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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23790 Location: Classified
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
A three hour movie made $358M opening weekend. And Avatar might have even less competition.
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Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:16 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I haven't seen too much in the way of promotions. Perhaps Disney is looking to get past the BP2 behemoth before ramping up.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:51 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yeah, they could start it all on 1st December and build a really nice campaign in 16 days.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:40 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
They also had the re release, which was free promotion for the sequel, so by staring a push in December or by thanksgiving they’ll be fine.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:43 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Trailer 2 coming Wednesday
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Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:45 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Trailer 2 coming Wednesday Ahh, I wasn't aware. Thanks. Well, there you go.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:00 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Ticket sales will start 11/21. It appears only 3D shows will start sales early on and 2d shows presales will start much later. So they are pushing 3D again with this movie. I hope theaters upgrade their projection to at least do 4K projection on all 3D screens. So Average ticket price for this would be considerably higher due to 3D surcharge for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Oct 31, 2022 11:32 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I will go to one of the better IMAX theaters in my area for this one. We're in for a visual/aural treat. I think about this sequel often, what it will be like, and how it fits into the larger story. Cameron never disappoints.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:40 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:47 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:59 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23790 Location: Classified
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
A great trailer gives you a million reasons to see the movie without giving the entire story away. That sure nailed it. Top Gun is gonna need a third miracle to survive the year at #1.
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:07 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Looks great but still wondering how Gen Z will respond to it. We'll see in 6 weeks! Overseas will clean up.
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:18 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21890 Location: Places
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
could be the next NWH or the next KONG 2005
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:37 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Excel wrote: could be the next NWH or the next KONG 2005 or just the next movie to top $1.5 billion (Furious 7, Avengers, Jurassic World, The Lion King...)
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Thu Nov 03, 2022 12:18 pm |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm Posts: 2077 Location: At the edge of reality
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote: A great trailer gives you a million reasons to see the movie without giving the entire story away. That sure nailed it. Top Gun is gonna need a third miracle to survive the year at #1. In terms of numbers, Avatar 2 may of course end up being No. 1, but 717m is still a very high barrier. I wouldn't be surprised if TG2 ends up as the winner. But to be on a par with Top Gun: Maverick in terms of performance, Avatar 2 would have to at least break the 1.0 - 1.1 billion barrier.
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Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:07 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6145 Location: New York
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
O wrote: BP2 seems to be heavy on water scenes. Should be interesting to see if that has any impact on Avatar 2 in terms of novelty. After seeing the murky shit underwater scenes in BP2 now I really don't think there's going to be any comparison between the two in the public's mind.
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Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:44 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Jiffy wrote: O wrote: BP2 seems to be heavy on water scenes. Should be interesting to see if that has any impact on Avatar 2 in terms of novelty. After seeing the murky shit underwater scenes in BP2 now I really don't think there's going to be any comparison between the two in the public's mind. I finally saw it yesterday and definitely feels very different. I knew about Aquaman but forgot about The Little Mermaid. In a 7 month period, we could see 4 $200M+ films that significantly take place in the water. Between Jaws and Titanic, there are some mega movies that have done big box office there. Too bad Waterworld had to ruin the trend. Though I think it came out 10 years too early and would have cleaned up more in the 00s.
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Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:48 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
3 hours 10 is a lot. 19 minutes less than the Irishman.
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Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:25 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Shack wrote: 3 hours 10 is a lot. 19 minutes less than the Irishman. 4 minutes less than Titanic. Though this attention fleeting moviegoing age we live in today may not be able to handle that length of time should help out on the legs since it will need to have a subdued opening.
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Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:30 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Presales have started today its fairly muted so far. That is not a shocker considering its not fan driven. I am thinking OW between 100-150m and then its all about WOM. I think it can do 6-7x legs despite much bigger opening weekend than 1st movie. His core audience will come during and after holidays.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:31 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
What's the budget?
Seeing reports that it needs to gross a minimum of $2 billion just to break even.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:55 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yeah, I heard Cameron saying this first sequel is the most unviable project in history to get in the black, which made me think that the third, fourth, and fifth will be less burdened. Maybe the second has soaked up much of the costs.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:31 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Why would Avatar 2 need to gross 2 billion to break even? I thought generally you needed to gross about 2.5-3x the budget which would be 1-1.2 billion
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Fri Nov 25, 2022 9:15 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
It's more of a business aspect.
There's a lot of issues for the fact that the film finished filming over 4 years ago, that adds a lot to post production. And Covid, I don't buy that 250 number considering the first was 237 in 2009. I would say just from the delays the production lost another 150 million. I'd say Avatar 2's budget is closer to 500 million before marketing. It is getting a release in China though. I'd say the break even number is closer to 1.8 billlion. But if Cameron and other talent took back end deals the 2 billion number is pretty feasible. 3,4, and 5 won't need as much. But Avatar 2 directly affects them.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:12 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I believe the budget is 400m, not 250m. But still I thought break even was 2.5x-3x the budget due to splits with theaters and marketing. Don't see how the split with theaters and marketing would require it to gross 5x its budget to break even
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Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:27 am |
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