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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Minions 2 predictions
This one has Gru so it may not be as much a disaster as SLOP2 but will this still make over 200m?
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Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:22 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote: This one has Gru so it may not be as much a disaster as SLOP2 but will this still make over 200m? I. D.o.n.t think it will do any more than 50m OW so probably 175-180m total.
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Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:30 pm |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
The domestic market is becoming kind of irrelevant for the DM franchise, though not at Ice Age levels.
What matters is the kind of hold it will have worldwide. Pirates 5 dropped 25% from #4, which was released in a time of much better exchange rates and 3D share. I guess -10/20% depending on China. I really don't see an IA5 scenario.
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Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:34 pm |
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WayneBorg
Hatchling
Joined: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:28 pm Posts: 17
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
I know most people think Minions 2 will be a SLOP 2 but am not entirely sure. Yes SLOP2's bad performance domestically shows audience fatigue somehwat of Illuminati's tropes or at least in this specific franchise, but am not sure just because SLOP underperfomed then Minions will do so too. Minions 2 will at least have less competition, better release date and perhaps a more established franchise that even though has its best days behind it, still has some fans. I don't think it will be another SLOP, but surely not another DM2 either. I feel it's going to be in between. Not a SLOP2 but not a DM2, maybe a 30% drop from the previous installment (DM3) if it acts like a DM4..
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Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:36 pm |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Welcome to the forum!
And I agree with you about that. People shouldn't jump to conclusions so soon. The first Pets left kind of nothing to the audience (who the heck remember the name of the animals?), while the Minions are still very popular. 200+ is certainly reachable, though as I said it doesn't really matter if the movie grosses 150 or 200 domestically, as 75/80% of the gross will come from abroad.
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Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:54 pm |
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WayneBorg
Hatchling
Joined: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:28 pm Posts: 17
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Omni wrote: Welcome to the forum!
And I agree with you about that. People shouldn't jump to conclusions so soon. The first Pets left kind of nothing to the audience (who the heck remember the name of the animals?), while the Minions are still very popular. 200+ is certainly reachable, though as I said it doesn't really matter if the movie grosses 150 or 200 domestically, as 75/80% of the gross will come from abroad. Thank you ! I’ve been following this forum for a while now and have to say its Japan box office has always been so interesting for me. I agree with you – I feel like Minions 2’s release pattern kinda reminds me of DM3 in 2017 which was in a barren summer with no family competition. People often cite the hatred (not sure about this but eh) that the general audience had of Minions 1, but there are other factors in play such as release date, competition, marketing, tie-ins and branding etc. I feel like SLOP flopped on all of these criteria: bad release date sandwiched between Aladdin and TS4, lackluster marketing, no tie-ins or merch etc. I don’t think all of these factors will fare as terribly for Minions 2 as they did for SLOP 2. I’m also not sure what SLOP 2’s bad results mean for its company as a whole and maybe we need a few more films to be entirely sure, but I totally agree with your analysis on the franchise.
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Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:10 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
I think this is where the bottom falls out of this franchise. Could go sub $150m domestic and sub $500m WW.
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Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:00 pm |
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WayneBorg
Hatchling
Joined: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:28 pm Posts: 17
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
I just don't think this is Ice Age OS. Domestically mayyybe but another Ice Age Worldwide? not so sure just because SLOP flopped.
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Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:34 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Apparently tracking for 65-80m OW.
Incredibly skeptical this opens over 50m but we'll see.
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Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:42 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Feels like there is more excitement for this than Lightyear. I could see it out-opening LY.
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Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:35 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
I dont see any excitement for this. Presales have been horrific(dont know why they started it so early) and I expect reviews to be bad. I am expecting it to drop big from DM3. May be 65/180 kind of run.
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Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:53 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Thanks to LY the bar is remarkably low for this now to be deemed as a success.
Despite the last films $116M OW, anything over $50M here will probably be seen as a success though I can see it do much higher. A mega success would be surpassing Sonic's OW. Paws of Fury also has more upside so could keep Paramount's streak going.
Tracking was way off for LY but don't think it will be for Minions, rather more on the upside.
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Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:06 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Audience reaction to the trailer was tepid. Underwhelming. Still, it could do Sing 2 numbers https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/r ... bo_tt_gr_1
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:43 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
MadGez wrote: Feels like there is more excitement for this than Lightyear. I could see it out-opening LY. So yeah - looks like Minions does indeed have a great shot at beating out LY - in final gross at least.
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Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:40 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
I was going to make a Minions will double LY club before it opened but didn't end up doing it. Will be interesting to see if it can double it's total though. Feel like all the ingredients are there for a mega breakout here.
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Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Yeah looks like a solid opening is in play. I just wonder how much of a hit it takes when Thor comes out?
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:30 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
If it is well received, it could fall about 55% against Thor. If it is meh received, it will fall 60% or more.
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Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:34 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: Minions 2 predictions
Reviews are not outright bad and so it should be ok. Plus the summer is almost empty post Thor. Thor itself would not destroy everything. Movies did hold well during DS2 OW and JWD OW. There is a loss of Imax/PLF screens but Minions business is not that much dependent on premium screens for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:44 pm |
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