Even by the standard of the Trump hatchet job court cases, the one built on claiming he overvalued Mar a Lago (In addition to it looks like it's worth as much as he said just based on the property/land and nearby much smaller ones that sold, that it's now a part of history obviously increases its value) is especially ridiculous. I hope it makes more people realize the endless Trump court cases are a sham by people who have done a mental calculation that stopping Trump from winning an election (since they think he's orange Mussolini) is more important to them than trying to use their legal power in a fair way.

Dude, I think it is pretty cut and dry that he overvalued Mar a Largo. A lot of these cases pre-date the election of 2016 and appear to be giving us on the outside of the Trump orbit looking in clarity as to why someone like him ran to begin with.

Haley losing by 20% in her home state despite her votes being inflated by Democrats voting for her... this primary was lopsided

I for one think the numbers are alarming considering she is not dropping out of the race. If she does not support Trump before the general then this could really hurt him as it could lead to lower turnout

Kind of think he should do it if it increases the chance of winning

I mean Trump has no platform or policy in place. He just wants to run to give himself immunity and make all his past crimes go away. Problem is his White Christian Nationalist overlords wouldn’t like that in their pursuit of a Theocratic Dictatorship.

Good on the Democrat judges proving they’re not a lock to vote on what left activists want every time.

Judges don’t have party affiliation

Shockingly strong speech for Biden. Well done, that was fantastic. Maybe the best speech I have seen him give. Republican analysts 100% having "oh shit" moments right because this guy doesn't resemble the caricature they've created. The guy we just saw will crush Trump with the current record.

Still so proud of Joe! What an epic speech! The "he's senile". crowd has shut the fuck up REAL quick.

I heard he got no poll bump

I think the last person to get a poll bump was Obama in 2009z it just doesn’t happen. But what it does as Excel mentioned is negate a lot of the sentiment that Biden is too old for sympathetic skeptics which is good for enthusiasm. If voters can get enthusiastic for Biden, Trump will lose. It is a step forward if only for eliminating an obstacle.

But what is perhaps more interesting is Pence coming out against Trump. If Haley voters bend towards Biden it will give him the edge to win. These are 2020 Trump voters who flip or don’t show in 2024. It is an odd path for Biden as he is appealing more to these moderate swing voters than unenthusiastic base voters, the exact opposite of Trump who is all about churning out red meat to drive up enthusiasm amongst the base even if it alienates the middle.

I figure Trump should either choose a black running mate which might psych out the race obsessed left more when attacking him, or someone moderate on abortion, which Tim Scott is not. Top 5 on predict it are Scott (24c), Noem (17c), Vivek (14c), Stefanik (11c), Gabbard (8c).

The most obvious dynamic of the entire race thus far is that Donald Trump's aggregate support has clearly declined since the 2020 election, which he obviously lost. His core base is definitely more vocal, but it is creating a bit of a mirage as a result. No question 99% of the Republicans who voted Haley in 2024 voted for Trump in 2020, but it's pretty clear that MAYBE 75% of them are going to vote for Trump again. Pence and so many other GOP coming out against him absolutely signals a serious enthusiasm dip from mainstream Republicans, and these are people who would NEVER vote for Biden. This is very clear in most polling where Trump continues to show support ceilings in the lower to mid 40s. The odds of that ceiling growing are generally very low. Biden's numbers have been low due to the constant narrative surrounding his age, should he dispel this notion, his numbers will quickly rise as support consolidates behind him.

Why was the SOTU so damaging for Republicans? To moderate swing voters in swing states, the high level dynamics of the race for Trump and Republicans are basically that:
1) rival Biden has been fairly successfully with general economic and domestic policy, and also has not gone off the far left deep end that claimed he would several years ago, his one clear policy weakness is the border, which is not a big enough of issue itself to sway an entire election
2 )the January 6th stuff is horrific for GOP candidate Trump to any non-true MAGA person, Trump has many more obvious weaknesses than Biden
3) the overturning of Roe v Wade and constant dysfunctional of House Republicans present broader stain on Republicans, recently reinforced by backing out of the border bill after months of talking about it. Trends from 2020, 2022, and 2023 state elections all reinforce the general theme.

