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 International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.) 
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
I hope Lula wins. It seems Brazil is having its Trump re-election moment with an election fraud accusation almost guaranteed if Bolsonaro doesn't win.

It would be better for the world if Lula wins.

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Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:52 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
I hope Bolsonaro pulls through though looks unlikely


Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:41 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
The rest of the right apparently won in congress. I think Lula is just really popular iconic figure there despite becoming a convict since his earlier presidency.

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:10 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)


Not bad proposal by Elon but I think neither side would go for that election re-do

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:53 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Russia may not even be what triggers a potential world war if North Korea actually hits Japan with one of their missiles. They fired one over Japan for the first time since 2017 yesterday. The last time it happened (2017), Trump made his NK would be met with "fire and fury" comment if they hit Japan.

The U.S., as most know I think, is obligated to defend Japan from attack due to their peace treaty, and according to experts, they would in the event one of NK's missile tests would stray and hit Japan. Even if a missile "accidentally" hit them, Japan would certainly retaliate and trigger the U.S. response to step in, too. (Not to mention a potential, likely, NATO response, too, since Japan is allied with them.)

I know it's NK being NK, but all it'd take is a malfunction or miscalculation on their part.

China would be the only one to help NK in this scenario, I think, but would they actually do it?

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Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:50 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
This is not the time, Kim

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Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:34 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Corpse wrote:
I know it's NK being NK, but all it'd take is a malfunction or miscalculation on their part.

China would be the only one to help NK in this scenario, I think, but would they actually do it?


Nope. Not a chance. At least not militarily. Maybe diplomatically, and it would certainly play defence for North Korea domestically while staying neutral internationally. China just has nothing to gain by helping North Korea out of a mess they created all by themselves.

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Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:44 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
OPEC sided with Russia, meaning the West will have even more oil problems.

The US is in dumb position where they could drill more of their own to make up for it, but can't cause they've talked such a big game about climate change.

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Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:30 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Yup, OPEC is looking to punish the West, funny enough, right before the American midterms

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Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:30 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
There is a great article on the BBC today about how Putin's war is going. It's really promising for the good guys. Basically, unless he uses nuclear weapons (which I do not believe he will) he's going to lose. So many things point towards that. But I also think he's willing to go down in a blaze of glory - I just hope by that time he won't be able to. A Kremlin spokeswoman came out and said that Russia is still committed to never having a nuclear war, but this feels thin. Why wouldn't Putin come out and say that instead? Putin can be at odds with official policy, and Russia can still use nuclear weapons because what he says goes.

A big test for Putin is now when these conscripts start coming home in coffins, which many of them obviously will. Supplies are bad or non-existent, soldiers are under-equipped, everything is looking bleak. It's not a good start for another Russian offensive, and that low feeling will multiply when their buddies are being blown to pieces or riddled with bullet holes. I don't really see any way that Putin will be able to retake lands lost in recent weeks, and when he loses more land back to Ukraine, I just don't see how he doesn't resort to nuclear warheads of some sort.

He said he wasn't bluffing and that he will use all weapons at his disposal. I think he wants the west to think nuclear here, which of course is part of it, but I think he has more weapons than that - such as the recent bombing of civilian infrastructure and residential areas. That is one of the weapons of his arsenal. Nuclear weapons are just the final final final weapon in his arsenal, but he has lots to use before that time comes. In that time, of course, lots of Russian soldiers will perish. I suppose all we can do is hope that pressure gets insurmountable in Russia and either he accepts defeat or he is ousted from power, because otherwise this isn't going to end well for anybody.

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Fri Oct 07, 2022 3:09 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
My impression is Ukraine is trying to make a push before Russian mobilized forces and winter weather (less leaves is bad for them). Today was first time in a while I heard Russia having some success on offense as they are threatening to take Bakhmut, although Ukraine is still on the attack in other places.

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Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:29 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
It's so easy to lose hope in the world sometimes. Today I learned of the UN Human Rights Council's vote on whether to investigate the Uighur genocide in Xinjiang, and there were 19 votes of NO, 17 votes of YES, and 11 abstentions. China has essentially bought off all the other dictatorial regimes and said "if they investigate us, you're next", and they all fell in line and supported China when it mattered. So it looks as if genocide is accepted on planet Earth.

Why the fucking hell are some of these countries even on the Human Rights Council???!! They have no place being there. They don't give a shit about human rights. They are the opposite of human rights. Eritrea, Pakistan, Qatar ... these countries (including China) have no place on this board. And shame on you, Mexico, for abstaining.

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Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:10 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Vote abstention is such an abused procedure. If you're abstaining, you're effectively giving up your voice on the matter. In regard to the UN, some countries prefer to stay neutral on certain issues, but it's like they're turning a blind eye to the world and not exactly part doing their part as a "United Nation" in doing so.

