Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21157 Location: Massachusetts
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
The Winner
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $450 million
The Interchangeables - Literally. I shuffled these titles around several times.
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $350 million 3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $300 million 4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 - $290 million 5. The Flash - $275 million
The Adult Drama and The Disappointment
6. Oppenheimer - $215 million 7. The Little Mermaid - $210 million
Under $200 Million But Still Good for Two of Them
8. Fast X - $190 million 9. Barbie - $175 million 10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $150 million
1. Indy's going to be good (and Disney knows this which is why Mangold is on Star Wars now). KOTS still made $317 million in 2008.
2. The opening I think will be a little bit muted thanks to the last handful of Marvel films, but I think the movie will be good, audiences will like it, and it'll leg it out to $350 million.
3. It'll have worse legs than the first because of summer, but they'll still be fine and it'll have a bigger opening. Could go higher.
4. The M:I movies aren't as nostalgic as Top Gun. It'll get a boost though. The only question is how many times will people go back to see a film that absolutely has a cliffhanger. Could go slightly higher or lower.
5. Flash is kind of DOA thanks to the regime change. There's no real need to see a reset if you've announced a reset. Do enough people care about Keaton's Batman? I think it'll be good, and a success, but also, who cares? I don't see a breakout right now.
6. The summer adult drama is back! If Dunkirk can make right around $190 million, this is clearing $200 million.
7. It'll have an audience, but if Disney is expecting Beauty and Aladdin type numbers...no. And I don't think the original is quite as beloved as those two. It's absolutely beloved, just a small notch below those two. And this doesn't have pre-Slap Will Smith.
8. It'll do better than F9 because the box office is healthier, but I have zero faith in Louis Leterrier in making a good Fast and Furious movie.
9. I don't think it's the four-quadrant movie some people think it'll be, and with Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, I think it might be weirder than what general audiences are expecting (and PG-13). But it's still going to do very well. Then again, Margot Robbie.
10. It's weird to call the tenth highest grossing movie on the list the surprise of the summer, but there you go.
Strays - Universal is on a roll. The premise is so ridiculous that could be a mindless fun movie that overperforms. Most people watching Mario probably got a Strays trailer.
Untitled Please Don't Destroy Project - I feel the market is ripe for an overperformance for a summer comedy. The Superbad, 21 Jump Street, Hangover type comedy. An August mindless R rated comedy if its good could overperform. This is also often the best part of modern SNL along with weekend update.
The Haunted Mansion - This one sounded unpromising but its got a nearly $158M production budget so I wonder how much of an event family film it turns out to be in the vein of a POTC. Disney made a lackluster version 20 years ago so my hope is this one is good otherwise could be the biggest flop of the summer otherwise.
Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:54 am
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I think Spiderverse has potential to win the summer. Indy is overrated and MCU is in a decline at this point. Flash has nostalgia potential like NWH and so if the movie is really great(we will know on tuesday once it screens at CinemaCon), I think it has a shot.
I hope MI7 wins the summer but MI movies have their niche and I am not sure TGM is enough to reverse that.
Anyway My top 5 1) Flash/Spiderverse ~ 400m 3) Indy/MI ~ 300m 5) Guardians - 275m
Little Mermaid around Maleficent levels at best and may go even lower. Transformers may get buried under competition. FX also will underperform.
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Fri Apr 21, 2023 3:13 pm
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I’m leaning towards your predictions there Keyser.
Only concern is Spider and Flash opening a week apart.
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
MadGez wrote:
I’m leaning towards your predictions there Keyser.
Only concern is Spider and Flash opening a week apart.
2 weeks
Fri Apr 21, 2023 10:00 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23841 Location: Classified
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
If The Meg 2 gets moved then hopefully Transformers or Elemental takes that August date. I hate that most of these huge movies are only gonna get one week on imax.
Spiderverse just seems like such a huge winner right now and even though its obviously a superhero film, its different enough to not get hit by the general fatigue. I mean Mario, John Wick, Jake Sully and Maverick are all basically superheroes but they broke from the formula and created a new wave of box office hits outside of MCU and Snyderverse.
Fri Apr 21, 2023 10:36 pm
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38122
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I still think it’s possible the superhero decline hits Spiderverse.
I still think it’s possible the superhero decline hits Spiderverse.
The difference with Spider-verse is the first one's benchmark was on another playing field to DC/Marvel box office wise and expectation wise. It's a franchise without a $200M+ movie nor an OW above $36M. Spider-verse can open to $50M and still be seen as a success over it's predecessor. Doubling its predecessor's OW is still just a low $70s OW.
The original movie was almost universally loved by audiences. Even if it opened in December, it's 5.38X multiplier really is unheard of for superhero movies.
Here are Superhero movies that have grossed $150M+ with an <$50M OW:
1) Batman Begins* 2) Batman (1989) 3) Spider-verse
Batman Begins had a 5day OW and almost certainly would have done $50M+ if just a 3day. This list is so short but essentially really has only ever been done by the original Batman and Spider-verse. That tells me there is huge untapped audiences that discovered it weeks later, months later and years later after it left theaters.
