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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39309
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
AOC has some strengths in that she actually has real beliefs and is on the shortlist of politicians who understand social media messaging, but since she's too far left there is a good chance of a blowout against her.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:15 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11430 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Shack wrote: AOC has some strengths in that she actually has real beliefs and is on the shortlist of politicians who understand social media messaging, but since she's too far left there is a good chance of a blowout against her. I tend to agree with this. I think the moment for an AOC type or Sanders type win was 2016.
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:04 pm |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11395 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
But times are and will change, that she will have no chance now and not even in 10 years seems right, but let's say by 2040, with her being a veteran by then, I can see her being in a good position to compete for the presidency.
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:31 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67838
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
stuffp wrote: But times are and will change, that she will have no chance now and not even in 10 years seems right, but let's say by 2040, with her being a veteran by then, I can see her being in a good position to compete for the presidency. Liberals will never learn You get a pass because you're not American, but actual American liberals really do think like this. They just keep kidding themselves that everyone in their country is like them, and that everybody wants a female leader (they don't!). For AOC to win she will need to go back in time, change her heritage and her gender.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 3:16 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32450 Location: the last free city
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
It’s amazing Trump has lived this long with the drugs & that diet
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 4:51 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39309
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
I think it'll happen when both candidates are female. If Trump didn't turn his head this election probably would've been Haley defeating Harris.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 4:53 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20892 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
A Republican woman could easily beat a democrat man. With a democrat woman it’s an uphill battle since none of them have charisma besides maybe Gretchen Whitmer with that charming midwestern Accent. Or maybe Amy Klobuchar.
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Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:57 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Wes Moore with friendly populist message. AOC maybe could be VP only if Shapiro says no.
If Shapiro is still even remotely popular by early 2028, the guy has to be on the Dem ticket, period.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Wed Nov 13, 2024 1:26 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39309
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Chance of running vs chance of winning primary
Shapiro - Chance of running A, chance of winning B, total: A-/B+ Newsom - Chance of running A, chance of winning C, total: B Beshear - Chance of running A, chance of winning C, total: B Whitmer - Chance of running A, chance of winning C, total: B Moore - Chance of running B, chance of winning B, total: B Walz - Chance of running B, chance of winning B, total: B Pritzker - Chance of running B, chance of winning C, total: B-/C+ Buttigieg - Chance of running B, chance of winning D, total: C AOC - Chance of running D, chance of winning B, total: C Michelle - Chance of running F, chance of winning A, total: C Harris - Chance of running D, chance of winning C, total: C-/D+
Shapiro is probably the best overall odds because he is a shoo-in to run which you can’t say for a lot of these candidate and is a better candidate than other ones that are like Newsom (Whitmer is downgraded because I think they would get cold feet at nominating yet another female).
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Nov 13, 2024 10:02 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20892 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Newsom is incredibly unlikable he would surely lose
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Wed Nov 13, 2024 10:31 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Shack your odds for Kamala are way too low. If she decides to run, I think she instantly becomes the favorite. She created a ton of fans in 2024.
Re: Newsome yeah for real nobody wants a slick corporate Claifornia liberal. Shapiro might be little slick for the 2028 mood. They need someone who feels real and feels authentic. Yes it sadly 100% meeds to be a guy.
Of the candidates listed, 100% think Wes Moore is the most clear and obvious break. Just a totally different vibe from him. A combo ticket of Wes Moore/Josh Shapiro or Wes Moore/Gretchen Whitmer is almost too predictable.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:28 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39309
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
She lost by too much, it'd be like if Kerry or Romney had been nominees again, nobody wants it. She could be governor of California after Newsom though.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 1:09 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
LOL no
Harris didn't spend 2 years campaigning like Kerry did. Gore likely wins in 2020. Harris is not a normal losing candidate.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:49 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11430 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
I think Harris is damaged goods. She is not the leader of a movement like Trump is and I think she only wins if Trump tanks the economy again
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 10:00 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20892 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
I live in Pennsylvania and Shapiro is INCREDIBLY popular here. If Harris had chosen him she wins PA easily, and he’d probably win PA in 2028 easily as well.
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 10:26 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
Shapiro-Whitmer: Revenge of the Dems
Wes Moore remains my fave. He needs to intentionally take an unconventional path.
He should spend 2025 and 2026 on all the podcasts, avoid any of these SOTU response type of things.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:09 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11430 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Election 2028 (if it happens)
The mainstream media has changed over the last eight years in that Fox News and X and Joe Rogan and Tik Tokmare the biggest names in media these days. The Right has taken over media. If the Left wants any hope they need to push more into social media in meaningful ways. Right now it is littered with Russian bots and conspiracy theorists and the Alt Right.
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Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:37 pm |
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