Still not feeling it for Flower Moon BP, I think it will be the movie version of DiCaprio’s nom of them overlooking it for another more new winner in the end.

Needed a bit more momentum. Oppenheimer feels like its accelerated with the strike as no other movies can get much momentum without some type of commercial success since the cast can't campaign.

After seeing it, I don't think Killers has much of a chance for Pictue or Director (supporting actor and lead actress are still on the table though.) It's just way too long. The voters are gonna be splitting that screener up in to five or six parts. Oppenheimer v Barbie would be a great narrative to boost ratings and I think the oscars will go that route.

Sort of feels like Barbenheimer was the biggest movie story of the year (aside from the strike) so feels very fitting that they should be the top 2 contenders duking it out at the Oscars.

Moon's best bet is to go all in on the lifetime achievement route for DeNiro. It worked for Streep in The Iron Lady and DeNiro hasn't won in 43 years. I'm not sure if he'll have as juicy a role as this one.

But if Barbie momentum keeps up do think Gosling could realistically pull a darkhorse win too. For all of his serious work him winning for playing Ken in Barbie just seems like a good narrative.

I think Moon underwhelming though makes me feel better about Napoleon's chances. Apple may realize they have a strong chance there and go all in if it really takes off with audiences.

I talked myself out of it originally, but I do kind of like the idea of Barbie being in the mix for BP win and being this year’s EEAAO.

The Academy goes back and forth in terms of big crisis and then going overboard the next year in terms of pandering.

We haven't seen a best picture winner make $150M+ domestic since LOTR in 2003 20 years ago.
Haven't seen anything make more than $86M+ since Argo in 2012.

Forrest Gump ($330,151,138), Titanic ($674,396,795) remain the only other 2 movies to do $200M+ and win best picture.

With B+O both likely $330M+ by the time nominations are announced just a huge ratings bonanza potential to go all in on those two. Especially with Will Smith last year, the Barbenheimer phenom heating up would bring more positive attention rather than just opening up again last year's bad press.

Well, Barbie’s my favorite movie this year and Everything Everywhere was my favorite last year…

I think Barbie’s quite a long shot to win, but definitely should be BP nominated and at least in the running.

Personally I would love it if a gleefully ridiculous feminist fantasy comedy movie (that was also a box office phenom) won Best Picture this year. Between that (if it happens), EEAAO, and Parasite in 2019, all bets would be off for BP going forward.

Well not sure if it will do it, but doesn't help DeNiro's chance for an Oscar next year.

Maybe this will help clear the way for a Gosling win.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/robert-de- ... 235598288/

This lineup could be broken up by... Zac Efron!

Lily Gladstone better win Best Actress. We do not need Emma Stone winning again.

Emma Stone actually acts, though. I haven't seen Flower Moon yet but from what I've seen so far she just sits and stands expressionless for the entire movie.

But who am I kidding, winning BA Oscars isn't about acting.

Gladstone does a great job but she is the #3 lead in the film unlike the book where she is undisputably the main character. Not sure if that will negatively affect her chances or not. Emma's previous win will probably hurt her. Poor Things will have to settle for original screenplay and be happy with it.

I see lots of hype around Cooper's performance in Maestro but I don't buy it. Right now it feels like we're exactly where we were last year where people are trying to find alternatives to Everything Everywhere. We saw how that went. And rightly so. When you have an obvious winner why fight it? Oppenheimer is going to clean up.

With Wish disappointing reviews wide, Spider-Verse should have animated feature locked up.

Could they do the Boy and the Heron?

If they go the non commercial route, but probably not.

Best Picture: Oppenheimer (alt: The Holdovers/American Fiction pulls a CODA underdog win or maybe a Barbie surge)
Best Director: Nolan (no real alt, Gerwig I guess)
Best Actor: Cooper (alt: Murphy)
Best Actress: Robbie (alt: Stone)
Best Supporting Actor: Downey, Jr. (alt: Gosling)
Best Supporting Actress: Randolph (alt: one of the Color Purple girls)

I think Boy and the Heron could get a BP nomination for legacy reasons. Spiderverse should get one, but seems unlikely.

Suzume, Turtles and Nimona are all strong too. Disney could easily miss a nomination in animation.

What else is coming out in December that could be a big contender? I feel like there's a huge dearth this year

American Fiction could be a darkhorse. Got the People's Choice at TIFF so could be a big crowdpleaser.

Really seems like a Barbenheimer year. It feels like the 1994 pair up a bit of Forrest Gump and The Lion King commercially with Forrest Gump winning best picture. The strike has also limited the chance for stars to campaign so feels like it's going to be hard to get momentum to shift.

Nolan seems like the most likely director winner. He pushed hard against the studios for going in on streaming so his movie's success also gives a message to other filmmakers and the studios on the types of movies they want to keep seeing be made. Gerwig could pull an upset because it was such a risky movie to make and to become the biggest movie of the year was unbelievable.

The Color Purple is one of the last to drop but I’ve always had a unspectacular reviews prediction (maybe mid 70s metacritic), full of the same racist white meanies scenes we’ve seen before, and countering their 100% evil characters the black characters will be 100% flawless - the lack of nuance is less interesting.

The Iron Claw doesn’t have reviews yet and could be a sleeper for a nom

Color Purple definitely picked the wrong year (though to be fair, how could it have known?) There won't be nearly as much pressure to pick non-white winners with a global anti-woke backlash going on.

Maestro with a 76 on metacritic ... but its a lock to beat Oppenheimer for Best Actor according to the internet.

Whoever wrote this forum description - well done! I like it!

In a story worthy of American Fiction, the Poor Things Napoleon and the Maestro Nyad teamed up to travel Across the Spider-verse to a world of Past Lives where they could kill Oppenheimer before he invented the nuclear bomb, because they were fascists. They transported to their Zone of Interest, after spending a few hours as Holdovers in the Barbie universe, but when they reached their target, Napoleon revealed himself as working for the FBI and tried to arrest the Maestro. But the Maestro revealed himself as a secret member of the Killers of the Flower Moon, a trained assassin group. He choked Napoleon until he turned The Color Purple and his body scraping the ground had Saltburn, but Oppenheimer distracted the Maestro, and Napoleon pushed him off the edge of a building, flying through the Air. The Anatomy of the Fall would later show he was pushed, but nobody would ever know who did it or the redemption of Napoleon.

The only problem is I made Napoleon my main character and it’ll probably just get some tech nods

I wouldn't be shocked if Napoleon gets shut out. So disappointed!

Oppenheimer may just be so far ahead at this point. Barbie may be the only thing that pulls a surprise.

Spider-verse is also a sequel and in the Superhero genre. This could turn off voters