Sat Apr 22, 2023 1:10 pm
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38122
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
If Guardians, Fast and Mermaid all disappoint, something of these other movies have to benefit.
Domestic - Mission Impossible 8 WW - Fast X followed closely by a combination of MI8/Transformers/GoTG/Mermaid
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
Mon Apr 24, 2023 4:32 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I still think Fast will do decently though its budget is ridiculous. The last one made $70M/$173M in the middle of the pandemic (June 2021).
Was the #2 movie from March 2020 - August 2021 until we saw the boom in fall 2021 behind only Black Widow ($184M). That wasn't so far off from Hobbes and Shaw's $174M (2017) and Fate of the Furious (2017) $226M (-24%).
9/10 movies with $40M+ OW's in the franchise. 6/10 $70M+ OWs.
The Fast franchise has also gone through ebbs and flows of tracking underestimating it. It's multi-demo appeal and escapism nature has made it pretty durable. The big question is the cliffhanger ending but there's enough people that have devoted 22 years to the franchise that still seem to show up each time.
Mon Apr 24, 2023 5:17 pm
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Fast X is at least matching the last one - so about $175-185m. The franchise is ridiculous but seeing it is still a bit of a tradition for most.
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Transformers looks great to me, but I can’t imagine it doesn’t bomb with sub 100m domestic in its current release date a week after spider verse and a week before The Flash and Elemental
Thu Apr 27, 2023 11:47 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Yeah, if Rise of the Beasts had come out instead of The Last Knight I think it could have done very well and even propelled the franchise back to somewhere it was circa 2014.
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Thu Apr 27, 2023 11:59 am
Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1807
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
zwackerm wrote:
Transformers looks great to me, but I can’t imagine it doesn’t bomb with sub 100m domestic in its current release date a week after spider verse and a week before The Flash and Elemental
This kind of scheduling is so dumb. I feel like the “summer release date” theory has been debunked and people will show up to a well marketed movie in any month. Elementals should move too…. neither will.
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Thu Apr 27, 2023 12:09 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
The only thing bigger than the MCU grosses in 2019 were studio exec egos. There is something about having a "summer release" tentpole they still gravitate to even if their films will make 2X more in the spring or fall. It doesn't have the "gravitas" of prime summer but also isn't going to be a 1 week event compared to other parts of the year.
Thu Apr 27, 2023 12:58 pm
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
This looks like Transformers: Fast & Furious. Still looks pretty fun though.
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Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:38 pm
lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
The core demographic for Transformers ages out every 5 years or so, bringing in a new batch of 10 - 18 year old boys. There's always going to be an audience.
------------------------- As for the 'summer release' theory it could be a variety of reasons that studios might be keen to hold to the tradition:
- it still might make sense for international releases - scheduling and availability could be better during the summer than during the lucrative 5 weeks between late April and Memorial Day (start of summer) - it's possible that the studio's internal marketing analytics indicate that summer releases do well in maintaining interest and recognition when the film becomes available on bluray/streaming/tv in the fall (and that post-theatrical revenue streams do better in the fall than during the summer months)
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:39 pm
Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21157 Location: Massachusetts
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I'm surprised they haven't tried to change up the designs a little from the Bay films.
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Feels like summer 2014 where the franchises from the last few years lost steam before the next wave of big franchises started
Wed May 24, 2023 10:17 pm
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Keyser Söze wrote:
I think Spiderverse has potential to win the summer. Indy is overrated and MCU is in a decline at this point. Flash has nostalgia potential like NWH and so if the movie is really great(we will know on tuesday once it screens at CinemaCon), I think it has a shot.
I hope MI7 wins the summer but MI movies have their niche and I am not sure TGM is enough to reverse that.
Anyway My top 5 1) Flash/Spiderverse ~ 400m 3) Indy/MI ~ 300m 5) Guardians - 275m
Little Mermaid around Maleficent levels at best and may go even lower. Transformers may get buried under competition. FX also will underperform.
I was off on Guardians as I did not expect this strong a WOM from MCU movie. Even Wakanda levels wouldn't have taken to this level.
Now I think 1) Spiderverse ~ 400m 2) Guardians ~ 350m 3) MI7 ~ 300m 4) Flash ~ 275m 5) Indy 5 ~ 225m // bad reviews and horrible presales at this point makes me think this is Solo than Crystal Skull.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
Thu May 25, 2023 10:08 am
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I'm feeling Barbie has a dark horse chance to sneak into the top 5 now (also for many of the tentpoles of June looking like they'll underperform). The audience and buzz growth for Mermaid close to the release makes me think Barbie can do the same. I also expect better legs if people hear its good and those who see Opp first then Barbie another weekend.
Thu May 25, 2023 11:21 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Keyser Söze wrote:
Now I think 1) Spiderverse ~ 400m
Will be lucky to make $200 million!
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