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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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June 16-18 Predictions
The Flash 104m Elemental 30m
Transformers-63% Spider Verse -45%
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 7:54 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Final week of surge for Transformers makes me hopeful for Flash. Past 3 weeks have 1 big release every week and so releases get their peak window only during final week.
Elemental is still a big question mark. Only time will tell if it can also pull in a good OW.
For now I agree with Flash/Elemental numbers from Zwackerm.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 12:12 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Elemental's best chance is if it pulls a Ratatouille. Originally looks doomed but ends up being enjoying to general audiences. At this point, a $35M+ OW for it I'd consider a win given how competitive the market will be.
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 12:31 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
The Flash is doing $135m
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:53 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Rihht now I'm expecting The Flash to open like Justice League but have decent legs.
The Flash - 89 Eleemental - 30
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:05 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Rise of the Beasts is the taster for audiences of summer blockbusters, and The Flash is their main. It's going to blow up next Friday
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:06 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote: Rihht now I'm expecting The Flash to open like Justice League but have decent legs.
The Flash - 89 Eleemental - 30 Funny you make the Justice League comparison since that also had a family film open up against it to $30M, and also a Marvel sequel with strong WOM in its third weekend against those openers. Although $30M for Elemental would be much rougher than the $30M for Wonder was.
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 4:47 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6147 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
The Flash - $86M
Elemental - $28M
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Sat Jun 10, 2023 4:36 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: Final week of surge for Transformers makes me hopeful for Flash. Past 3 weeks have 1 big release every week and so releases get their peak window only during final week.
Elemental is still a big question mark. Only time will tell if it can also pull in a good OW.
For now I agree with Flash/Elemental numbers from Zwackerm. Any updates on Flash presales?
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Mon Jun 12, 2023 11:37 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Elemental's RT (79%) could be worse
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 10:49 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Shack wrote: Elemental's RT (79%) could be worse Disney really messed up by premiering it and Indy 5 at Cannes instead of letting less serious critics see it first the way they usually do. Feel like if it can reach Onward's opening that would be a win at this point - it could probably leg out to a final total above Lightyear, at least.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 12:25 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
I'm kinda sensing Flash disappoints and goes below 70m... shame cause its a solid movie but there's just a lot going against it
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 12:55 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32117 Location: the last free city
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
The Flash 90m 3-day 105m 4-day
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:30 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23840 Location: Classified
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Jonathan wrote: Shack wrote: Elemental's RT (79%) could be worse Disney really messed up by premiering it and Indy 5 at Cannes instead of letting less serious critics see it first the way they usually do. Feel like if it can reach Onward's opening that would be a win at this point - it could probably leg out to a final total above Lightyear, at least. Yeah it seems like the Cannes crowd was just dying to shit on Disney were these movies any less than a masterpiece. I bet both are entertaining enough, just a far cry from the franchise's peaks.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:47 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
FYI The Blackening is out this weekend too.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 4:46 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Flash looks terrible. Looking in 60-70m range. I think Miller factor neutered this. Elemental looks like 25-35m depending on how good the walkups are.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 5:38 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32117 Location: the last free city
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Rev wrote: The Flash 90m 3-day 105m 4-day Elemental 50m/60m The Blackening 15m/20m
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 5:52 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Flash disappointing would be the final conclusion that the (current) DCEU has indeed failed, and a reboot was definitely needed. The Blue Beetle and Aquaman 2 are considered post-reset films, but being released so closely to the end of the DCEU will probably make audiences link them to it and possibly be reluctant to see them too. Maybe they should have been moved to 2024 to give them some breathing room.
I don't really know what a good number for a Flash film would have been though; he's no Superman, Batman, or Wonder Woman, so over $100 million may have always been a reach.
I question if Keaton is really helping too. I don't get this sense that he's really a draw, as nothing with him in the last 10-15years screams "Keaton helped it." Do people under 25 really know who he is? It's been over 30 years since he was Batman. I mean, it's awesome he's reprised the role here. The impact on the box office feels quite minimal though, only exciting a small group of older diehard fans.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 5:59 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
I think the main reason people expected big numbers after the trailer was because of Batman. But looks like it will do about what we all thought after the Miller allegations last year.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 6:17 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21898 Location: Places
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Flash WOM looks like it is about to be excellent, expecting above average multipliers all around
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 6:39 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Even with good WoM it'll probably total below Quantumania if it opens around 70m.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 6:48 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6147 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Lol at Warner making sure the critical consensus summary on Rotten Tomatoes is glowing despite the middling actual score.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:47 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 10915
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
I think The flash will do Black Adam numbers. I bet WB and everyone involved with the film will disconnect themselves from Miller after the film dissapoints, they just dont want to do it before the film opens.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 8:01 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
Barrabás wrote: Lol at Warner making sure the critical consensus summary on Rotten Tomatoes is glowing despite the middling actual score. How on earth can Warner do it. They dont own RT. Its owned by fandango aka Universal.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 9:33 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 16-18 Predictions
I think Flash has gotta do at least a little better than Blavk Adam. Sub 70m would be SO bad.
Elemental’s reviews are good enough now that I could see mid to high 30s
Thinking for Holdovers Spider-Verse 30m Transformers 27m Little Mermaid 15m
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Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:19 pm |
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