Romney wins easily because he has the independents and undecided voters.)

Libs, put it this way. There are roughly equal registered Democrats and Republicans in the US (slight edge Repub. I believe, something like +150k). In 2004 the % of that group that showed up to vote was about the same. In 2008 7% more registered Democrats voted than registered Republicans. Not that surprising considering Obama was a a rock star in 2008 that Democrats would have a lot more passion voting, especially considering that race was long over by election day. In the congressional elections in 2010 when the Republicans bounced back vs 08, it went back to about even again.

What the election really depends on is whether it will be a 2008 or 2004/2010 condition turnout wise. If Dems and Repubs show in roughly equal numbers like 04 and 10, Romney wins easily because he has the independents and undecided voters. If 5%+ more Democrats vote Obama's basically a cinch. 3% is probably toss-up zone. Right now the polls saying Obama has this in the bag, are doing so because the polls are punching out that like 5-7% more Dems will vote. State polls are amazingly showing 2-4% INCREASES from 08 in many of the swing states like OH, PA, MN, Iowa, etc., numbers like +8% and +10% for some of them, this is the part that's creating the online WTF and backlash to Nate Silver and co.

Obviously tomorrow night will be the proof, but personally to me logic just screams an even turnout or a slight edge to Republicans. The difference between this and 08 where Obama went god mode activated on the mic and bent McCain over enthusiasm and passion wise at a historical level, is just so obvious, even without the fact that Romney is winning enthusiasm polls and independents which are two of the best signs for turnouts, or 2010 and 2004 being even which are much better comparables to this election, or the shocking Rasmussen and Gallup polls - (The Rasmussen one I mentioned essentially asks "Are you Democrat or Republican or Other", in 04 it was +1.5% Dem, in 08 it was +7.6% Dem, in 10 it was +1.3% Rep, in 12 it's +5.8% Rep, for a swing of +13.4 from 08 in favor of GOP. The 04, 08, 10 Dem/Rep split in turnout followed this poll very closely. Gallup also has essentially a 11% swing in the GOP direction in "likely voter" polls and 15% with leaners)

Romney has very little chance. Obama is basically a lock to win.

Rasmussen has a +13% swing in party ID from 08 to 12 (from Democrats +7% to Republicans +6%). Gallup has a similar jump in likely voter ID I believe. Rasmussen party ID I believe was right on the money the last 2 elections for the D/R turnout split. There would have to be a difference in turnout vs party ID of like 9% (to Democrats+3) for Obama to have a chance and like +11% to match what the national polls are saying right now (about Democrats +5 or +6)

Right now it just doesn't make sense to me to project Democrats +5 or +6 like most of the national polls are doing, the state polls going even higher than that. Regardless of how they got to those samples, I don't trust them whatsoever. GOP should be as strong turnout wise as 04 and 00 and many signs are pointing towards that like enthusiasm, rallys, independents, etc. It is completely logical that there would be an even split, even without the Ras and Gallup striking numbers in favor of GOP. Maybe Democrats +2% or something but a 5%+ gap just isn't enough of a fall from 08 to makes sense. This smells like Romney shocks the world and whomps to me

As of the day before Election Day, Democratic early votes already in are at 89 percent of their ’08 number while Republicans are at 138 percent of their ’08 early vote total.

So how much of the vote is actually in and how many people will head to the polls? Well, if you were to compare the current Cuyahoga County totals to the actual voter turnout in 2008, Democrats have 37.6 percent of their final vote in ’08, Republicans are at 59.6 percent of theirs and non-partisans are at 26 percent of their vote.

Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/In-person-early-voting-numbers-down-from-2008-in-Cuyahoga-County#ixzz2BRSTVWHs

I'm now thinking either 303 or 294 for Obama. 53/47 Senate.

Let me venture a guess:

Romney will get NC, FL, CO, OH, VA.

Obama will get MN, MI, WI, NV, IA, PA, NH.

Electoral College count:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

I think the states that are legit toss-ups are VA and NH.

I hope I am wrong.

Don't see Wisconsin being in play; the last five polls there has Obama up by an average of 5.3%, with him getting over 50% threshold in 4 of them.

Admittedly, my sample size is small, but it still worries me.

Well Indiana is acting strange in the past few elections

It went Obama in 2008 now it appears it going to Romney by well over 20% this time ???

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main

Well Indiana is acting strange in the past few elections

It went Obama in 2008 now it appears it going to Romney by well over 20% this time ???

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main

How does CNN have Florida results when the poll don't close till 8pm?