Short of an economic collapse between now and November, the Republicans best hope with swing voters in swing states is to convince them that Biden is too old and is losing his mind, basically, and it will reflect in policy soon even if it has not necessarily happened already. The SOTU being such a rousing, universally praised speech just destroyed that vision of the 2024 Biden in the eyes of most voters. Unlike 2020, where Biden didn't give his major speeches in front of crowds due to covid, his 2024 convention speech will likely be a repeat the state of the union. Republicans will likely have a much more difficult time defining Biden as a basement campaigning cripple in 2024 as they did in 2020.

Should Biden continue to show that type of energy, and the economy continue its current trajectory, he is clearly in the favorable position. Add in the call;enging broader dynamics for Republicans and Trump especially? Lets be serious with how this will likely turn out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qXZWF66RIo

perfect video and feel like the narrative is indeed starting to shift

I think you are underestimating how much progressives are turned off from Biden post Gaza. I have talked to a few progressive friends of mine and they either think Biden and Trump are basically the same or they think a more chaotic driven world will push more people to the left later on.

I always thought if the same 2020 Trump voters just dug their heels in and voted for him again he could win because of chance Biden would be less popular, plus after being behind in vote by mail tactics in 2020 and 2022 it was inevitable the Republicans would adjust, which it looks like they're doing with Lara Trump talking about adopting legal ballot harvesting. So it depends if it's true or if excel is right that the lawfare has actually worked and bled his support from 2020 when he had already been under massive media attacks for 5 years. I'm skeptical of the polls but right now the swing from 2020 is pretty massive as Biden was polled as leading by 8-9 points at this stage while the current ones have Trump up by 2, when he doesn't need to win the popular vote and the last few elections he did better than the polls.

It's trendy for a tiny group of Dems to say it now, this group is much smaller and not near as committed to it as the Republican 'never Trumpers' are to that cause. Occupy Wall Street happened at the end of Obama's first term. Respectfully, anyone who thinks "Biden and Trump are basically the same" are morons, and I think 99.9% of the public would agree.

Trump: "we're going to put a 100% tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell those cars... If I get elected. Now if I don't get elected, it's going to be a bloodbath for the whole, it's going to be the least of it, it's going to be a bloodbath for the country. But they're not going to sell those cars, they're building massive factories..."

Media (NBC News, NY Times, etc.): Trump promises bloodbath if not elected

Biden Harris campaign: "Tonight, Donald Trump said there would be a 'bloodbath' if he wasn't elected [...] He wants another January 6, but the American people are going to give him another electoral defeat this November because they continue to reject his extremism, his affection for violence, and his thirst for revenge."

The Democrats are political opportunists so there is no chance that hearing a debunk will affect Biden referencing the latter interpretation of the quote going forward.

Fair point Shack, but that’s gotta be the dumbest fucking shit I ever heard from Trump. Like how can serious people listen to this guy and think, “gee, that guy sounds like he knows what he is talking about.” He sounds like he slurred together a bunch of sound bites

DT still has his moments but generally has regressed tremendously from 2016, 10x more than Biden appears too. DT is obviously under the serious stress from external factors....so could explain it.

Oh yes the general consensus is that Trump is way more senile than Biden!

He does that shit on purpose though. He knows the bloodbath line is going to stand out, provoke outrage and make headlines. Then his more reasonably followers will defend the line by saying that he didn't actually say what he said while his fanatical supporters will say We Hear You Loud And Clear.

His comment saying some illegal immigrants aren’t people is probably the one they should’ve focused on, but they reached for the bloodbath thing hoping it would be bigger and cause their main pitch this election will be that voting for the other party is a threat to democracy