I understand it, but I sure as hell don't agree with it.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:31 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Abstainees are essentially siding with the NO voters here while also having the gall to hold their hands up and say "we did nothing wrong". Yeah, but you did nothing right either.

Frustratingly, Ukraine abstained from this vote, which might be to do with the war, but then I can't imagine their Human Rights Council member is on the frontline, so this really upsets me particularly since I root for them and consider them an ally, one of the good guys, etc. I get it that Ukraine thinks it needs to keep China on side in order for them to mediate this war and hopefully influence Russia away from escalation etc. but this is a lost cause. I understand they want to pick their battles and this one isn't the right battle to pick now, but the democracies of the world are helping Ukraine a lot, so a bit of payback would have been nice. Instead, they've looked after their own. Ukraine would be flattened right now if not for the collective west. China also isn't a country that has much sway over Russia, in my opinion. You need to stand up to genocide whenever you can, not just when it suits you.

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Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:47 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
How weak and inferior does Russia look right now? The Russia-Crimean bridge explosion, the sinking of the Moskva, the aircraft hangar explosions, the huge loss of gains on the mainland, the conscription and subsequent protests, the mass exodus of conscription age Russians, hitting civilian buildings, the desperate and illegitimate annexation, and Putin's go-to bluster of a nuclear attack.

The hallmarks of a losing side. It looks more like the downfall of an empire, the complete opposite of what Putin hoped to achieve.

Ukraine, on the other hand, look smart, dedicated, and just five steps ahead of Russia at every turn.

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Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:59 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Ukraine’s second largest bank, Monobank, says it has already issued a new debit card design featuring the collapsed bridge.

:funny:

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Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:34 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:

Ukraine, on the other hand, look smart, dedicated, and just five steps ahead of Russia at every turn.


I am sure with a lot of help from the Allies.

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Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:18 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Algren wrote:

Ukraine, on the other hand, look smart, dedicated, and just five steps ahead of Russia at every turn.


I am sure with a lot of help from the Allies.


Most definitely.

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Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:38 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Uh oh, things just escalated with Russia missile attack...

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Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:30 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
I don't know. It's being covered as BREAKING NEWS, very important, etc. but this doesn't feel that big to me. Russia already attacked the capital city during this war. If anything this just shows how desperate and out-of-ideas Russia really is. They're essentially throwing their toys out the pram because they cannot get what they want. It's a sulky move, in my opinion. "You damaged our bridge so we're going to kill some innocent civilians". It's a mafia mentality. If you cross them, they threaten your family. They have no code of honour.

Edit: Ok, this feels larger. Attacks are happening all over Ukraine, in multiple cities. 75 rockets in total (so far). This feels like the start of something. As if Russia will just continuously launch rockets and pummel civilian centres until Ukraine surrenders. It's a shitty way to win, but it will probably prove effective. This feels like an Israel-Palestine situation all over again. I can see this war never actually ending.

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Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:58 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Turkey and Hungary are kind of caught in the middle as countries in NATO that feel more like Russia's style. Erdogan redemption arc if he can mediate talks between the West and Russia.

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Mon Oct 10, 2022 4:05 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
The 20th National Congress of the CCP is coming up on 16th October, and here's how they ensure a smooth event; fabricate a virus spike with some new "fast-spreading" variants. So now in people's compounds there are tents going up for mass testing, extra guards to check temperatures, etc. It hasn't happened yet, but it will, to ensure the government event goes by without a hiccup. The CCP can literally do anything as long as they pad it out a few days in advance that a virus spike is likely. People in China are so petrified about the virus because it has been constantly drummed up by state media that it's worst than death.

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Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:23 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
So what’s the scoop on Liz Truss?


Based on some of the recent news (especially the past day or two), sounds like her time as PM could already be up soon... It's only been 6 weeks.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:21 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Very little territory gained either way for Russia or Ukraine the last few weeks

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Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:22 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Ukraine is making gains near Kherson, along the Dnipro. Russia is making gains, albeit smaller, in the city of Bakhmut.

The mobilized Russian forces are, as we all expected, canon fodder. Many already dead. I expect this war will reach a sort of battle stalemate for a while, as we've seen in the last 1-2 weeks with not much movement from either side but casualties will still mount up for Russia. Until they've lost enough men, then we'll see major gains, but if they still have personnel they can just use them as a human wall for a few weeks and months. I also expect it to only escalate when those men run low.

But Russia is also using the Wagner Group, and they're deadly, having fought in Syria for Russia. Plus a new invasion general, who is apparently a ruthless badass. So the it could still go either way right now.

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Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:19 pm
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