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 The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back 

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 The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back 
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Excel wrote:
Shack wrote:
Just cause inflation went from 9.1% to 8.5% from June to July doesn't mean it isn't still a significant problem for Democrats in the midterms, and for people that care about inflation more than the environment the recent bill isn’t going to impress them.


You need to take a MUCH broader view of this issue.

Incomes are up greatly, the stock market has recovered, unemployment is remarkably low, and gas has dropped mightily. The sentiment is no doubt much rosier now than it was 6 weeks ago.

The rest of the arguments still stand, by the way.

The GOP is def. suffering from a lack of a clear message in terms of proactive policy while the Dems are notching win after win. The poll showing Demmings with a 4% lead over Rubio is not a joke. Your average swing voter has no idea what the Republicans stand for other than supporting Trump and overturning abortion. :roll:


1994 and 2010 were red weddings and suggest that the first midterm after a new Democrat president is when fiscal conservatism voting peaks, and high inflation this time is a recipe for the same thing to happen. Republicans also did really well in the Virginia/NJ election last year and will have similar advantage this time of the party not being in power having motivated voters.

In terms of the Republicans message, other than things like inflation it's driven by anti-far left radicalism, much like how the Democrats position is driven by anti-Maga. The current situation is somewhat of a mirror reality where half the people think ones on the other side have gone insane and are driving the US towards authoritarianism, and vice versa.

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Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:07 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
What poll are you looking at for Florida? The aggregator I’m looking at has a 6% lead for Rubio, and Republicans usually poll weaker than they actually perform.


Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:19 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back


Next stop MSNBC or being the conservative on the View for Liz Cheney. Won't make as much money there though.

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Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:34 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Goodbye, Liz Cheney!

In a way RINOS like her are the worst type of politician.


Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:58 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Yeah man her not leaning into white supremacy makes her the WORST. How dare she vote 95% of the time with Trump policies. What a RINO.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:18 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Cheney official Democrat and Gabbard official Republican would be a trade both sides can be happy with

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:34 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Chippy wrote:
Yeah man her not leaning into white supremacy makes her the WORST. How dare she vote 95% of the time with Trump policies. What a RINO.


She has done nothing but go on CNN and criticize Republicans for the last 2 years, all while kissing up to nancy's "january 6th committee" we can get a Republican to vote 95% with Trump/Republicans who won't do that.

Give me an example of when Cheney simply "opposed white supremacy" in criticizing Republicans


Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:59 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Gabbard supports Democrat policies, simply not jumping down Republicans throats about everything and treating them with human decency doesn't make her a Republican


Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:02 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
LOL man y'all are just so delusional. It's WILD how completely inept your thinking about politics is. Moderates love Cheney (both L and R) despite her gross R record. She speaks out against an insane psychopath in Trump and the new R flips out because they love how they're in a fucking cult for him. Just completely in the can. I've never seen anything like the worship he gets from the Right. Sure Dems loved Obama, but my god at least it was because he was a likeable human (despite his murdering of the middle east). Trump is just an absolute piece of shit human and people fucking hump him for it.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:25 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Cheney having Trump derangement syndrome is allowed and can't be helped but she went overboard trying to get her Moby Dick with the J6 show trials with no witnesses or cross examination allowed by the defense. Plus good riddance due to being one of the last holdouts of the worst version of the Republicans, the Bush/Cheney era neocons who don't really believe in anything except more war. Jeb's son George P Bush who was supposed to be their next one is flopping as well having lost a primary for Texas attorney general this year.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:54 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
When this current generation is done, I'm pretty sure the sons and daughters of the Clinton's, Cheney's and Bushes are going to have their days in the sun again.


Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:45 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
Shack wrote:
Just cause inflation went from 9.1% to 8.5% from June to July doesn't mean it isn't still a significant problem for Democrats in the midterms, and for people that care about inflation more than the environment the recent bill isn’t going to impress them.


You need to take a MUCH broader view of this issue.

Incomes are up greatly, the stock market has recovered, unemployment is remarkably low, and gas has dropped mightily. The sentiment is no doubt much rosier now than it was 6 weeks ago.

The rest of the arguments still stand, by the way.

The GOP is def. suffering from a lack of a clear message in terms of proactive policy while the Dems are notching win after win. The poll showing Demmings with a 4% lead over Rubio is not a joke. Your average swing voter has no idea what the Republicans stand for other than supporting Trump and overturning abortion. :roll:


1994 and 2010 were red weddings and suggest that the first midterm after a new Democrat president is when fiscal conservatism voting peaks, and high inflation this time is a recipe for the same thing to happen. Republicans also did really well in the Virginia/NJ election last year and will have similar advantage this time of the party not being in power having motivated voters.

