This Paul Pelosi thing is insane. They're very lucky he is alive and that Nancy wasn't home. TBH if their security is really that relaxed, they should obviously own a gun in that city.

I guess it was only a matter of time, and probably won't be long before someone gets killed.

All the "we're the hunters now" talk, the insane conspiracy theories being pushed as facts, that one candidate running ads where he and other losers go into a presumed Democrat's house with rifles, etc., will eventually inspire some wacko out there to kill. If Nancy had been home, hard to believe this dude wouldn't have killed her.

And there are already reports of voter intimidation happening at early voting sites. And volunteer polls workers wearing bullet proof vests? Why is that even an option to consider? It's gone way too far. I'd be very surprised if no reports of violence aren't reported on election day.

All party leaders (especially Schumer, McConnell, Pelosi, McCarthy) should hold joint conferences speaking out against this. If nothing is done... I just expect it to become a cycle of hate with the party out of power acting out with violence against those in power.

The ballot initiative to protect abortion in Michigan may be helping Dixon as even if she beats Whitmer, it is unlikely she could enforce the pre Roe ban as the ballot initiative should pass, even though it will probably pass by less than the Kansas initiative according to polling

Looking at early voting data, I'm switching Arizona from democrat to republican for a 51-49 republican senate. Georgia stays dem for now but it's very close and could switch depending on trends in the next few days. As for other states I believe Ohio is definitely going republican and Pennsylvania definitely going democrat.

Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin - likely Republican
Georgia, Nevada - lean Republican
Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire - Toss-up
Washington, Colorado - likely Democrat

Prediction: Republicans win all except Washington/Colorado/New Hampshire for 53-47

Biden's message a week before midterms: voting for the other party is a threat to democracy and that we should judge all Republicans by what totally sane underwear hammer guy did.

New Hampshire looks more likely than Arizona to me at this point. Masters has yet to win a poll, though some are tied. Bolduc won two. I think Masters is being hurt by a little loss of steam by Lake. Hopefully the libertarian candidate's endorsement will help his momentum over the next 5 days.

Rubio and Desantis will outright win Miami-Dade County

So it looks like Trump will definitely run in 2024. That's great news for Democrats.

Polling shows that if the election were held today, Trump would swing AZ, PA, GA and NV to the red column so that might not be terrible. Though it would guarantee a Democrat victory in 2028, whereas I think a new R president could win reelection in 2028 if they were savvy

Today, perhaps, but I think that by 2024 people including moderates will hate Trump just as much as they did in 2020.

Yeah I hope its someone else. Hopefully the RNC could pull some shenanigans like the DNC keeping Bernie off the ballot

Oregon gubernatorial election now a toss up after the Republican Drazan won polls all year.

Sucks to suck!

20% of voting machines in Maricopa County are malfunctioning. Wonder why...

And now in Mercer County NJ. Has this ever happened before lol

Katie Hobbs is running her own election in AZ. How is that allowed?

Brian Kemp also should not have been allowed to run his own election in 2018

Dems should be happy that the midterms are as close as they seem to be. Senators like Oz and Romney won't be hardcore red extremists.

Though Florida being a solid red state now is obviously discouraging for them, more and more states are entering the swing status which is highly interesting.

Oz (probably) isn’t going to be there though!

The Florida results are pretty astonishing. It's gone decades being one of the most 50:50 states there is, but has taken a pretty extreme turn Red in just ~4 years (arguably less).

10 point victories here wouldn't have been too surprising under the circumstances, but 16 and 20 points? Not to mention how well they did in the House and likely local too.

Aside from FL though, basically an expected night so far: A bunch of races that we may not know the results for in days.

Also, it's still a little close, but it looks like even Kentucky is going to vote No on banning abortions. Not certain, but it's looking favorable. And every other state with abortion on the ballot is voting either to not ban them, or to make it a constitutional right to allow them. So, good news across the board there.

I think the current GOP is very favorable to the untapped conservative Hispanic market. I think this will keep the GOP strong in the face of changing demographics going forward.

Republicans outside of Florida just shitting the bed lmao

Going through all the competitive races, this actually has been a pretty good night for Democrats. Losing ~30-40 seats in the House could have happened, it's not unusual, but it may end up being more like 15-20, if that, depending on the West Coast. They made some nice pick-ups and squeezed out victors largely where needed on the East Coast (FL aside).

As for the Senate and Governor races, many are still too close, but there, as of ~12:30am EST, isn't a single one of the competitive races where the GOP candidate is in the lead except very narrowly for Georgia (which will go to a run-off as many expected). Nevada hasn't reported anything yet.

It also seems like Independents which were expected to shift toward Republicans decided to ultimately remain in the middle, if not stick with Democrats in much of the country. Abortion could have been the deciding factor there if so. As noted above, even Kentucky voted NO on banning abortions.

EDIT: Warnock just took the lead, so there, currently, isn't a competitive Sen./Gov. race where the GOP candidate is leading now (with NV still missing). That'll still be a run-off though.

And PLEASE let Lauren Boebert lose! She's behind by 3% with 20% of the vote remaining.

Let these midterms be a message that these extreme members in congress (like Boebert) and candidates (like Lake) need to go. It's been a disappointing night for the GOP (in terms of expectations), but it's been a pretty bad night for the election denying wing of the GOP in particular.

Great for Brad Raffensperger winning reelection in GA - and great by the people GA for reelecting him. That guy showed enormous backbone early on vs. Trump and is a tremendous example of integrity there.