I've been saying this for a few weeks now. It's definitely in the top 3 with Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere. A lot of older Academy members aren't going to be into Everything Everywhere. It will have enough support to get tons of nominations but I don't see them giving it Best Picture. Fabelmans has a great shot but it fizzled at the box office and might be losing steam. Top Gun should do great on a ranked ballot. It's the one movie basically everyone agrees on. Who dislikes this movie? I know maybe one person. It's arguably the film of the year and the one that gave many people the best time in a theater. In a sea of many serious, downer contenders I think something just plain fun is going to be very appealing to voters. It helps that this one is so well-crafted. It feels like the kind of movie that used to win Best Picture and it will be refreshing to see it win.

That's just my opinion but anyone that can't see it's a serious threat is mistaken.

Maybe. You could argue it's the closest to a "Ukraine" effect on the Oscars as some sort of rah rah military effect.

Avatar 2 could hurt it though.

Damn, I hope so.

I'm only slightly concerned about that and mainly just because of a release during awards season. But there's really not a world in which I see that winning Best Picture. If it were released early in the year I think most people would have forgotten about it by awards time except for technical awards. I don't think it could keep the momentum like Everything Everywhere and Top Gun have been able to. Also we for sure have more Avatar movies coming which makes them less likely to award this one IMO. Plus Top Gun is really going to resonate with the older male Academy members. Luckily the love is also there from almost every demographic.

I'm 100% in. I was thinking about it once Fabelman's and other contenders' box office was disappointing and also wanted it for a long time.

It's the perfect populist movie to deliver ratings, nostalgia, legacy but most importantly Cruise is a producer and it would let him win his first Oscar. He bet the ship (plane) on theatrical, when all other studios were pushing hard on streaming. He pretty much is the picture of the theatrical rebound of the post Covid world. Avatar will be big and even if it does $1B I feel TGM really still has captured the attention of moviegoers and the industry on a whole for this time and moment. Avatar 2 is the sequel to the highest grossing film worldwide so does have high expectations but TGM came out of nowhere to be a zeitgeist of the year across every demographic. It's a 36 year old sequel and there really has never been anything like this or a box office run like it in modern times.

It served as an antidote to the "movie star" image that went so horribly wrong with Smith last year. Cruise is the movie star that saved the industry in some ways and captured a sequel that will probably be up there with Godfather 2 as one that perhaps compares or improves on the iconic original.

Variety just has leaned in this direction as well. https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars ... 235306911/

Can it with no acting or directing noms?

really hoping Everything Everywhere All at Once wins

CODA won without Directing. And Cruise is most likely getting nominated. What else would win?

Cruise is not getting nominated.

It is EEAAO's to lose, IMO. If Academy voters voted for Parasite, I don't see hoe this is any less appealing to "Older voters"

I honestly think there is a better shot Top Gun wins nothing at all than wins best picture, since Avatar could sweep the tech nominations

CODA also at least got screenplay nomination. Top Gun could get in there but its not guaranteed

Who do you think the acting nominations are? None of the extra ones that got nominated at the Globes today are going to be nominated. Not Daniel Craig, not Jeremy Pope, and not Hugh Jackman.

Also Parasite is a very accessible film. Everything Everywhere is offbeat and chaotic. I loved it and think it's one of the best of the year (though the repetitiveness has kept me from revisiting it - I think I will see it a second time in a theater when theaters do the Best Picture nominees) but there are reports of older Academy members not being that impressed by it at the Academy screenings. Which I saw coming all along. It's just not a movie for old people. It's absolutely in the mix for Picture though if the younger Academy members give it enough support. It's between that, Top Gun and The Fabelmans. I don't see that changing.

Top Gun will still get more nominations than CODA got. Everyone last year was saying that couldn't win because of the stats of past winners. But it did. Stats were meant to be broken. And it's much easier to do with the ranked ballots.

Yes, CODA is the only relevant comparison, gosh I'm dumb, you're right!

All of these are nice reasons but when people mention TGM they also mention...

The MOVIE THAT SAVED THE INDUSTRY.

It's hard not to acknowledge the monumental impact TGM has had and should get some type of awards recognition.

Though interestingly despite making $800M+, Spider-man technically I feel ACTUALLY saved the industry as it was a whopper of a run. Though TGM pulled in every demographic especially older and really surpassed expectations by about 4 fold! Could have easily been a $180M movie, not a $720M movie!!! TGM probably had a greater impact since Spidy was so young people driven while TGM was the exact opposite and pulled in everyone that didn't show up for 2 years of the pandemic that was older.

Spidey probably doubled by 2X reasonable expectations of a $350-400M run.

With 83% on RT currently I'm definitely not concerned with Avatar winning Picture. Will wilil multiple technical awards though.

Top Gun had boomers risking death via COVID to relieve the 1980s on the big screen. For that alone it deserves a nomination.

I mean there's no way it misses a nomination. I'm happy it's locked in that respect.