In terms of the Republicans message, other than things like inflation it's driven by anti-far left radicalism, much like how the Democrats position is driven by anti-Maga. The current situation is somewhat of a mirror reality where half the people think ones on the other side have gone insane and are driving the US towards authoritarianism, and vice versa.


You have an extremely generalized view of things. GOP did well last November when the conditions were far less Dem friendly. The sentiment surrounding Biden and co. atm is quite positive. And trust me on this - the Republicans have a HUGE messaging issue right now. To a stunning degree. Kellyanne Conway and co. must be losing their minds at how poor it is.

Where is the ultra-radical far left today? There haven't been any major anti-police riots in 2 years. There is nobody calling to defund the police ATM, although we did just have a GOPer say to defund the FBI. Marjorie Taylor Greene has CLEARLY surpassed AOC as the house's most controversial member.

Where is the radical left stuff that everyone was worried about? However, we do continue to have massive shootings. We have now made abortion illegal. We have periodic violence towards government from the RIGHT, exemplified by 1/6.

To the moderate mind, the far right is much scarier than the far left right now. Republican's need to come up with a better message fast as the economy is roaring at the moment and the party in power is notching win after win on popular issues, and they are on the popular side with the only major issue they have lost.

Read the conditions, Shack.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:51 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Not as bad as they were at the bottom of the slope does not mean sentiment about Biden and the economy are “highly positive” or “roaring” at the moment.

This isn’t going to be some sort of record midterm election like 2010 where the Republicans pick up 60 seats but even if they underperform significantly they’ll still pick up 15 seats just from redistricting that heavily favors Republicans in most states. Even in a blowout election the max they’d have gotten would have been like 30-40.

Biden’s approval rating is still only 40%, Trump was at 42% at the same point.

Are you claiming to speak for moderates Excel? While you criticize Democrats frequently, you still seem firmly on their side, which isn’t exactly moderate.


Wed Aug 17, 2022 8:12 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
Not as bad as they were at the bottom of the slope does not mean sentiment about Biden and the economy are “highly positive” or “roaring” at the moment.

This isn’t going to be some sort of record midterm election like 2010 where the Republicans pick up 60 seats but even if they underperform significantly they’ll still pick up 15 seats just from redistricting that heavily favors Republicans in most states. Even in a blowout election the max they’d have gotten would have been like 30-40.

Biden’s approval rating is still only 40%, Trump was at 42% at the same point.

Are you claiming to speak for moderates Excel? While you criticize Democrats frequently, you still seem firmly on their side, which isn’t exactly moderate.


They are not even close to the bottom of the political slope. Again, read the current political climate:

-Economy: cover is gone, jobs are incredible, inflation is easing, incomes are way up, stock market has recovered, huge infrastructure bill
-Social: climate change done, prescription drug prices capped, gun legislation passed, student loans incoming / Dems are on popular side of abortion and gun control issues
-Foreign policy: NATO strongest ever

Joe Biden and co. have had a GREAT last 6 weeks.

I am 100% speaking for moderates. I loathe the radical left and the radical right - right now, as we type, the radical right is plating a much more prominent role in politics. That is not good for Repubs. On the left, the dominant personality is Joe Biden - a low-key, drama free presence who is proving quite adept at governing. On the right, the dominant personality remains Donald Trump, which speaks for itself. That contrast is not good for Repubs.

Above all, right now - I generally know what the in-power Democrats stand for on policy. I frankly have no idea what Republicans stand for that is different from the Democrats other thing being pro-gun and pro-abortion. Repubs can't claim lower taxes because the Dems haven't raised them.

Trump's 2016 campaign was an epic branding and messaging win timed perfectly against a would-be political dynasty. Everyone knew what he (said he) stood for. He was a leader. In 2022, there is no clear message for the Repubs. They were clearly banking on running against a floundering economy and radical left - but neither of those seem to be real issues at the moment.

I don't think Demmings will actually beat Rubio, Burt GOPers who have spent the last 12 months thinking they are heading for a blow out should view it as a serious wake up. The general public is not nearly as unhappy with life w/ Biden as they were with life w/ Trump 2 years ago.

The big challenge for the Repubs? If things continue, the Dems will be hard to beat, because frankly - Biden, Harris, Schumer, and Pelosi are basically doing a great job. Just call like it is.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:17 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Excel wrote:
GOP did well last November when the conditions were far less Dem friendly.


