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| The Next Great Party Switch https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=90481 |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Next Great Party Switch |
Feels like we are moving to a new alignment of the parties. Namely the uneducated vs the educated in the divisions between Republican and Democrat. I’ve been listening to the Bulwark podcast which consists of former GOP campaign managers and voices who are disgruntled with the current Republican Party and they have some interesting perspectives. Voters trends are starting to see racial minorities favor Republicans as well anti-establishment youths. These two voting blocks have long been tied to the Dems since the 1960s when we last witnessed a party switch. Meanwhile Democrats are growing more and more white and suburban with a focus on the college educated, a voting block that not too long ago were big Reagan supporters and a cornerstone of the GOP. This is starting to already form a policy shift in the Democrats who are have very recently backed away from the Defund the Police crowd and to some extent the woke crowd as they take a more moderate and conservative agenda. The whole the Dems have gone too far left schtick is starting to wear off unless it is being pushed by the anti-establishment voice. The shift is still in its early phases, but it is interesting to witness. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Yes college education is the biggest differentiator. I think of the 15 least college educated states, only Nevada and New Mexico voted Democrat, and they're not a guarantee to stick that way in 10 years. So if you're Chippy you would claim that college educated people are smarter, while a conservative might think they have become indoctrination camps, since colleges invented wokeness. But even if they aren't, could argue that the mentality that the American Dream in modern day being going to college and getting high paying high status job correlates more with people who would listen to the mainstream establishment media sources. Meanwhile white middle class suburban people have time to sit around all day concerning themselves with issues like trans or climate change and reading the one millionth article about how J6 proves Trump is a threat to democracy. Still this probably would've still been the case 10-15 years ago. Some other theories why black people/hispanics are getting more Republican and white people more Democrat: - It's mostly Trump and it will go away after him, they like something about his blustery personality, the type of white person they don't get at all is the Romney type guy. Plus name recognition wise Trump is much better than usual white Republican politician. - People old enough to remember civil rights era are dying. It's been about same amount of time as black people voted Republican no matter what after the civil war (they switched with FDR). - It was crazy black people were voting Democrat that much in the first place when they were socially conservative than white people (more religious, more anti LGBT etc.), 70% would be one thing but 90% just seems abnormally high. So in previous eras the social conformist impact of black communities not to not be race traitor would be too big, but social media might counter some of that since they can now just follow Candace Owens or Dan Bongino and change their mind. - Black people basically have conspiracy that about white people/jews (final boss of white people in their eyes) intentionally keeping them down so in some ways the far right message about the government overreach and having some Great Reset plan to control society could speak to them. With that said there's now an anti-Israel position on the left and there is mega Zionists like Shapiro on the right so I'm not sure if the anti-semitic black people have to go to the right. - In general I just don't think like minorities like the trans stuff and are more allowed to be into patriarchy/masculinity than white people. |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
I think on Israel specifically the GOP’s new isolationist mantra is appealing here and negates the Zionist position as a future GOP platform is likely to take a neutral side here. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 6:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
I mean, since 1989, Republicans have won the popular vote 1 time in 8 chances. I don't think its much of a switch. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 7:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Excel wrote: I mean, since 1989, Republicans have won the popular vote 1 time in 8 chances. I don't think its much of a switch. They possibly would’ve won it more if the rules were different and had a reason to try in Cali/NY/etc |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
I was listening to a pollster that was thinking there is a decent chance Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college with the shifting demographics |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: I was listening to a pollster that was thinking there is a decent chance Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college with the shifting demographics Trump wins popular vote but loses electoral college = the biggest theft in American history and a reason to overthrow the government |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Whoever loses will call it rigged and stolen no matter who it is. |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Probably not. But that is a good mentality to have if you want to ignore the “rigged” cries coming from the alt-right and the Trump loyalists. Traditional Republicans are growing tired of the circus and are starting to consider voting Democrat instead. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Probably not. But that is a good mentality to have if you want to ignore the “rigged” cries coming from the alt-right and the Trump loyalists. Traditional Republicans are growing tired of the circus and are starting to consider voting Democrat instead. Yeah it’s not like the presidential elections of 2000 or 2016 happened, or the Georgia gubernatorial election of 2018. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
My preference, regarding the party system, used to be to expand to 4 - Woke, Liberal, Conservative and MAGA. Lately I've reconsidered and would rather just have no parties though. I wanna vote for a candidate I want to be president, not just against a candidate I fear will destroy everything. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
I think any time elections get really heated and where the parties consider themselves enemies instead of opponents, the odds of it getting stolen multiply. Personally I think the Democrats are 100% motivated enough to stop Trump that they would steal if from them if they could, kind of like temporarily suspending free voting until Trump-19 emergency passes, I think the CIA has rigged elections in other countries in the past using the same logic that well if we don't rig it than a dictator is going to win and end elections so it's really being the democracy saviors to rig it. If 20 wasn't stolen the main reason why to me is that it's just too big of a job to pull off and if it was so easy maybe they would've done in 16 as well. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
You misunderstand liberals. We are much better at complaining about stuff than actually doing anything. Though I do think Trump will end democracy as we know it, deep down I know that as a cis gendered straight white male I am probably gonna be fine in the new empire. A few unpleasant weeks in a re-education camp will make me see that Trump is the greatest man to ever live, but otherwise little will change. You need that fierce determination that comes with faith and nationalism to truly pull off a fascist coup. |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
zwackerm wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Probably not. But that is a good mentality to have if you want to ignore the “rigged” cries coming from the alt-right and the Trump loyalists. Traditional Republicans are growing tired of the circus and are starting to consider voting Democrat instead. Yeah it’s not like the presidential elections of 2000 or 2016 happened, or the Georgia gubernatorial election of 2018. A minority of voices doesn’t represent the majority unlike what is happening in the GOP right now. That’s an uninformed comparison at best and a disingenuous one at worst |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Next Great Party Switch |
I’m talking specifically about the recounts in Florida and the people saying that the Supreme Court rigged it, and then the Russia interference in 2016. Not the complaints about the electoral college. I guarantee you if trump wins democrats will call it illegitimate |
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