I think Barbie gets a BP nom as a consolation prize

Unless someone big dies, I don't see how Cillian Murphy loses. He is well-respected and the film is huge.

If Killers or Holdovers wins Best Picture over Oppenheimer they could carry their lead over him

Just checked and last time the Best Actor won best Best Picture was ... The King's Speech. Wow, would've thought it happened more frequently than that. Supporting actor seems to lead to BP more often. Good news for DeNiro.

Will the nose controversy make Maestro DOA for awards?

Actor - Murphy
Supporting actor - DeNiro
Actress - Greta Lee
Supporting actress - Lily Gladstone
Director - Greta Gerwig
Best picture - KOTFM
Animated - Spider-verse
Original screenplay - Barbie
Adapted screenplay - KOTFM

The only certainty I feel is that DeNiro is going to be the biggest lock of the season if the performance lives up to expectations. Feels very much like Streep for The Iron Lady with the win 29 years after her last one and also to celebrate her career. Would be 43 years since his last win for Raging Bull. Only had 1 nomination in the last 32 years but had 4 nominations in a 6 year window from 1975 - 1981 with 2 wins. Him in a villain role with Leo and Martin and Apple will give this huge buzz.

Im skeptical Past Lives gets major awards.

Probably not but I was on the fence on actress. Robbie has a great chance.

I don't think so, most people seem to agree it's ridiculous and the family came out and supported the movie and Bradley.

Dune shifting to 2024 I think really helps Oppenheimer especially and Barbie too awards contention wise though I wonder if March 2024 is too early for it to stay in the attention of the Academy for 2025's Oscars in major categories.

I don’t know if the same “fall / winter release” rules still apply. Everything Everywhere was a March release and basically swept, and Barbie and Oppenheimer are both July blockbusters, which haven’t had much Oscar success since the 90’s.

Put my money where my mouth is while in Jersey. $20 on Killers of the Flower Moon at +300 (3-1). They're not taking bets on any other categories yet though.

Poor Things has 93 on metacritic, Stone may be leader now for Best Actress

Ferrari has 74

Holdovers has 78 on metacritic however that could enough to be a feel good, mom friendly BP winner like Green Book and CODA

This year’s Pablo Lorrain movie is directed by Sofia Coppola (Priscilla) which has 84 on MC. Jacob Elordi plays Elvis - excel will be so happy!

Maestro - 93% RT, 81 MC

Good enough for its actors to compete for win

The TIFF People’s Choice went to the Jeffrey Wright film American Fiction.

Promising. TIFF has had a pretty good record of finding major Oscar contenders and winners.

Lily Gladstone is apparently campaigning in lead

Killers has worse reviews than the Irishman despite how critics would feel guilty about giving a movie about Native American plight a bad review. I think it will be good but not a masterpiece and won’t win BP.

Didn't it have like 97 on meta after Cannes?

If Killers isn't that strong this is gonna be smooth sailing for Oppenheimer.

97% on Rotten Tomatoes after 70+ reviews and the consensus reads "Enormous in runtime, theme, and achievement, Killers of the Flower Moon is a sobering appraisal of America's relationship with Indigenous peoples and yet another artistic zenith for Martin Scorsese and his collaborators."

Bad reviews where?

It has 89 on MC compared to 94 for the Irishman. I mean 89 is nothing to sniff at and maybe the Irishman’s is a little high, but I also think the native subject matter bought them a few points.

Best Actor is pretty easy: DiCaprio, Murphy, Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright will get in for American Fiction cause he screams respected/well liked veteran actor.

Return of the King, Titanic and Ben Hur had 11 wins.

Oppenheimer would need: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

All seem achievable but that would only be a tie. Would need makeup or fx to break the record. Possible with RDJs makeup and the bomb scene...

Would probably lose costume