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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13043 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Friday Estimates
1 N Dune Warner Bros. $17,500,000 4,125 $4,242 $17,500,000 12 (2) Halloween Kills Universal $4,500,000 +159% -80% 3,727 $1,207 $63,104,845 8 3 (1) No Time to Die United Artists $3,579,515 +86% -50% 3,807 $940 $111,734,600 15 4 (3) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $2,450,000 +149% -47% 3,513 $697 $175,179,631 22 5 N Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $2,300,000 3,560 $646 $2,300,000 16 (4) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $1,132,663 +166% -40% 2,907 $390 $45,111,640 22 7 (5) The Last Duel 20th Century… $627,000 +93% -67% 3,065 $205 $7,094,968 8 8 N The French Dispatch Searchlight … $555,000 52 $10,673 $555,000 19 (6) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $547,000 +116% -40% 1,600 $342 $219,520,832 50 https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:26 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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Re: Friday Estimates
I think it's the opening day is great tbh. I don't really see it doing muxh better pre-pandemic and with no Max. The question is if general audiences show up for the rest of the weekend. If it gets to 40m, 2.5 multiplier to 100m may be a struggle but possible if drop next weekend isn't disasterous.
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:34 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Friday Estimates
Legs will not be good as the movie is boring as hell. What were they thinking?
Shows the power of REAL IP and brand recognition as Dune is a series nobody has ever heard of outside of true scifi fans. WB put so many movie stars into this, gave it an epic budget, epic marketing campaign. This was as manufactured of a blockbuster as we get nowadays and it manages $12.4m on its opening Friday. Yes, in normal times and w/o HOB Max, maybe that goes up to $16-17m but still. Dune would have been a ~$60m opening during normal times which, while not awful, is not even close to enough to justify the crazy costs of production and release.
This is almost certainly more of an investment in Villanueve longterm.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:21 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: Friday Estimates
Very good all things considered. Actually, even in the Before Times this would have been seen as decent. I don't think it could have opened much higher even if it had a Nolan or Tarantino (imagine? lol) as the director. The marketing department deserves a raise for getting so many casual fans into the theater. I don't think WOM will be as excel predicts, the movie is pretty good if you can handle the slow pacing, but the late ads were misleading for sure. I hope everyone knew they weren't about to watch a Jason Mamoa romp across the desert. Next week it'll fall huge no matter what, but if it has good buzz on the internet and cleans up the tech awards at the oscars then there will be enough hype for the more action-heavy Part 2.
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:48 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Friday Estimates
Part 2 is basically going to be a war movie so it will be very action heavy with big twists and turns, lots of drama. All the juicy stuff is in Part 2. And the next book, since I believe Villenueve wants to do a trilogy, is much shorter and faster paced with some very cool and interesting new creatures/characters that expand the universe, that one will be easier to adapt and probably more audience friendly.
_________________ .
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:28 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Estimates
You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered".
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:06 pm |
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Mau
100% That Bitch
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:42 pm Posts: 16901 Location: Monterrey, Mexico
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Re: Friday Estimates
Thats.... not good
_________________ Tongue Pop!
I kneel with Magnus.
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:07 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21657 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Friday Estimates
Jack Sparrow wrote: You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered". I’d be less surprised if it falls under 38 million then if it hits 40. The runtime mixed with the crazy weather hitting 50+ million people, the pre sales mulltiplier, and the way streaming in general has been effecting OW multipliers are pretty big factors not in its favor. I agree “all things considered” is usually used by people that are only choosing to consider certain things. It’s like the curb your enthusiasm “having said that” episode.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:12 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: Friday Estimates
Black Widow and Halloween Kills (probably) are the only streamers to open higher. One had a $30 fee and the other is on a platform that everybody hates. This not a flop like Suicide Squad, Malignant, In The Heights, etc..
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:09 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Estimates
No one said it's a flop but that does not mean it's a great opening that many here are claiming with "all things considered".
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:47 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6234
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Re: Friday Estimates
Thinking 14m saturday. Its up 10% at AMC and ratio at AMC tend to go down on a saturday.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:57 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Friday Estimates
I think it's at least good, if not great. Certainly not superb or anything, but there is a decent handicap here.
We'll never know, but I think in normal times the ceiling would have been... $50/60 million? Would have been really surprised if it opened higher than that range. So if it can do ~$40 million while on HBO Max, that's pretty good at the very least to me.
How many here watched it on HBO Max instead of in theaters? Nothing wrong with that (I did, my local theater decided to hold "Halloween 12" over...), getting your money's worth from paying for the service after all, but it's of course going to chip away at the potential box office.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:03 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Estimates
It released here in September so I watched it in theaters first but I appreciated it more when I rewatched it at home.
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:30 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21657 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Friday Estimates
I love whoever wrote Dune’s Wikipedia reaction “Studio heads are elated at a 300 million WW, despite the the break even point being far north of there”
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:36 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: Friday Estimates
I wonder how much they made in streaming. Maybe once that considered $300m WW will be enough to break even.
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:53 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Friday Estimates
I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: Friday Estimates
Excel wrote: I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs. Yeah, but if they look at the differential in the increase in subscribers compared to their average month/week and multiply that by the price and the number of months/weeks the average subscriber stays on the platform, they can get a vague idea of how much money Dune will have provided in terms of streaming revenue.
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:19 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21657 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Friday Estimates
Unlike the films of Disney, Universal etc. the problem with WBs strategy is the gave the subscription away for free. They also had to pay backend deals (225 million to legendary pictures) from an article that deadline posted a while back they need 50 million paid subscribers to make any type of profit, and I think they are only at 12.8 so far.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:39 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Estimates
Wow! That was a big gamble, WB is really bleeding money in that case.
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Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:53 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Friday Estimates
With 165m budget plus advertising, break even is probably around 450-500m.
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Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 am |
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