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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39304
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
I always fall for the most left wing women.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:53 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39304
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
At this point I'll be disappointed if Trump doesn't win based on the early voting, but as I believe the most important part of the current moment is the cultural/psychological battle against the woke or commies (if there's a difference), I could talk myself into a scenario where conservatives being on the bottom for another four years actually turns more people against them than getting re-energized hating Trump.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Nov 01, 2024 4:39 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48673 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Shack wrote: At this point I'll be disappointed if Trump doesn't win based on the early voting, but as I believe the most important part of the current moment is the cultural/psychological battle against the woke or commies (if there's a difference), I could talk myself into a scenario where conservatives being on the bottom for another four years actually turns more people against them than getting re-energized hating Trump. It’s giving DP07’s other species.
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Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:55 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14979 Location: Everywhere
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Not if you know the nuance.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 2:10 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
In the last 14 days, DT has fawned over Arnold Palmer's huge cock, pretended to work a shift at McDonalds, driven a garbage truck and given a speech while in uniform, and now has pretended to give a blowjob to a microphone. zwackerm wrote: I can’t imagine how a married couple could be ideologically different they vote for different candidates AND your marriage is healthy. Your values should be aligned so you always vote for the same person IMO Zack I love you bud but what? Many many MANY couples have the same values and translate them to different candidates. Mutual respect is essential in any successful relationship.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 5:13 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48673 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Ann Selzer’s final Iowa poll is:
Harris: 47 Trump: 44
This is an actual polling earthquake lol
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 7:46 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32449 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 8:22 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32449 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Yes the tune is starting to shift towards trying to dispute the election before it even happens.Bannon comes out of jail and immediately starts justifying why the Trump orbit is justified in challenging the election. Same playbook as 2020 same outcome will happen
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 8:26 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32449 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Libs wrote: Ann Selzer’s final Iowa poll is:
Harris: 47 Trump: 44
This is an actual polling earthquake lol A prediction back in September
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 8:31 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20890 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
This poll is such an outlier it can be disregarded ImO. This is like all of a sudden getting a poll that says Trump is up 6 in Colorado or Virginia
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:03 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48673 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
zwackerm wrote: This poll is such an outlier it can be disregarded ImO. This is like all of a sudden getting a poll that says Trump is up 6 in Colorado or Virginia I don’t think Kamala is going to win Iowa but doubt Queen Ann at your peril! There’s a reason she has the reputation she does:
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:17 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32449 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:21 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20890 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Libs wrote: zwackerm wrote: This poll is such an outlier it can be disregarded ImO. This is like all of a sudden getting a poll that says Trump is up 6 in Colorado or Virginia I don’t think Kamala is going to win Iowa but doubt Queen Ann at your peril! There’s a reason she has the reputation she does:
What could she have possibly picked up on that Emerson missed by 14 percent
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:41 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32449 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Women won’t let that orange man beat another woman ever again!!!
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:50 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11429 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
I watched a video explaining how a lot of pollsters weight their polls to try and find tipping point groups, and often times miss the demographic that plays the biggest factor in an election. In 2016 the hidden voting block was uneducated white workers turning from Obama to Trump. Based off of Iowa’s demos and Bulwark focus groups, this hidden group might be older white women, particularly rural white woman leaving Trump for Harris.
Once again, it comes down to two words: Party Switch.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:03 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20890 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
On the bright side if Harris wins hopefully Republicans can have their 2008 moment with a fresh candidate in 2028
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:12 pm |
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pro1986
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:28 am Posts: 505
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Ann is a GOAT at this so this is awful for Trump. Also when you factor in the disaster is weak Trump has had and woman turning out in huge huge numbers. Harris is looking good for Tuesday. Trump has done everything he needed in this last week to lose this election.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:16 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11429 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
I’m still nervous because their could be a hidden number of minority voters in places like Virginia coming out for Trump.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:30 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20890 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
I hope. Still think it will be very close but feeling the pills are more akin to 2022 than 2020 or 2016.
I just remember how disappointed I was that night and want to keep expectations low.
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Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:59 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39304
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
She has a good track record so maybe her and Lichtman will get the last laugh but she needs an insane turnaround in registration party in early vote vs end result from 2020 just to break even in Iowa let alone gain 10 pts. Or she could just be a Trump is threat to democracy/abortion heavy lib.
Harris to beat the archetypal elder Biden with seniors by 30 points?
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:05 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 24542 Location: Classified
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
President Hawk Tuah?
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 1:41 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39304
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
There’s got to be a point where the Obama era style of Democrat campaigns gets tired. They made the real Kamala go on SNL to do a skit with the fake one? What, no way. A lineup of Diddy guestlist celebs endorsing, trying to make joy and vibes like a version of 08 change campaign.They’re desperately trying to recreate it because a) Obama has stuck around Washington trying to still have power the most of any president in modern history, most disappeared and went to a ranch or something, except for the running again Trump b) The current version of the Democrats are worse leaving them like a nostalgia music act that still has a lot of fans from the hit years.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 6:06 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Kamala is not going to win Iowa, but perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the poll Becomes clear when one remembers there was a very recent pole showing Trump only up three in Ohio and only up 5 in Kansas. We hav Heard a lot about Harris supposedly making gains with white voters, particularly the educated or senior. There are a lot of older or educated white people in all of those states.
With Iowa specifically, they have a strict six week abortion band in place statewide that is extremely Unpopular, and Tim Walz is supposedly someone viewed very favorably within Iowa itself
Has been noted, she’s not going to win the state, but it’s apparently running much closer than normal with these demographics that make up much of the Midwest, you know her campaign is praying that dynamic into the rust belt as well
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:56 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48673 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Shack wrote: There’s got to be a point where the Obama era style of Democrat campaigns gets tired. They made the real Kamala go on SNL to do a skit with the fake one? What, no way. A lineup of Diddy guestlist celebs endorsing, trying to make joy and vibes like a version of 08 change campaign.They’re desperately trying to recreate it because a) Obama has stuck around Washington trying to still have power the most of any president in modern history, most disappeared and went to a ranch or something, except for the running again Trump b) The current version of the Democrats are worse leaving them like a nostalgia music act that still has a lot of fans from the hit years. Dude, you’re a Trump suppprter. You have no room to talk about a political campaign being old, tired, and predictable.
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 10:16 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22131 Location: Places
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Re: 2024 election - Trump vs Harris (the final countdown)
Very Kamala-friendly polls in this morning from NYT. So Harris has received good-to-great final polling news from NYT, Marist, and Selzer.
I don't want to jinx it so I will not be commenting on the direction of momentum.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sun Nov 03, 2024 10:56 am |
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