This one's going to Romney, folks.

Really, how exactly?

He's not my pick - - but there's no denying that the wheels are in motion.

lots of polls measure 'likely' voters, not 'registered' voters

and you need to provide a link to your story

having a hunch that voter turnout worked in obama's favorite in 2008 -- and reduced turnout and disappointment with obama will 'right' the 'ship' -- is not an invalid opinion. but it is foolish to think that the current, durable market consensus ignores these premises

it is true that a recent, larger gallup poll of likely voters suggested a 5% romney advantage...that was an odd result, even compared to surveys that favor repubs (eg, rasmussen)

To clarify, the polls do not rely on the assumption 6-10% more Democrats are voting. But it's been consistent in most national polls, samples comprise a larger percentage of self-identified Democrats and "independents" than self-identified Republicans.

Now we just need BKB to declare a Romney victory and Obama winning is a done deal.

Obama's Campaign Stops

Friday - Ohio
Saturday* -Mentor, OH; Milwaukee, WI; Dubuque, IA; Bristow, VA
Sunday* - Concord, NH; Fort Lauderdale, FL; Cincinatti, OH; Aurora, CO
Monday* - Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa

*Whitehouse.gov (http://www.whitehouse.gov/schedule/president/2012-W44) has not updated the president's schedule for the weekend as of posting.

Source: Dailykos.com


Romney's Campaign Stops

Friday - Wisconsin, Ohio
Saturday - Newington, NH; Dubuque, IA; Colorado Springs, CO
Sunday - Des Moines, IA; Cleveland, OH; Morrisville, PA
Monday - Lynchburg, VA; Columbus, OH; Manchester, NH

Source: Politico.com

No campaigning in Florida for Romney. Guess he thinks he has it in the bag already.

Obama must love Wisconsin (a solidly blue state in 2008) so much he has to visit it twice.

I'm not saying he's your pick, I was asking you to quantify why you think he's going to win when he's absolutely not going to.

^ I'm assuming Bradley Witherberry, noted contrarian and troll, has no valid response to that question.

Well, that's because there is no valid response lol.

over the past few days, i've heard very discouraging things about how colleagues of mine have voted...

granted, i'm in california. vote for romney all you want.

still...i'm nervous.

I trust in 538. So...

I still think Obama is the likely winner. Ohio just does not seem to shift much.

For the same reason Bush won in 2000 & 2004 - - election rigging.

This is a Republican meme being propagated by Karl Rove and Ari Fleischer. I could not locate any polls with party tabs that had a +8%. This is a typical one.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/po ... 21101.html

When people get to the polls they tend to affiliate more with one party or another. More independents show up in telephone polls than in exit result polls.

2010 was a Congressional campaign, so that is not a valid comparison.

Democrat/Republican %

2000-39/35
2004-37/37
2008-39/32
2012-38/35 (worst case)

White % of overall vote/Dem %

2000-79/42
2004-77/41
2008-74/43
2012-72/40

African-American % of overall vote/Dem %

2000-10/90
2004-11/88
2008-13/95
2012-13/95

Latino % of overall vote/Dem %

2000-7/62
2004-8/53
2008-9/67
2012-10/69

Other Groups Not Represented % of overall vote/Dem %

2000-???
2004-4/55
2008-5/64
2012-5/65


http://observationalism.com/2008/11/09/ ... 2004-2008/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/ ... lls.0.html

posting.php?mode=quote&f=48&t=68209&p=1799911

Romney-49
White-43.2
AA-0.65
Latino-3.10
Other-2.28

Romney-51
White-28.8
AA-12.35
Latino-6.9
Other-3.25

Obama wins.

The weather across the nation is predicted to be very nice and that is an advantage for the democrats. White women might be the key demographic for Obama in this election. I think their support will be stronger than in 2008, which will offset most of the loss in 2008 white male support.

Anyone worried about Obama winning should volunteer for the campaign and quit fretting over it on the internet. Phone banking, canvassing, door knocking, driving and office skills would be appreciated if you can find the time. I really detest some of his executive actions, yet I am still volunteering for him.

Holy shit, Ari Fleischer is still around?

No way Obama loses.

Obama, flip flopper's like Romney don't win.

Ron Paul

Rasmussen has a +13% swing in party ID from 08 to 12 (from Democrats +7% to Republicans +6%). Gallup has a similar jump in likely voter ID I believe. Rasmussen party ID I believe was right on the money the last 2 elections for the D/R turnout split. There would have to be a difference in turnout vs party ID of like 9% (to Democrats+3) for Obama to have a chance and like +11% to match what the national polls are saying right now (about Democrats +5 or +6)

Right now it just doesn't make sense to me to project Democrats +5 or +6 like most of the national polls are doing, the state polls going even higher than that. Regardless of how they got to those samples, I don't trust them whatsoever. GOP should be as strong turnout wise as 04 and 00 and many signs are pointing towards that like enthusiasm, rallys, independents, etc. It is completely logical that there would be an even split, even without the Ras and Gallup striking numbers in favor of GOP. Maybe Democrats +2% or something but a 5%+ gap just isn't enough of a fall from 08 to makes sense. This smells like Romney shocks the world and whomps to me

I'm having a seriously hard time following your train of thought here. I reread this post two or three times and still don't understand it.

Again, I don't want to jinx anything, but Romney pulling a come from behind victory would demonstrate that political science as it currently stands, like, totally doesn't work. I don't see it.

also should point out but Rasmussen is very conservative and is rarely right.

I seriously hope I'm wrong about Romney winning tomorrow, but to think that election rigging doesn't exist in the USA is naive in the extreme.

Harpers.org has great article about it, though the site is (suspiciously) loading very slowly at the moment.

Libs, put it this way. There are roughly equal registered Democrats and Republicans in the US (slight edge Repub. I believe, something like +150k). In 2004 the % of that group that showed up to vote was about the same. In 2008 7% more registered Democrats voted than registered Republicans. Not that surprising considering Obama was a a rock star in 2008 that Democrats would have a lot more passion voting, especially considering that race was long over by election day. In the congressional elections in 2010 when the Republicans bounced back vs 08, it went back to about even again.

What the election really depends on is whether it will be a 2008 or 2004/2010 condition turnout wise. If Dems and Repubs show in roughly equal numbers like 04 and 10, Romney wins easily because he has the independents and undecided voters. If 5%+ more Democrats vote Obama's basically a cinch. 3% is probably toss-up zone. Right now the polls saying Obama has this in the bag, are doing so because the polls are punching out that like 5-7% more Dems will vote. State polls are amazingly showing 2-4% INCREASES from 08 in many of the swing states like OH, PA, MN, Iowa, etc., numbers like +8% and +10% for some of them, this is the part that's creating the online WTF and backlash to Nate Silver and co.

Obviously tomorrow night will be the proof, but personally to me logic just screams an even turnout or a slight edge to Republicans. The difference between this and 08 where Obama went god mode activated on the mic and bent McCain over enthusiasm and passion wise at a historical level, is just so obvious, even without the fact that Romney is winning enthusiasm polls and independents which are two of the best signs for turnouts, or 2010 and 2004 being even which are much better comparables to this election, or the shocking Rasmussen and Gallup polls - (The Rasmussen one I mentioned essentially asks "Are you Democrat or Republican or Other", in 04 it was +1.5% Dem, in 08 it was +7.6% Dem, in 10 it was +1.3% Rep, in 12 it's +5.8% Rep, for a swing of +13.4 from 08 in favor of GOP. The 04, 08, 10 Dem/Rep split in turnout followed this poll very closely. Gallup also has essentially a 11% swing in the GOP direction in "likely voter" polls and 15% with leaners)