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Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=79186		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
We should make a bet. I'm pretty sure Spotlight isnt winning BP.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Magnus wrote:
this is not a club. this is a statement of eventual truth.

So...a prediction. Got it.
Author:  nghtvsn [ Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
If Spotlight is going to win best picture isn't it going to need an acting win? Doesn't seem like it's getting director so what is it going to win other than supposedly best picture. Screenplay? That's two.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
nghtvsn wrote:
If Spotlight is going to win best picture isn't it going to need an acting win? Doesn't seem like it's getting director so what is it going to win other than supposedly best picture. Screenplay? That's two.


I'm not even sure it's winning screenplay over Inside Out.
Author:  Libs [ Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Loyal wrote:
nghtvsn wrote:
If Spotlight is going to win best picture isn't it going to need an acting win? Doesn't seem like it's getting director so what is it going to win other than supposedly best picture. Screenplay? That's two.


I'm not even sure it's winning screenplay over Inside Out.


Loyal, seriously. Hitting dat crack pipe this year? ;) I'm not even sure Inside Out is getting a Best Picture nomination, let alone winning a screenplay Oscar.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
lol watch Carol win
Author:  Jonathan [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Loyal wrote:
We should make a bet. I'm pretty sure Spotlight isnt winning BP.


What are you predicting instead? Nothing else really makes sense. I thought about The Big Short after its SAG/GG overperformance, but after watching the movie it seems a bit too frattish to win. The Martian doesn't seem like it's gonna have the needed passion. I don't see the Academy going for the third installment of an Australian post-apocalyptic saga. Carol is probably too artsy and queer. What else is there?
Author:  Algren [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Jonathan wrote:
Loyal wrote:
We should make a bet. I'm pretty sure Spotlight isnt winning BP.


What are you predicting instead?


viewtopic.php?f=16&t=79184

Jonathan wrote:
I don't see the Academy going for the third installment of an Australian post-apocalyptic saga.


Fourth.
Author:  David [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Room is underrated as a Best Picture contender.
Author:  stuffp [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
David wrote:
Room is underrated as a Best Picture contender.


I haven't seen it, but that sounds like a good pick. How about making a club for it?
Author:  Jonathan [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Algren wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
Loyal wrote:
We should make a bet. I'm pretty sure Spotlight isnt winning BP.


What are you predicting instead?


http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 16&t=79184

Jonathan wrote:
I don't see the Academy going for the third installment of an Australian post-apocalyptic saga.


Fourth.


Derp, I meant to write "third sequel" but somehow it came out third installment.

As for Star Wars...nah.
Author:  Loyal [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Libs wrote:
Loyal wrote:
nghtvsn wrote:
If Spotlight is going to win best picture isn't it going to need an acting win? Doesn't seem like it's getting director so what is it going to win other than supposedly best picture. Screenplay? That's two.


I'm not even sure it's winning screenplay over Inside Out.


Loyal, seriously. Hitting dat crack pipe this year? ;) I'm not even sure Inside Out is getting a Best Picture nomination, let alone winning a screenplay Oscar.


What happens if Anomalisa wins Best Animated Feature. Assuming voters want to award Inside Out somewhere, Screenplay would be the only option.
Author:  Webslinger [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Or voters just decide that they've awarded Pixar enough and Inside Out gets completely shutout. That being said, I would be very surprised if Inside Out doesn't win Animated. Anomalisa has plenty of acclaim, yes, but with the exceptions of Spirited Away (which was nominated against bigger films that weren't beloved) and Wallace & Gromit (which came out in a year when all of the big computer-animated studio films laid eggs), they've never gone with a smaller, non-CG movie in this category.

But back to the topic at hand: Spotlight makes the most sense for Best Picture as the race stands right now, but I'm doubtful as to whether the guilds will be as eager to award it as the critics are. With its setting in the world of print journalism and its focus on the process of compiling information, it's obviously going to appeal to people who write for a living. I could see Spotlight following the same path as Social Network and Boyhood, where the critics embrace it, but the industry ultimately goes for something else.
Author:  Loyal [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Well, we know it's not winning DGA. PGA seems iffy.

So a film on shaky ground with the top guilds, with a likely small number of overall nominations, with no shot at winning Best Director or any acting categories, is for fact winning Best Picture.

Got it. :thumbsup:
Author:  Mister Ecks [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
This is feeling like when American Hustle stormed out of the gate and ended up winning nothing.
Author:  Shack [ Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
nghtvsn wrote:
If Spotlight is going to win best picture isn't it going to need an acting win? Doesn't seem like it's getting director so what is it going to win other than supposedly best picture. Screenplay? That's two.


3 or 4 Oscars - Picture, Director, Screenplay, possible Editing
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason. Spotlight will just go on to win BP/BD/Screenplay.
Author:  Loyal [ Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason. Spotlight will just go on to win BP/BD/Screenplay.


That's scary.

We should totally make a bet on whether or not Spotlight wins Best Director.
Author:  Loyal [ Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Each week this is looking less and less likely. It really needed something other than the "both Spotlight and The Big Short went home empty-handed at the Globes" headline.

Maybe it'll sweep at the BFCA on Sunday...
Author:  Loyal [ Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Magnus wrote:
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.


That's scary.


QFT


But all kidding aside, you still think this is a "Fact."
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Okay, at this point, what is pointing to this winning? It's not even the critic darling, that's Mad Max. Outside of its subject matter being conventional for an Oscar win, it does not have that much steam right now. The Revenant and the Big Short have more going for them at this point.
Author:  Price [ Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture and will be forgotten in three months.
Author:  Loyal [ Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Magnus wrote:
this is still factually correct.


Spotlight needs to win some combination of SAG/PGA/DGA. I don't see many ways around it.

It terms of broad AMPAS support, I'm having a hard time finding a similar gap between Spotlight (6 nominations) and The Revenant (12 nominations)/Mad Max: Fury Road (10 nominations), where the Spotlight type of film won.

The closest seems to be Million Dollar Baby (7) and The Aviator (11) but even then M$B tied for the 2nd most nominations with Finding Neverland.

There's also Chariots of Fire (7) to Reds (12), On Golden Pond (10), Ragtime/Raiders of the Lost Ark (8).

Both Million Dollar Baby and Chariots of Fire won 4 Oscars FYI. So for Spotlight to climb this hill, it's gotta win many of the 6 nominations.
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
How about Hurt Locker over Avatar? I don't remember Hurt Locker getting that many nominations.
Author:  Loyal [ Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fact: Spotlight will win Best Picture
Jedi Master Carr wrote:
How about Hurt Locker over Avatar? I don't remember Hurt Locker getting that many nominations.


It TIED Avatar with 9 nominations! That was the death knell for Avatar that set up the David Vs Goliath narrative.
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