The more I think about it, the more sense starts it making to me. Of course I might be proven wrong in the end, but everyone makes more or less bold predictions and this is mine.

There are plenty of similarities between both movies, starting with the fact that both were pretty much critically-acclaimed upon their release. Both are R-rated dramas released in the summer and starring two biggest box-office magnets out there. In both flicks, these actors took on dark roles, unusual for them. Both played hitmen. Cast-wise, however, both films received more acclaim for supporting leads than for the main actor. Road to Perdition received acclaim and an Oscar nomination for Paul Newman in his supporting turn. Collateral, on the other hand is reciving acclaim for Jamie Foxx and he is very likely to receive an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor as well. Both movies were directed by highly acclaimed directors coming off Oscar-nominated movies. Mendes was fresh off American Beauty fame, while Mann's The Insider was nominated for 7 Oscars (and Ali at least received a Best Actor nom). Even the movies' box-office patterns are similar. Both opened with good reviews to $20+ million and great WoM pushed them past $100 million. Road to Perdition ended up with around $104 million, while Collateral topped out at $101 million, but suspiciously close sums.

Both were some of the most-acclaimed pre-September movies in their respective years. Now this year it looks like either Eternal Sunshine will be nominated for Best Picture (and I still don't see it happening) or no pre-September movie will manage that. However, there are always some pre-September films that receive quite a couple of noms and even if Eternal Sunshine gets nominated, Collateral still has all the technical categories going for it.

Road to Perdition was nominated in six catgories which were Best Cinematography (the one it won), Best Sound, Best Sound Editing, Best Score, Best Art Direction and Best Supporting Actor (Paul Newman). I don't see why the sam shouldn't happen for Collateral. It has even more going for it than Road to Perdition had going for it at the moment. Not only in contrast to Road to Perdition, Collateral even ended up on National Board of Review's TOP 10 of the year, Michael Mann was also named Best Director of the year for Collateral.

Therefore, I definitely see Collateral ending up as this Oscar's Road to Perdition. I think it might easily snatch up to 5 noms. These are the ones I consider possible for it:

Best Cinematography
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing
Best Supporting Actor
Best Editing


Anyone agrees?

Great analysis, Dr. Lecter! Also both films were released by Dreamworks. =)

Oh, I even forgot about that Thanks, though

Except Road to Predition was considered a sure thing until it missed out on a Golden Globe nomination :wink:

I don't think so. At best I see 2 or 3 nominations for Collateral.

The problem with Collateral, in my opinion, was that it didn't have enough supporters and people who really loved it to create at the least public buzz. Road to Perdition did. and that maybe also has to do with the type of sturytelling. Perdition was produced as if it were to be a classic and the advertisements RAN head off with one single line from a critic, comparing it to The Godfather.
I'm not saying it was bad, I thought it was one fo the best movies of 2002, but collateral was more edgy and therfore, not as mainstream.

Yes indeed, great analysis Arthur! I didn't thought about comparing these two movies, but they really have a lot in common!

I'm hoping for nominations in the categories:

- Best Cinematography
- Best Supporting Actor (yay, Jamie!)
- Best Sound Editing

Considered a sure thing by...whom? I never considered it a Best Picture contender and it even missed out the NBR...which Collateral got on.

I am not a clairvoyant, though and of course I might be wrong. But this is what predictions are for

And thanks, Martin!