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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
It would have to open to like below 65m to close below 174m. I can’t fathom it does that poorly.
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Mon Apr 24, 2023 10:16 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
I am pretty confident in the superhero decline but not sure yet if it extends to the Disney remakes.
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Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:38 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
FYI presales are starting this Wednesday and so I will be able to get some handle on interest in this. Probably most of the action will be in final week. I think half of Mario OD presales would be strong.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:44 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
This has a lot of negative buzz. Could see it doing sub $75m OW.
_________________ .
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Wed Apr 26, 2023 4:26 pm |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
If this flops DOM, it's dead, because I see it doing even worse overseas.
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Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:15 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Its still early to predict its OW just after 3/4 day of presale but Rev's club is sure to fail. This has no where the hype of big Disney live action movies for sure. The Lion King I would say the best of them. This is far from even Frozen 2. Other comp is Aladdin. But that had Will Smith before Slap gate. This is likely to open closer to Cindrella than Beauty and the Beast.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Wed Apr 26, 2023 7:51 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32106 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Thegun wrote: I think there are quite a few reasons, but I think it can still do 200-300 total though. Brian wrote: This will be lucky to reach 200m Domestic
Most of the internet mocks and despises this project, also some people are tired of disney and its political agenda zwackerm wrote: At this point, this has a better chance to miss 100m than hit 175m Keyser Söze wrote: I think its domestic is likely to finish closer to 174m than OW. Barrabás wrote: This has a lot of negative buzz. Could see it doing sub $75m OW. Keyser Söze wrote: but Rev's club is sure to fail. This has no where the hype of big Disney live action movies for sure.
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:39 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32106 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Only 22 days until Ariel shocks you misguided unfortunate souls
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Wed May 03, 2023 12:23 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
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Thu May 04, 2023 2:46 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18881 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
That would be solid for it all things considered. Aladdin had a $116m 4-day, would be nice to see it hit that.
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Thu May 04, 2023 3:23 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18881 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
First reactions from the premiere look positive. Very keen to see how this does.
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Tue May 09, 2023 12:44 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Very encouraging reactions so far. Mario falling off a cliff faster due to Guardians helps Mermaid as the family market opens up too.
Out of the live remakes, I only have liked The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, and Aladdin which I felt had a bit more character development. Sounds like a star making turn for Halle here.
5/6 of Marshall's directed films have gotten 3+ Oscars (other than a POTC sequel) so also think it could get some awards attention too.
Spider-verse will completely destroy it but still could do a respectable 4day tally.
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Tue May 09, 2023 2:09 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
I feel like other live action remakes had positive social media reactions too. We’ll see when reviews come out.
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Tue May 09, 2023 9:35 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Has this accelerated at all Keyzer?
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Thu May 18, 2023 3:58 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Its not doing badly. its definitely inching up and will go over what I predicted in the monthly game. but its all about final week. Whether it behaves like a fan driven movie or a family animation level of final week surge.
That said this club has 0% chance. Aint happening for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu May 18, 2023 5:10 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18881 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
I think buzz will be high release week. Don't see a humungous opening but doing like Aladdin #s would be good.
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Thu May 18, 2023 9:24 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
This movie has been in development since 2017, if I'm not mistaken, and the main cast were all signed on almost four years ago. All the hate surrounding it was huge early on (probably the among the highest for any film) and remained high for several years thereafter.
But I feel it has finally dwindled little by little over the past full year or so and is relatively small now from my perspective. Hating something for as long as six freakin' years has got to be exhausting, so perhaps many or most of them have moved on at last.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu May 18, 2023 9:42 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
I don’t think the hate is as casting based as it was, though I still see a lot of people saying Disney has run out of original ideas.
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Thu May 18, 2023 9:57 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
zwackerm wrote: I don’t think the hate is as casting based as it was, though I still see a lot of people saying Disney has run out of original ideas. isn't that right. They are riding things mostly on known formula whether its a MCU movie, animation or live action. When have they last made something outside their formula. Disney is not the one to take big risks. Early reactions to this already confirms that as well.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu May 18, 2023 11:02 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Well, could you imagine the reaction if they took some risks and changed too much up here vs the original animated film? They've already changed some things based on official reports (and book leaks), and while minor (and even arguably better), those still caused some amount of backlash (at least online).
Disney obviously needs some more original ideas, but when they try them in classic franchises (Star Wars, Marvel, and their LA remakes), the backlash tends to be severe. Most fans/audiences seem to prefer content as close to the original source (or in this case, the original Disney adaptations) and/or things that don't stray far from already established ideas or themes from previous films in their franchises. The Last Jedi is a perfect example of this. Enough fans were pissed, they reworked Episode 9 to basically be an adaptation of someone's fan fiction on the OT.
A film based on an established franchise or already adapted source is nigh impossible to make the majority happy, it seems. Too close to the original = lazy, cash-grab, etc. Try new things = get offended, cry no respect for the original/source, etc.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu May 18, 2023 11:21 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Disney's last live action I've most enjoyed was Aladdin but that was one they took some big risks on. Will Smith as the Genie as strange as it sounded when it was announced miraculously worked well for me. He brought a unique spin to it and Aladdin as a whole was much better than the live action TLK. Jungle Book was also great but felt fresh at the time effects wise. So they took some risks there and it worked out.
TLK made so much $$$ but really felt it had no heart or real emotional resonance compared to the original.
Also surprised a studio hasn't bought a publisher like Scholastic. A treasure trove of classic book content. The model worked for Dr Seuss and Roald Dahl. Netflix did the Dahl deal, expect we'll see more there.
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Fri May 19, 2023 1:17 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
Libs on Twitter really expected Ursula to be played by a dude in drag they mad!
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Sun May 21, 2023 8:25 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18881 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
The animated Ursula was inspired by a drag queen...
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Sun May 21, 2023 2:28 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
publicenemy#1 wrote: The animated Ursula was inspired by a drag queen... Was still a female character lol
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Sun May 21, 2023 2:56 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32106 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Little Mermaid > BATB OW of $174m *CLUB*
zwackerm wrote: publicenemy#1 wrote: The animated Ursula was inspired by a drag queen... Was still a female character lol still inspired by
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Sun May 21, 2023 3:15 pm |
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