remember him nailing 2022 for it going against the red wave polls) confirming Republicans are doing great in Nevada compared to 2020.





It doesn't mean he's guaranteed to win yet but I feel confident saying the early vote is good for Republicans.

I think it is pretty clear that 2024 early voting trends will look very different than 2020. 2020 made it much more popular and many Repubs were against it at the time. Would think 2022 is probably going to be a better comp for turn out. No doubt the 2024 trend is going to be that Dems build up less of a lead in the early vote while Repubs gain less in election day.

That said, Shack, this comment is legit. 2 notes down from the twitter posts you noted: "Really disingenuous to not point out that Clark (big dem area) ballots went out late and that’s why mail returns from that area are lagging."

Here is an account monitoring Nevada which seems to be more up to date:

https://x.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1848694264697430381

Newest Total - Mail Ballots - Clark County, NV
10/21/2024

Dem 50,385 (45.4%) +20,307
Rep 30,078 (27.1%)
Other 30,514 (27.5%)

Total 110,977

More mail ballots were in the mail file last night than reported by the SOS. Dems have a bigger firewall than we thought from yesterday.

Some helpful links for anyone looking to monitor early voting trends:

Overview
https://x.com/MichaelPruser

PA
https://x.com/blockedfreq

AZ
https://x.com/Garrett_Archer

NV
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1848714921045070095
https://x.com/JohnRSamuelsen

GA
https://x.com/gtryan

If anyone knows of any for MI, WI, or NC, lets add them

Those are mail ballots only where Democrats have bigger advantage but the combined mail in+early person vote is almost tied

I will also post my number nerds accounts I've been using - yes they're Trump supporters but it's pretty easy to tell when someone's posting straight up numbers when it's the truth

https://x.com/EricLDaugh
https://x.com/MadAboutSkin01
https://x.com/TonerousHyus
https://x.com/ChristianHeiens
https://x.com/RealSKeshel
https://x.com/OpenSourceZone

This site seems a good one to look up numbers https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote ... ly-voting/

It looks like Harris may be having a decent performance in New Mexico as she is listed as up 15% in total early vote and Biden won by 12% in 2020 in the end.

Let’s stop trying to call the election already

The trends are interesting to follow akin to following presales to a film before opening weekend. All the trends are showing right now is it looks close.

Exactly there’s no data to mine from this because tons has changed from 2016, 2020, and 2022 that it’s almost useless to look at how early voting compares.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-military-generals-hitler/680327/

Feels like Democrats are desperate going for orange Hitler angle as their last move.

One hopes Trump didn't assault a minor....I would assume this is BS unless it happened VERY recently. The tape would have been put out before voting began.

He’s a serial sexual predator & rapist. Found guilty in court and also admitted it on tape (grab them by the pussy). The odds he did this is more than 50%

Multiple high profile Republicans from MI and WI have endorsed Harris this week. The number of Republicans who vote Dem in 2024 is going to be.....well above average.

Yes, this is why looking solely at voter registration to determine who someone is voting for is foolish

More above average than 2020 or 2016? Never Trump has been a thing since the beginning

They have been growing according to data. It’s why I believe we are witnessing a party switch before our very eyes since 2016

What data suggests the Never Trump voters have grown since 2020? Not saying you’re wrong, just curious about the source.

From my findings, Trump had a 43% approval rating in November 2020, and it’s 46% today. Doesn’t seem to me like he’s gotten more unpopular

They took their foot off the gas demonizing Trump when they tried to go with Republicans Are Weird and Joy and are trying to turn it up again late but may be too late.

I think Trump will win all 3 states but feeling that his margin in AZ and GA will be greater than his Margin in NC.

Celebrity endorsements are generally cringe, but Kamala has leveraged them on back to back nights for national media mega events. 20,000 in Atlanta last night with Big O and now 30,000 in Houston with Beyonce.

Certainly gets her attention.

Polls are looking fairly good for Trump, but insider leaks and focus groups are looking good for Harris. The opposite of 2016 and 2020 frankly