Usually I glaze over Variety's actors on actors articles but it's clear they know who the Oscar darlings will be this awards season.

Murphy and Margot interviewing each other. Wouldn't it be something if they somehow both took best actor / actress though that's not likely to happen it would lead to a ratings bonanza for the Academy if it did.

https://twitter.com/FilmUpdates/status/ ... 26/photo/1

Watching Maestro and my goodness this movie is terrible. What did Netflix spend more on: the budget or paying people to try and convince us this was a real contender?

BP predictions

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Barbie
Poor Things
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
Past Lives
American Fiction
The Iron Claw

The Iron Claw surprises with nom after voters emotionally respond to it.

The big shock, Scorsese is snubbed for Director nomination and one of DiCaprio or De Niro miss. The directors do their thing and nominate 2 artier picks like Triet, Song or Glazer making it a math problem for the supposed locks Nolan, Scorsese, Lanthimos and Gerwig.

As more see Boy and the Heron due to making short lists in categories outside of animation, I could see it as a dark horse for BP. Actors like Christian Bale (who stars) might have some clout to get more of the Academy to see this film. With this being a legacy movie about Miyazaki himself, it might lead to him getting nominated in BP as a legacy nod.

I can't imagine the color purple not getting in for Best Picture, Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay. It has a chance in Editing and Cinematography. Song and score are for sure.

Oscars have diversified enough that Color should be able to get many nominations, but probably zero wins.

Oppenheimer - winner
Barbie - #1 contender
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Past Lives
American Fiction
The Color Purple

I think those 8 are pretty locked in with some other foreign movies, holocaust movies, animated movies and streamers on the outside looking in at those last two spots.

Best Picture win scenarios:

Oppenheimer - year where there's a clear frontrunner that just wins

Barbie - It comes down to Barbieheimer battle and people end up wanting to see the female directed movie with more minorities beat the the straight white male biopic.

The Holdovers - Green Book/CODA style where the underdog feel good movie comes out in top at the end

Poor Things - This would be like Shape of Water where the visually creative film is 3rd or 4th around Jan 1st and then it takes over the race with the first big guild win and we're like "really... Ok". But TSOW is probably the most random winner I can remember so maybe it's best not to overreact to it.

Longshot but not impossible:

American Fiction/Past Lives - At this time in this year CODA was about as strong as a nominee nobody was even thinking about it winning. So I'll give them a mention.

Killers of the Flower Moon - I'm sticking with this being the Irishman, Fabelmans type contender of this year and that Scorsese didn't hit enough of a home run quality wise to win his second BP, but maybe there's a chance DGA goes for Scorsese over Nolan and flips at least who the frontrunner is before they go Barbie or Holdovers over it.

Don't see anything else having a chance.

If they had trimmed 45 minutes of fat Killers would've done better and had more of a chance. Scorsese either needs a new editor or the editor needs to put their foot down.

Oppenheimer seems too white to win, but the only “diverse” nominee is American Fiction, which feels too pandery to win.

I think it’s Oppenheimer’s to lose at the moment

I feel Barbie is in a much better position than TGM which would have been the equivalent box office smash that "saved the industry."

I think it will come down to Barbie and Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer was an exceptionally great biopic. Barbie will have an impact on the industry for decades to come. There's just something that feels so different about its run. It's not a coincidence that we saw the rise of Barbenheimer at the same time that we saw the freefall of comic book movies. One of those two movies winning is a testament to the times.

The Golden Globes happen this Sunday. Barely anyone in the public is going to pay attention to any wins that come for Holdovers, Poor Things, KOTFM, American Fiction and Past Lives. Past Lives would be a great BP win but don't think there's any chance of that but actress upset is possible.

Barbenheimer campaigns will steamroll for Barbie/Oppenheimer.

I'm starting to feel Barbie for Picture and Nolan for Director.

Has anyone seen Anatomy of a Fall or All of Us Strangers?

2 foreign movies to suffer through this year

I couldn’t get myself to watch Drive my Car a couple years ago, and I found All Quiet on the Western front a chore.

I heard Anatomy of a Fall is supposed to have more entertaining style and has a lot of English.

The Zone of Interest sounds like the one that’s showing off cinematography wise but is super boring.

I know the Globes mean shit but I'm starting to feel an Oppie sweep incoming

I read some people think Origin can get a Picture and Actress nomination out of nowhere from activist type of voters

Lol at the BAFTAs not nominating Lily Gladstone