Were the conditions much worse in November than now? Inflation is worse now and they didn't have the two negative quarters of GDP then, the economic numbers are worse than last Nov, but better than a month ago. Biden's approval on realclearpolitics has gone from about -12 last November to -16 now. It was -20 a month ago so it is moving in the right direction as gas prices went down but still worse than last Nov.

I may or may not respond to the rest later. The left has not really stopped being crazy or tribalistic in my mind, but maybe protests and cancel culture was slightly more overt. With that said both those things had declined by the Nov 21 comp as well.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:30 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
GOP did well last November when the conditions were far less Dem friendly.


Were the conditions much worse in November than now? Inflation is worse now and they didn't have the two negative quarters of GDP then, the economic numbers are worse than last Nov, but better than a month ago. Biden's approval on realclearpolitics has gone from about -12 last November to -16 now. It was -20 a month ago so it is moving in the right direction as gas prices went down but still worse than last Nov.

I may or may not respond to the rest later. The left has not really stopped being crazy or tribalistic in my mind, but maybe protests and cancel culture was slightly more overt. With that said both those things had declined by the Nov 21 comp as well.


The giant dynamic that you're missing is that barring a true catastrophe, moderates generally vote on optics - i.e. major headlines, general consensus. Those have turned remarkably positive for JB. They all-time bad for DT.

The radical left is not on mainstream news anymore in the manner that they were in Q3 and Q4 2020. The radical right, by and large, is on the nightly news. The Left's dominant figure is a low key, no drama figure. The Rights dominant figure is someone 70% of the country never wants to see or hear from again.

It is a horrendous contrast.

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Last edited by Excel on Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:39 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
There was another poll today with Rubio +11, btw

It also looks like Republicans did great in the Alaska election which has unique system where both parties are in the primary edit: not really a primary

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:41 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
There was another poll today with Rubio +11, btw

It also looks like Republicans did great in the Alaska election which has unique system where both parties are in the primary


I saw that in a Center Street poll, but have seen more polls with Demings leading.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:49 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Excel wrote:
The radical left is not on mainstream news anymore in the manner that they were in Q3 and Q4 2020. The radical right, by and large, is on the nightly news.


Which news? After all, Fox News has higher ratings than CNN/MSNBC/etc. and the far left is dragged on there all the time.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:12 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
The radical left is not on mainstream news anymore in the manner that they were in Q3 and Q4 2020. The radical right, by and large, is on the nightly news.


Which news? After all, Fox News has higher ratings than CNN/MSNBC/etc. and the far left is dragged on there all the time.


The people who watch Fox News are already going to vote one way anyways.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:40 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
The radical left is not on mainstream news anymore in the manner that they were in Q3 and Q4 2020. The radical right, by and large, is on the nightly news.


Which news? After all, Fox News has higher ratings than CNN/MSNBC/etc. and the far left is dragged on there all the time.


The people who watch Fox News are already going to vote one way anyways.


The same can be said for CNN/MSNBC at this point, possibly even moreso

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:45 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
The radical left is not on mainstream news anymore in the manner that they were in Q3 and Q4 2020. The radical right, by and large, is on the nightly news.


Which news? After all, Fox News has higher ratings than CNN/MSNBC/etc. and the far left is dragged on there all the time.


The people who watch Fox News are already going to vote one way anyways.


The same can be said for CNN/MSNBC at this point, possibly even moreso


Perhaps for people truly seeking news outlets as opposed to observing news by osmosis. However, as an independent, I typically use AP News.

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Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:23 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
People are not happier with Biden than they were with Trump in 2018 or his approval rating wouldn't be neck and neck.


Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:01 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
A key difference in the unity of the Republican party vs the disunity of the Democrats

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:31 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Predicting the following gains for Republicans (includes vacancies)
Arizona 2nd+6th
Colorado 8th
Florida 2nd, 4th, 7th, 13th, 15th
Georgia 6th
Illinois 17th
Indiana 1st
Iowa 3rd
Kansas 3rd
Maine 2nd
Michigan 7th, 8th, 10th
Minnesota 2nd
Montana 2nd
Nevada 3rd
New Hampshire 1st
New Jersey 7th
New York 19th and 22nd
North Carolina 13th
Ohio 9th
Pennsylvania 7th, 8th and 17th
Tennessee 5th
Texas 15th, 28th and 34th
Virginia 2nd and 7th
Washington 8th
Wisconsin 3rd

Many of these districts have a significantly new Republican cook pvi and are only held by Democrats due to previous districting/severe anti Trump sentiment.


Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:04 am
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