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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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June 24-26 predictions
Elvis - 34 The Black Phone - 15
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Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:07 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
This is going to be a fun weekend to follow.
1 Elvis $36m 2 LY $29.7 -45% 3 TGM $28.6 M - 35% 4 JP $26.1M - 55% 5 BP $18M
Could have a scenario of the top 4 all within $10M of each other. 5 if BP surpasses expectations. Elvis disappointing, TGM holding well, rankings could be a toss up.
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Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:43 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
I hope The Black Phone does well. Looks cool and it has been awhile since we've had a major horror hit.
Elvis, much like Bohemian Rhapsody and Rocket Man before it, looks like a remake of Walk Hard which takes itself Seriously. But people seem to like these Greatist Hits movies more than the satire which eviscerated them so it will probably do pretty well.
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Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:56 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34879 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
The marketing for The Black Phone really needs to ramp up. Could have done very well. Will still probably have very solid legs though.
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Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:55 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Yeah with hype Black Phone should be doing 20m+ but idk.
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Sat Jun 18, 2022 4:36 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Elvis - $26 million The Black Phone - $15 million
Lightyear -56% Jurassic World Dominion -50% Top Gun: Maverick -37%
Unless I'm forgetting another weekend, this has a good shot at being the first weekend since September 2019 where the entire top 5 makes $15+ million, as long as Black Phone over-performs (I also haven't seen a lot of marketing, but maybe I'm just not looking in the right places?).
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Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:15 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Feeling good about Elvis. Looks way better than Rocketman and all those boomers who saw the trailer with Top Gun will come out. 45m+
The Black Phone can hopefully do 20m+
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Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:04 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6234
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Elvis is showing very good sales for early shows but the show count is very limited. Thursday sales are looking good as well. I am thinking 40m+ and should win next weekend for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:48 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22747 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Elvis will do well because it does look good and importantly the trailer has been showing in front of TG Maverick for a month now - you couldn't have asked for a better film to advertise with.
I'm thinking $45-50m is in play.
Edit: Just realised this is what zwackerm said and I have to agree.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:21 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32140 Location: the last free city
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Elvis - 35 Lightyear - 31 JWD - 30 TGM - 29 The Black Phone - 20 5 films topping 20m
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:17 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Excited for this weekend. 2 high profile, high concept original studio pictures expected to do well and have a positive audience reception with good legs going forward.
Hoping Where the Crawdads Sing, Nope, Bullet Train and more can continue the trend of original films being buzzy.
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Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:22 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7173 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
If Elvis underperforms a bit, it's very possible TGM could take first place, which would be insane.
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Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:22 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Tuesday numbers:
TGM did $6.0M on Tuesday for $480.7M total. Down 20.6% from last Tuesday.
JP $7.1M -52% for $266.1M total.
LY $5.9M for $63.0M total.
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Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:40 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
How is Elvis looking? Deadline is low at 20m+ but boxoffic.com is still saying 35m-45m.
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Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:42 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6234
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
PS is definitely amping up. I am in 35m+ camp as well.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:46 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Yeah the sales for tonight and tomorrow are looking strong. Even the matinees are filling up well (older audiences finally returning?).
Sales for Black Phone tonight are also starting to look good. I was getting worried about it, but maybe $20M is still in the cards? Five movies making above $20M would be outstanding (especially after the #5 movie last weekend made $1.1 million). [ETA: just went through 3 years of weekend charts, the last time that happened was...July 22-24, 2016. Dang.]
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Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:11 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13043 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
SolC9 wrote: If Elvis underperforms a bit, it's very possible TGM could take first place, which would be insane. Fun fact: It would be history repeating as TOP GUN reclaimed the No. 1 spot the 5th weekend...
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:22 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6234
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Black Phone so far looks like having better walkups than Elvis. Elvis should still have higher previews especially with early shows. But I could see Elvis doing tad below expectations and Black phone doing better.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:11 am |
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rftapeout
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:20 pm Posts: 96
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
I think Deadline's box office projections for Black Phone at $15-$20 million is too low. There is an audience for horror films. Black Phone should clear $20 million easily or its another bad miss for me in the June/July contest. The Elvis movie has two problems: (a) 2 hour 39 minute running time and (b) rumor that the last third of the movie focuses on Tom Hanks too much for an older skewing movie. Empire City thinks he will be the one laughing at the others at Box Office Theory who discounted the chances of Elvis soaring as a huge blockbuster. Millions of men over 45 showed up on opening weekend to give Top Gun: Maverick a $126.7 million start. I doubt millions of women over 45 will go to movie theaters to see Tom Hanks play Elvis' manager. Maybe Elvis can earn half of Bohemian Rhapsody's $51.1 million opening weekend.
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Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:58 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Hoping for 14m OD for both Elvis and Black Phone.
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Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:20 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34879 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
zwackerm wrote: Hoping for 14m OD for both Elvis and Black Phone. That would certainly be insane for The Black Phone. Hoping it happens. I can't see it though. 10 Million OD would be fantastic.
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Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:56 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34879 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Apparently it's looking like 10+ for The Black Phone and 13+ for Elvis.
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Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:59 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34879 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
I read Lightyear is looking at 5.2 Million for Friday. Ouch.
Last edited by Magic Mike on Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:30 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34879 Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
How much does a movie from Universal have to open to to avoid a 17 day streaming window? Hopefully The Black Phone makes it because it should be fairly leggy if they don't just dump it on demand soon after release.
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Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:15 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 24-26 predictions
Magic Mike wrote: How much does a movie from Universal have to open to to avoid a 17 day streaming window? Hopefully The Black Phone makes it because it should be fairly leggy if they don't just dump it on demand soon after release. $50 million. However, some Universal films on PVOD coming out this early did not have that negative impact like Candyman, The Bad Guys, and Sing 2.
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Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:59 am |
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