Disney have announced the "live action" Mufasa a prequel to The Lion King will be released in 2024 (assuming summer).

https://comicbookmovie.com/disney/mufas ... #gs.bzc9qn


Predictions?

I think this is a much better idea than the blah remake of the 1994 original. Mufasa is probably everybody's favourite part of TLK so I suspect this could post some serious numbers. Not sure how badly the 2019 version will hurt it, but numbers should still be robust.

200m if it sucks. If it’s good 300m+

Yeah, no.

This has $400mil+ written all over it.

I'd be somewhat interested in an animated version, but as far as a live action goes I'll have to pass.

An animated prequel would be cool. "Live action"... lol

The 2019 remake made over $500 million, so this will easily be huge as well. Obviously nobody has a problem with live-action. It will do over $300 million with ease.

I can't wait for this didn't notice it was a prequel
I trust in Barry Jenkins to make a better movie than Favreau's 2019 remake. That one had no fucking JOY/MAGIC at all. I did not feel the love tonight and I definitely didn't not have Hakuna Matata.

I’m thinking for this about a 50m OW and 280m total.

Trailer is mainly "Did you like the visual effects in the first one... Do you want to watch them again?"

The december move was smart. in July I could've seen sub 200m if it dropped similarly to Alice or Maleficent 2 which seems likely.

Sonic 3 is gonna beat it.

Naysayers!

I reckon this is going to do massively again. $300m+

I’m just a single data point, but for what it’s worth— I had no interest in seeing The Lion King (2019) because I’ve seen the original and it can’t be topped. The ‘live action’ looked like and was a blatant cash grab rehash. This one I’m more likely to see because it’s a new story. I think the appeal of “originality” here will outweigh some of the inherent drop off from an overperforming Disney remake that came out when Disney was red hot.

Depends on how it lands with the public but it could end up being a $400m holiday smash. The move to Christmas might prove to be very clever indeed, I could see it filling the Avatar / Jumanji etc. family-friendly spectacle slot.

unrelated side note, I was today years old when something clicked and I realized that “Mufasa” was King of Pride Rock and Simba’s dad, NOT his evil uncle Scar! I don’t know why anytime I saw the title of this movie I thought they were making a Scar origin story, for some reason.

this is obviously a better idea.

The story potential would actually be really good between the nobody rising to power to be king + Godfather II double structure, I just don't expect Disney in this era to do anything but the safest route.

The IP just has so much value but they really left a lukewarm taste with the last film.

Lion King 1994 adjusted: $999,438,120
Lion King 2019 adjusted: $676,289,854

The retention was still 2/3 the original. 2.835X multiplier for an understandably anticipated film.

Could lose 63% of its audience from 2019 and it would still be at $250M+. Add in Christmas holidays that are ultra generous to family films and it would seem like it could be a wildcard on the upside.

Fairly light Christmas season right now so feels like Mufasa and Sonic will clean up. It could be the quietest $400M+ box office run ever. $400M over the holidays isn't that unreachable anymore.

I mean even the DTV sequels did 300+ million, and they were terrible, the live action was fine enough for kids, I wouldn’t be surprised even if it did better than the original with kids out in a dead Christmas

So the live action film in 2019 will adjust now to $676,289,854. Original 1994 film adjusts to $999M.

Could lose 1/3 of its audience and would be at $451M. Add in the Christmas holidays vs a July release and it's anyone's guess.

Disney seems like it's priming to get it's 2019 groove back. Can it pull a $400M+ trifecta with D&W, Inside Out 2 and Mufasa? Seems like a good possibility with such a light December.

Moana 2 is gonna be huge. Think that has a better chance at $400m.

As for this... this is giving me Alice in Wonderland 2 vibes. It'll still do well probably but thinking a big drop from TLK.

Until I read this, I was thinking the same thing. I couldn't imagine many people clamoring for him to get his own movie.

Mufasa was the best character in The Lion King (1994). So, I think the idea of a Mufasa films is good as long as it is quality and Mufasa maintains that stoic manner (and they don't whimp him up).

So difficult to place this one - could be anywhere from $150-$500m domestic.

I like that it can still be a Scar origin story.

I am skeptical movie ticket prices have increased so much. Its more of blockbusters dominating overall BO, that skews ticket prices. Plus the preference for Imax/PLF also increases ATP.

I'm going with average ticket estimates from The Numbers models. They leverage averages from movie theater chains ($10.53 in 2022 +4%, $10.78 in 2023 +4%). I've estimated a 4% increase in 2024 to $11.21. Those are average ticket prices the 3 major theater chains reported in SEC filings and compared to the National Association of Theater owners and Cinema Foundation data.

Not an exact science, but I don't have any other data to go from on my end!

Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/256580 ... 78-in-2023

I just saw the trailer and somehow still had no idea this was coming in December.

I know the Alice in Wonderland (2010) comparisons are there (Lion King 2019 “A” cinemascore / AIW (2010) “A-“ cinemascore) but I feel like Disney released Through the Looking Glass as an afterthought while they’ll market the hell out of this. And it’ll have Christmas. And Barry Jenkins is a good director so it will probably be good.

$450 million