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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67053
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
I've not seen anything Avatar-esque about The Way of Water's numbers yet. It seems to be playing like a normal blockbuster. The Christmas and New Year period disguises things somewhat, but all films usually hold well. Its 3-day second weekend drop is 52%. So when the trades do the click-baity thing of saying its second weekend is nearing $100 million, I can't share their enthusiasm. I'll wait for its fourth weekend to see how comparable it is to a Top Gun: Maverick or a Titanic-type run with insane holds. It opened a week before Christmas to $134 million, so naturally its second weekend is going to be big, but it needed the 4-day number to look respectable. Being buoyed by Christmas can hide its normal blockbuster performance.
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:38 am |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6145 Location: New York
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
I don't think it'd be reasonable to expect this to come anywhere close to the first one's legs (or even TG:M which was sort of its own unique phenomenon distinct from the original's run over 30 years ago). Best case scenario was always going to be playing well over the holidays and benefiting from an empty January, although it is the opening on the lower end of expectations that puts the domestic total ceiling where it is now.
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 2:50 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21642 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Well it was 109 million behind Rise of Skywalker on Saturday. Monday it's 84.3 behind. Should only be about 25-35 million behind it by next Monday. I think it should make a good run for 550 million, and 13th all time domestic. I agree the first was always out of reach. Anything over 475 million is a win IMO
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 6:37 pm |
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pepe pippen
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:25 am Posts: 768
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Algren wrote: I've not seen anything Avatar-esque about The Way of Water's numbers yet. It seems to be playing like a normal blockbuster. The Christmas and New Year period disguises things somewhat, but all films usually hold well. Its 3-day second weekend drop is 52%. So when the trades do the click-baity thing of saying its second weekend is nearing $100 million, I can't share their enthusiasm. I'll wait for its fourth weekend to see how comparable it is to a Top Gun: Maverick or a Titanic-type run with insane holds. It opened a week before Christmas to $134 million, so naturally its second weekend is going to be big, but it needed the 4-day number to look respectable. Being buoyed by Christmas can hide its normal blockbuster performance. Rogue One dropped a 58.7% without a GIGANTIC storm through the weekend...
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:06 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22687 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
$550-$600m looks like where it is heading. I think something most of us have been predicting for years - a reasonable drop from the 1st but still substantial $$.
Furthermore, pre 2020 we were spoiled for films just over-achieving to mammoth numbers (500m+) even without having much of a cultural impact (e.g. Beauty and the Beast, Incredibles 2, Rogue One, The Lion King 2019)
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:23 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21642 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Times have changed. It was right timing. Disney remade their biggest hits, and played with the new properties to their potential. little Mermaid was never going to be that big, but I’m sure they’ll blame the casting. Outside of Marvel (and really just avengers and wolverine’s return) they don’t have many 300+ films for 2-3 years. I’ll always have hope for Indy 5 though.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:40 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Thegun wrote: Times have changed. It was right timing. Disney remade their biggest hits, and played with the new properties to their potential. little Mermaid was never going to be that big, but I’m sure they’ll blame the casting. Outside of Marvel (and really just avengers and wolverine’s return) they don’t have many 300+ films for 2-3 years. I’ll always have hope for Indy 5 though. Regarding Indy, that is not surprising given your icon photo.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:36 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21642 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Well even crystal Skull is is 400+ so I don’t think think almost 15 days to itself during 4th of July is an insane get.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:26 pm |
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redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Nothing went wrong. Looks like it could make $600M domestic, which is very good. It's doing extremely well in overseas markets, even with China being a deflated market at the moment. They have room to grow with the next Avatar movie in a couple years.
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Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:33 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67053
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Dec 30, 2022 12:56 pm |
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pookpooi
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 am Posts: 516
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Many people point out that Ant-Man 3 will stop Avatar 2's rampage run, but what if Ant-Man flop? And there's significant chance it might happened considering that recently even a good sequel like Wakanda Forever has 40% worldwide drop compare to the first film.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:28 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67053
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Even if it underperforms, it is not "flopping". It will be big enough by default and virtue of it being a blockbuster to unseat Avatar: The Way of Water, which will be virtually dead by then.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:11 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
The absurdity of this thread is being spelled out by one simple question:
What other movie do you see on the horizon to do $2b+ WW?
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:34 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Things might turn out alright for this one, but I don't see it lasting. Avatar's success is entirely GP fueled (it doesn't really have a fanbase) and I don't see the GP sticking around for 3 more movies.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 11:15 am |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm Posts: 2077 Location: At the edge of reality
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Cynosure wrote: Things might turn out alright for this one, but I don't see it lasting. Avatar's success is entirely GP fueled (it doesn't really have a fanbase) and I don't see the GP sticking around for 3 more movies. I second that. The third installment will not get over 1.5b worldwide. If the trailer is not outstanding, I see 1.5b max for Avatar 3.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 11:26 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32107 Location: the last free city
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
Last edited by Rev on Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:00 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32107 Location: the last free city
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Rev wrote: Algren wrote: Fuck off. Marathon not a sprint. You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers. Good time to highlight this again
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:01 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23809 Location: Classified
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
The opening weekend and Japan numbers deserved an overeaction. We all knew it would have strong staying power throughout the holidays (all the way to MLK day.) $600M looks likely now, and thats great obviously, but we also all know that Cameron wanted the domestic #1 back from Force Awakens. He'll just have to settle for being king of the world. If Cameron can't do it, will any movie ever be able to hit one billion domestic?
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:37 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32107 Location: the last free city
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Flava'd vs The World wrote: If Cameron can't do it, will any movie ever be able to hit one billion domestic? One of the Avatar sequels for sure cause they’ll only get bigger & better
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:49 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21642 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Nah, each avatar will do less, 5 films is ridiculous for this series. The way Cameron works we will all be dead before part 5 comes out, I expect part 5 around 2058
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 8:38 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6145 Location: New York
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
This thread should just be limited to Japan.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 8:50 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32107 Location: the last free city
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Thegun wrote: Nah, each avatar will do less, 5 films is ridiculous for this series. The way Cameron works we will all be dead before part 5 comes out, I expect part 5 around 2058 Don’t let your dislike for Avatar/JC make you post idiotic comments like that.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21893 Location: Places
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
I really wonder how Avatar 3 is going to do.
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Sat Dec 31, 2022 11:02 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21642 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
Rev wrote: Thegun wrote: Nah, each avatar will do less, 5 films is ridiculous for this series. The way Cameron works we will all be dead before part 5 comes out, I expect part 5 around 2058 Don’t let your dislike for Avatar/JC make you post idiotic comments like that. What? I love JC and enjoyed the Avatar films. History does not go in its favor, especially if the wait time is less. It’s not like I said Avatar 5 will make 200 WW. They will be hits. I just wished he moved on. Make part 3 and be done with it
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:57 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jame ... 235480925/$1.4B was the actual break even point, per inside sources. Probably a similar number for Avatar 3 as well (or less). Needless to say Avatar 4/5 are happening.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:12 am |
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