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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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October 7-9 Predictions
Lyle Lyle Crocodile- 17m
In a more competitive marketplace this bombs OW at least but I think it will overperform a little due to the barren marketplace Amsterdam- 10m
Tar should have an enormous average and probably break the year to date PTA record with at lest 50k in its 4 theaters
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:01 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
I think Lyle will have a big opening. I'm thinking upwards of $28 million. Smile will also stay above $10 million because I have a sneaking feeling that it will open in the mid 20s this weekend.
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:04 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
I think Lyle can do low 20's.
Somehow Amsterdam is tracking in the teens to 20 Million. I'm not really confident it can do that.
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:28 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
It does have a very star studded cast. But the reviews are really going to hurt it. 10m seems still doable after Joy did 17m with also mixed reviews
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:33 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11550
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Clifford did $17M Oct. 2021. Tom and Jerry did $14M Feb. 2021.
Family film grosses were vastly depressed then but feel Lyle can definitely do $20M+. For now going with $31M.
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:58 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Yeah I can actually see 30 for Lyle. I don't think it goes below 20 Million.
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:39 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster.
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:24 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23836 Location: Classified
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Amsterdam reminds me of Monuments Men, which had us thinking it would flop after it got bad reviews but ended up performing respectably.
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:23 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster. Come on, $30 million doesn't make it a blockbuster.
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:36 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22692 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Lyle - $28m Amsterdam - $14m Smile - $12m
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:54 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster. I didn't even know it was a musical and I've seen the trailer twice. I might not be alone in that. But it is Shawn Mendes and he has plenty of fans that might go. Though personally I think he looks unrecognizable in this .
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:07 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11550
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
I read a few comments on Deadline that Lyle is the best kids film since Paddington. Even if it doesn't burst at OW would be great to have a leggy family film. The next one isn't until Strange World Nov. 23rd so Lyle has 7 weeks of family audience to itself. Even with a low $20s OW may be able to leg out to $100M if the quality is there.
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Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:18 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Deadline says $11m for Lyle and $7.3m for Amsterdam. Pretty disappointing if those materialize, though I am hopeful that Lyle has a big Saturday and Sunday to push it higher for the #1 spot. A $3 million Friday for a kids movie doesn't seem too bad, and is a near 100% increase on Saturday out of the question?
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Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:20 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11550
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
There's virtually nothing for families until Thanksgiving so could still see Lyle pull $80M if it gets past $15M.
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Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:37 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
O wrote: There's virtually nothing for families until Thanksgiving so could still see Lyle pull $80M if it gets past $15M. Yeah, plus its RT audience score is 92%.
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Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:51 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: October 7-9 Predictions
Bombs away!
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Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:40 pm |
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