100% disagree entirely. Respectfully, I think you are dramatically underestimating how greatly his post-2020 election actions have negatively impacted him with undecideds. Trump's peak unpopularity with average American voters was in 2021 and 2022. His presence is a big reason republicans struggled in 2022. Nearly all of Trump's aggressively backed election denying candidates failed. I do not think he has recovered much at all since then. I highly, highly doubt all of the criminal stuff since then has done him any favors with suburban voters, nor do I think the rape stuff has helped with women, areas he struggled badly in 2020. His 2024 polling almost NEVER gets beyond the mid 40s for this reason. The Democrats needed a candidate with less baggage to capitalize on it, and now look highly likely to get one. Had it been DeSantis polling against Biden these past 3 months, Ron would have significantly larger lead than what Trump had.

I still see the election being closer than the Obama years but today has not been a good day for republicans at all.

I mean they’ve already taken polls of Harris vs Trump, and before the debate she was doing WORSE than Biden. Now she does a percent or 2 better. Not saying she can’t improve but acting like this seals the deal for Dems now is ridiculous.

And Trump is absolutely less unpopular now than he was in 2020. He was behind by 10% nationally by some polls and only lost by 4%. he was polling a full 10-15% ahead of 2020 before today

I listen to focus groups. There are such voters known as Two Time Trump voters who are interested in not voting for Trump again. Excel is right on the money. January 6th was really a shit show for Trump that turned off people from him. Why do you think MAGA Election Deniers lost poorly in 2022? Why do you think at the RNV outside of a brief remark from Carlson no one mentioned the 2020 election despite Trump nonstop talking about it for the past four years (and unable to resist talking about it on Thursday).

A lot of these Focus Groups also struggled to find much sympathy for Trump after his attempted assassination and were turned off by his acceptance speech.

Dems will win if they play smart. They are back to being down by only a slight amount.

It won’t be easy as the anti-woke sentiment might make a comeback with Harris being black and a woman. But a smart VP pick will help and Trump’s mouth will help too. At the end of the day he is a bad candidate outside of his base

I feel like if Biden stepped down last December (when he was losing by the same amount) and they had a primary the Democrats would've had a non Harris candidate like Shapiro or Whitmer emerge as a new star for them and gone on to win. But, they basically repeated the 2016 mistake when they tried to coronate their candidate. Now they're stuck with one of the worst major political candidates of all time who is as easy to make fun of in soundbites as Palin and as inauthentic as Hillary. She's clearly been the one they want this whole time but when she was in the primary she somehow didn't even make it to 2020, she was below people like Yang and Gabbard in the polls by the end. It was like the Marvels where you couldn't believe the floor was that low.

Shack, were you watching her as the vp candidate? She nailed every speech and dominated Pence in the debate. Her political skills have become very underrated, republicans are setting expectation way too low. She is much better than Palin and is more friendly than Hillary.

So ready to embrace the Coconut Tree lifestyle.

I feel bad for Biden considering that he did do a lot of good. It needed to be done though. Trump is still the favorite, but this gives us a chance at least. And going with Kamala sends the message "everything about Biden that you liked will stay, but everything you didn't like will change."

Her speeches are just her saying the same thing over again using different order of words, and her debate against Mike pence was mostly her pulling the woman card. “‘Mr vice president I’m speaking” lol.

She could win but it would only be because people were voting against Trump, not cuz anyone likes her

I think Kamala the Cop can win now that Defund the Police’s movement has died and the Democrats have become more than the Republicans the party of Law and Order

Hahahahaha.

Part of the reason Kamala is unpopular is her history as AG of California.

Until you look at her record and how successful she was.

Josh Shapiro is the obvious choice for VP as that basically guarantees Pennsylvania for the Dems which they will absolutely need to win. Whether he can also bring Michigan and Wisconsin in their camp remains to be seen.

I’ve heard the argument for a double female ticket being a bold strategy that would lean into their winning message on abortion and look to lock up the female voting block, much like how Vance looks to lock up the young male voting block. Problem is I think the pro-Democracy message is what tips them over to winning the election. So a Shapiro or even picking a general might be a better choice

VP picks help with state level infrastructure and certain voting blocks. JD Vance is not doing a single thing to appeal to anyone who already was not team Trump. They really fumbled that pick and Trump's speech.

Shapiro is obviously a solid choice who checks every box. Mark Kelly is in also an interesting VP choice because he would definitely have midwestern appeal, but his infrastructure is in Arizona, which could be a saving grace given how close Wisconsin was last time, though I am not sure of his overall political skills.

If Dems feel good about their existing chances in PA/Midwest, Kelly would be strong pick.

I really like the idea of bringing in someone with a military background like Kelly, but I think the left field pick that makes sense is a General

Signature on that letter does not match Joe Biden’s usual signature, maybe signed against his will, if even from him?. His separate X endorsement of Kamala Harris likely came from the coup too, rather than from Biden who likely refused to endorse her in the letter.

Crowdstrike/Microsoft outage last Friday, was it to prepare this coup or to cover up deep state’s involvement in Trump’s assassination attempt? Or both? I bet Kamala will be installed as president before the DNC, and Biden will not give any live, non-pre-taped speech in front of crowd again.

I am slowly but surely moving towards Mark Kelly. Pretty sure he will be my final choice.

I think Dems chances in PA and MI are strong/very strong already. Arizona becomes very valuable, especially with Wisconsin looking strong.

Checks every box, including not losing a Dem senate seat.

Those that say Biden was brave to step down and praise him are lying to themselves. He was forced out against his will, plain and simple. He won 2020 because he was the most moderate of the democrats, people voted for him not Harris people also forget Trump got 70 million votes last time in a loss.

Trump is less popular now though and cannot crack 48 percent even when running practically unopposed

I hope you're right, Excel. But given your box office predictions, I'm not holding out much hope

I always thought they should push this dude in an election one day (North Carolina governor Roy Cooper) cause he has a classic "presidential look". Maybe that would be a good idea to put Harris with him.

Happy to see the denizens of WoKJ QAnon are having a really normal day.

He didn't have to do it though. In 2028, when people are telling Trump that he is too old and that running for a third term might irrevocably damage our democratic process, do you think he will willingly give up power? Of course not. Giving up power isn't easy. See: January 6th, 2021 (though somewhat ironically, this event looks like it actually stopped the steal from happening in hindsight, as all other conservatives were kinda like "ewwww are we with them?")

He cannot run for a third term because of the 22d ammendment that was established after Roosvelt got 4 terms.

I don't think Biden really had a choice. Pelosi told him it can be the easy way or the hard way. They probably would've used 25th amendment to force him out.