Still happening

Prediction: A2 will beat TGM WW but not DOM

Yeah DOM looks like it goes to TGM now.

So glad TGM is looking a little safer right now. Avatar 2 will probably get to $600m or so at this point - unless holds over the next 2 weeks are Avatar 1 level.

The constant "I wish Avatar 2 fails so TGM can have the victory" narrative is really counterproductive and honestly tiring. Why can't both movies succeed? If both movies (very different genre and context) succeed wouldn't that be good for box office? I know you guys want Cruise to have a win (awards) but that does not have to be at the expense of Cameron and crew (who might not given the greatest movie but it has a MASSIVE amount of work and talent behind it and is bringing people back to BO's premium formats and large screens) *sigh*

I can understand this thread but its like 90% of the posts in BO Bash forum now...

Sorry soagg. Don't want to contribute to a feeling of celebrating a film underperforming. It would have been amazing if WF, Avatar and TGM all overperformed. My interest rooting for TGM is it's not like a run we've ever seen before. From a box office perspective, Avatar 2 doing a billion domestic would have been amazing. Not to downplay the great work Cameron and team put on in but he's had lots of iconic moments "being the king of the world" being #1 domestic for 18 of the last 25 years domestic and 23/25 globally.

It's nice to cheer for an underdog like TGM winning the year. Agreed though, box office success isn't a fixed pie where some movies have to fail for others to succeed. It's ok to root for one movie to win over another, especially if it plays into an underdog story type run. I can't deny I'm pro TGM winning the year but I'm also pro box office industry growth so not great to see Avatar struggling in some global markets either.

Being a BO / theatrical fan necessitates rooting for Avatar's success them's the rules.

Avatar's tally is now $609,746,208 globally at Day 6. It's 41% of TGM globally already and well on its way to sealing the global bragging rights.

I really want Avatar to win the global rights and TGM to get the gold for domestic. It's looking good....

A2 will likely easily take WW, but DOM looks like a nope at this point. Will be a rough christmas for theaters since everything else seems to be tanking.

Will probably be at 1.4b by New Years day. Should easily pass TGM and probably will finish with 1.7b+, if not 1.8-1.9

Already at $1.1 billion WW is going down next week

WW winner is clear.
For domestic, it's just getting interesting.
A2 is now ahead of TGM at day 13 measurement. And considering that A2 opening is lower than TGM, A2 might have better leg?

TGM 126m, AWOW 134.

TGM opened higher.

TGM had months of summer weekdays over 1m. AWOW will surely have big weekends in January but it will have much smaller weekdays than TGM

All answers will be clear by weekend 4 it looks like on how the domestic path goes!

TGM did open higher, frankly, just adjust for memorial day shifting demand to mon

TGM will win the year domestically, anyway, pretty clear by now. A2 will stomp it worldwide.

On the worldwide level, Cameron is putting Cruise in its place.

No, sorry, I disagree… IMO, Avatar 2 needs at least 3.5b worldwide to be mentioned in the same line as TG:M. The odds for this race were clearly uneven. For me, Tom easily won 2022 (quality and quantity wise). Nearly 1.5b worldwide with just a flat original story 3 decades ago is unbelievable. No contest here and well deserved!

After Monday Avatar 2 will only be around 260-270 million away from topping TGM domestic.
Another month & half to itself before Ant-Man 3 drops TGM domestic is going down as well

Whatever floats your boat. Judging by the numbers TGM wins the domestic crown but A2 the global. I'm not adding a arbitrary multiplier (referencing your $3.5b, etc.)....just going off the numbers. Bottom line: I'm glad both films did extremely well.

Yeah, I was just going on a purely numerical basis.

You are right, I did not express myself correctly. Algren was ambiguously implying with his statement that Cameron had put Top Gun ‚in its place’. This may be true in terms of hard facts (numbers), but this expression does not do justice to the fact that - measured by pure potential - Top Gun 2 performed the best. Avatar 2 will overtake TG:M in the end, but nothing more.

With China holding better than expected it looks like 2 billion may happen afterall. Fucking James Cameron lol

Apologies for the ambiguity