Thought I'd share this with anyone who is interested who may not be aware of these pages.

The first is Electoral Vote -- they take the most recent polls and update the map every day. If the election were held today and the vote came out exactly as the polls show, for instance, Obama would win 326 - 212. Of course, many of these are within the margin of error...

http://electoral-vote.com/

The nest is Huffington Post's page, which averages the polls and makes a prediction. As you can see, they have a "tossup" category where the numbers are too close to call.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... ctoral-map

Then there's The New York Times' 538 Blog, which is generally pretty accurate:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I follow the fivethirtyeight blog. I enjoy it.

I think it will be around 250-300 for Obama and around 230-280 for Romney.

Well then I guess it's decided then.

Meaning its Obama has the advantage put if Ohio or Florida flip it becomes interesting.

I can't really see Obama losing Ohio. Auto industry...

anyways biggest wildcard this election are the super pacs.

Repulicans ones are planning to spend over a billion + and Unions are planning to spend 400 million for Democrats.


lol these numbers are crazy, in Canada each party can spend only around 20 million dollars.

This.

According to Freakanomics, money only changes the election results by one percent.

that could make a difference ^^

No. It won't.

Yes it does...

A 1 % national change can have such effects on the electoral college.

Polls have had Obama and Romney around a few points around each other so 1% makes a difference.

I think because of the super pacs Obama will have a tougher time and that is why he is and his supporters are crying foul over all the money Romney is getting,

It won't matter.

I dont know

You think the election will be cakewalk...

I think it will be a well fought out election.

I agree with Chip, I think Obama will win, but don't argue with Chip, there is no point, you'll never change his mind.

It is unchangeable!

I think Obama will win but this is no 1996 or 1984...

Obviously. It's 2012.

What if the 1% comes from Texas and California? Meaning Romney does way better in California (or NY) than McCain but loses and does way better in Texas than McCain? What difference would that make?

That depends on turnout as well, I would imagine. Turnout in Texas is abysmal.

"What if the 1% comes from Texas and California?"

What if it comes from Florida or Ohio or the close states.


You have to remember usually if there is a 1% change nationally, there is greater or less change in each state.

Glad that you have everything covered in the second sentence.

Ever since Groucho posted the 538 blog, I read it every day up until the end of the election. I loved the headlines after the election that said, "Math wins!". Very positive for Nate Silver.