Avatar: The Way of the Water
The Banshees of Inshirin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

They went pretty mainstream with 4 sequels. Good for The Whale, I figured it would have a chance to be BP nominee as emotional connecting movie to some.

I really can't imagine Glass Onion, the Whale or Black Panther get in but you never know.

With only 6 real locks (The Banshees of Inshirin, Elvis, EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick) there is a lot of freedom for the last four picks. I would go with something like

The Whale - smaller film to hit PGA
Living - The British voters who went for stuff like Philomena show up here
Black Panther Wakanda Forever - showing strength with Bassett and need a black nominee
Aftersun - off the board smaller pick with #1 votes, female director to replace Polley

Avatar is as locked as Tar and Elvis

Don't see why Avatar has to be so strong, its best showing is a PGA where they were very friendly to other populist sequels. I get the feeling DGA is full of voters who like an old legend like Cameron and they didn't go for him.

Glass Onion is SAG Ensemble nod friendly so its miss there could confirm it as the easiest drop of PGA nominations

So I’ve only seen 4 of these, but that strikes me as a pretty cool list of movies, though I’d rather see Nope there than Wakanda (or some love for The Menu), but still. Cool list. I almost always prefer the PGA 10 to Oscar BP lineup though.

Yeah, it's a list of popular and decent 2022 movies. It is pleasing in this regard, instead of seeing things like Till, Babylon, She Said, etc. that are just put there to appease certain groups, or as pretentious picks like Bardo and Empire of Light.

Was hoping The Menu could in here since it performed pretty decently but doesn't look like it will get any major noms.

Nice to see Glass Onion and Wakanda Forever picking up some momentum though.

Everything Everywhere All At Once wins

GG. It will surely take the Screen Actors Guild as well, it would have won that even if it was in 2nd or 3rd place overall.

Does that bolster its Best Picture chances?

Basically seals it

Feels like a near lock at this point