Author |
Message |
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20369 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
June 3-5 Predictions
There are potentially three new wide releases, Crimes of the Future, Watcher. and Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story. But I cannot tell how they will do as they could all be barely wide or not at all wide. They've also received almost no marketing.
Top Gun will probably fall 50% ish or a little less.
|
Fri May 27, 2022 10:30 am |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Watcher is 500+ theaters.
|
Fri May 27, 2022 5:11 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18897 Location: San Diego
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Top Gun really lucked out on getting an additional week of premium screens. I'm thinking weekend drop will be around 48-50%.
|
Tue May 31, 2022 12:48 pm |
|
|
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32115 Location: the last free city
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I'll be very surprised & impressed if it does anything under a 54% drop
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
|
Tue May 31, 2022 1:23 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20369 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
When will we know how many theaters Watcher and Crimes of the Future are in? Hopefully Crimes is not too wide so it can expand well.
|
Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:48 am |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I'm thinking 300-500 for Crimes going by how many theaters are getting it around here. They might be opening it similar to Titane but this is more high profile and will do well enough to expand more.
|
Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:29 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20369 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Weekday holds for Top Gun have been so stellar, thinking an 80m second weekend minimum, with potential to go higher. If it followed the trajectory of DSITMOM's daily first week holds, it would do 100.6m second weekend
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:52 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6177
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Rev wrote: I'll be very surprised & impressed if it does anything under a 54% drop Prepare to be shocked. 14.82m wednesday is bonkers. I dont think I have seen better wednesday drop in since the discount tuesday era.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:56 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6177
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Weekday holds for Top Gun have been so stellar, thinking an 80m second weekend minimum, with potential to go higher. If it followed the trajectory of DSITMOM's daily first week holds, it would do 100.6m second weekend DS2 is not a good comp considering this is weekend after memorial. Some schools are off plus it had strong weekday holds. Its friday increase will be worse than Aladdin as well.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:57 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20369 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
There are almost no schools out, none at all where I live. But maybe you're right. Some religious schools may be out but no public schools for sure
Doctor Strange held really poorly second weekend, so thought its holds were close to worst case scenario tbh. Friday and Saturday increases were not impressive
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 4:12 pm |
|
|
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38093
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
With no competition I'm feeling a ridiculous 2nd weekend for Top Gun
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:44 pm |
|
|
Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. It could dent Top Gun's second weekend with the Morbillions it'll make.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:43 pm |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: There are almost no schools out, none at all where I live. But maybe you're right. Some religious schools may be out but no public schools for sure Public shools are out around me. We always got out a day or two after Memorial Day though. Crimes is in an estimated 900 theaters this weekend. Watcher is in 764.
|
Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:21 pm |
|
|
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11549
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
If TG drops below 44.7% (Black Panther's drop after Feb. 2018 long weekend), it will be the best $115M+ opener second weekend hold ever not supported by a long weekend in week 2.
Needs $70.07M+ to get there. Given the weekday tallies feels like it has a great chance to get there or beat it.
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:24 am |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67059
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Corpse wrote: Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. I've read that those 1,000 theatres are not just in the US. It's global. So I'm not sure what the count will be domestically. But let's just say it goes into that many, how much can it realistically make? Last weekend it had a $359 per-theatre-average. So that would be the best part of $400k if using the same numbers. But, okay, let's say the meme-osphere is strong with this one and it increases to a PTA of between its 6th and 7th weekends ($365-$977), it could muster a $600 PTA? and therefore $600k+ for the weekend. I'm hoping it can make as much as possible, but I'm not sure of the expectation here from Columbia. It's at $73.3m, so I assume they want it to reach the "much lauded" milestone of $75m, because any higher would be dreamland. I suppose it's at least an interesting experiment, and I guess Columbia are channeling Dr. Morbius himself: "How far are we allowed to fix something that's broken?".
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:37 am |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20369 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Thinking maybe 2-3m for Crimes of the Future and sub 1m for Watcher. Too bad both of these received so little marketing.
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:09 am |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Algren wrote: Corpse wrote: Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. I've read that those 1,000 theatres are not just in the US. It's global. So I'm not sure what the count will be domestically. But let's just say it goes into that many, how much can it realistically make? Last weekend it had a $359 per-theatre-average. So that would be the best part of $400k if using the same numbers. But, okay, let's say the meme-osphere is strong with this one and it increases to a PTA of between its 6th and 7th weekends ($365-$977), it could muster a $600 PTA? and therefore $600k+ for the weekend. I'm hoping it can make as much as possible, but I'm not sure of the expectation here from Columbia. It's at $73.3m, so I assume they want it to reach the "much lauded" milestone of $75m, because any higher would be dreamland. I suppose it's at least an interesting experiment, and I guess Columbia are channeling Dr. Morbius himself: "How far are we allowed to fix something that's broken?". The Numbers has its US theater count at 1,037. Its PTA is probably gonna be rough though as most of the AMCs that have it are charging only $5 as a "$5 Fan Fave."
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:13 am |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67059
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Ah yes, The Numbers. I forgot about those guys.
I wonder if this $5 discount is like the new type of dollar run. Do dollar runs even happen anymore?
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:05 pm |
|
|
Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
|
Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:22 pm |
|
|
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32115 Location: the last free city
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Ridiculous
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
|
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:07 am |
|
|
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38093
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I watched a little bit of Morbius online and it was bad but not a The Room type. It would work better for Mystery Science Theater 3000 than midnight showings as they could give commentary on things like the cliche of the hot scientist assistant love interest.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
|
Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:15 pm |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67059
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Morbius made just $85,000 on Friday, so unfortunately no impressive late-run revival. It did increase 922% over last Friday, but it won't make a difference to its box office total. It seems to be acting like a traditional dollar run. Nothing to see here.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:28 pm |
|
|
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11549
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
There is something cathartic about seeing Morbius flopping and falling off a cliff again.
|
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:47 pm |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Re-expansions of current movies basically never work. I don't know why they bothered with Morbius.
|
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:25 pm |
|
|