First of all, I want to apologize that it took somewhat long for me to finally get this one posted. I am in the middle of my finals right now, so most of the time I am just devoted to studying or sleeping. As I don't like to post something that it not well though-out and rushed, I decided to better give it some time. Now the second part of my Oscar Analysis 2004 is finished.

In the first part of my Oscar Analysis I mostly took a look at possible contenders 2004 that were released before September this year. As we all know, a pre-September release usually gets nominated for Best Picture each year and to me it looks like Collateral is the most likely candidate this year, even though I actually doubt that there will be a pre-September nominee this year at all.

This part of my Oscar Analysis will first and foremost deal with Foreign Movies 2004 as well as with some of 2004 biopics. The third and final part of the Analysis then, will depict the oscar chances of this year possible oscar "biggies". To make it short, here we go with the analysis:



Maria Full of Grace:


When most people talk about this year's best-reviewed movies they usually bring up either The Incredibles, or Sideways or Eternal Sunshine of the spotless Mind. Most of them forget the Colombian feature called Maria Full of Grace which finished with a 97% score at RT. That movie about a 17-year old transporting heroin in her stomach from Colombia to the USA was well-recived by the audiences as well as by the reviewers. In particular, the movie's young actress Catalina Sandino Moreno received universal praise.

While the movie itself was found too be not Colombian enough to be submitted for a possible Foreign Picture nomination, the movie still can be nominated in other categories. The studio said that it is mostly pushing for a Best Actress nomination as well as a Best Original Screenplay nom. Now to be fair, the movie has a sot at getting both. As I said earlier, the reviews for the movie are splendid and Catalina Sandino Moreno screams "Keisha Castle-Hughes" It was last year's absolute surprise when the Academy announced her Best Actress nomination for Whale Rider. Maria Full of Grace seems to be very similar. It made it into National Board of Review's TOP 5 of Best Foreign movies of the year. Catalina Sandino Moreno as well as Joshua Marston won at this year's Gotham Awards. The former won the Breakthrough Actor/Actress of the year while the latter got Breakthrough Director of the year. The last, but not least, Maria Full of Grace has recieved 5 nominations at this year's Independent Spirit Awards, including Best Actress and Best Feature.

After the movie's release in July this year, it has lost some of its early buzz and almost went forgotten, but now during the awards season its buzz is slowly but gradually being revived. There are similarities between Maria Full of Grace and Whale Rider. Keisha Castle-Hughes turn in Whale Rider was her debut in movies and the same goes for Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace. Both movies have done decent, even though not amazing box-office and have never had huge oscar buzz. While I think that the Best Original Screenplay race might be too tight for Maria Full of Grace, if there will be a big nomination surprise this year, then it'll be Catalina Sandino Moreno being nominated for Best Actress. In the end, I think, it'll come down to Julie Delpy vs. Catalina Sandino Moreno. Both come from rather small movies that are unlikely to get many noms. I believe that one of them will most likely get nominated and at this point, I'd even give the edge to Catalina Sandino Moreno. Considering how much the reviwers loved this movie and that it cannot be nominated for Best Foreign Movie, they might want to reward it with at least a Best Actress nom.

I see following nominations for this movie:

Best Actress - Catalina Sandino Moreno



House of Flying Daggers:


A poetic Chinese martial arts flick released in limited release in the beginning of December? Does that ring a bell? I though so. Four years ago Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon amazed audiences as well as reviewers who were not used to this kind of foreign ware. The box-office experts were stunned not any less when the movie went on to make $125+ million at the North-American box-office. The movie ended up receiving unbelievable 10 oscar nominations and won 4 awards. The question that is easily raised now is if House of Flying Daggers will be able to repeat Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon's success. The answer is simple. It won't be. Neither will any Chinese movie anytime soon be able to repeat this kind of a phenomenal success. Unlike Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, the entsusiasm over House of Flying Daggers is by far not unanimous. Certainly, a 85% score at RT with 94% at Cream of the Crop looks good, but by far not as good if compared to Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon's incredible 96% overall score. Some critics find faults with the movie's plot claiming that the movie is all about style and not so much about substance unlike Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon. One has to admit, though, that it was Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon's style that made the movie as beloved as it was in the end.

Furthermore, House of Flying Daggers opened with a decent, but not amazing PTA last week in 15 theatres. Its PTA was smaller than Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon's in its first week and the future run doesn't seem to come anywhre close that movie. CTHD had a lot more going for it, like the already well-known Chow Yun Fat and the highly-acclaimed director Ang Lee. Speaking of directors, one has to admit that House of Flying Daggers' director Zhang Yimou might benefit from his Hero-fame. Hero is this year's most successful Foreign movie so far and also the third-biggest foreign movie of all time in the USA. While Hero is not eligible for any Oscar nominations, the Academy voters might want to at least pay some respect to House of Flying Daggers, especially because both have the same director. Then again, one must keep in mind that Hero was by far better recieved than House of Flying Daggers.

House of Flying Daggers is China's official submittion for this year's Best Foreign Movie Award. One might say that after being omitted by the National Board of Review for Best Foreign Movie, it doesn't stand much of a chance. However, if you take a closer look at the Best Foreign Movies picks of NBR, you'll notice that three out of five movies listed there are not even eligible for a nomination in the Best Foreign category: Bad Education, Maria Full of Grace and The Motorcycle Diaries. This, combined with the fact that aside from The Sea Inside this is probably going to be the best known foreign movie of the year that is eligible for a nomination, gives the movie a pretty good shot at a Best Foreign Movie nomination, even though a win is very unlikely.

Moreover, NBR's pick of House of Flying Daggers for best Production Design suggests that the movie is also in for some technical nominations. Overall, though, don't expect this movie to grab any major noms. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was unique and so was its success at the box-office as well as at the oscars.

I see following nominations for this one:

Best Foreign Movie
Best Set Design
Best Costumes



A Very Long Engagement:


Who doesn’t remember the most acclaimed and successful French movie that has been ever released – Amelie? Who wasn’t charmed by the story of the an innocent and naive girl in Paris tying to enrich the lives of those around her and discovering love while doing so? Le Fabuleux destin d'Amélie Poulain, which is the movie’s original title, was a charming modern fairy tale which was able to put a smile on the face of anyone who has even halfn of a heart. The result:The flick directed by Jean-Pierre Jeunet became one of the most successful foreign movies at the American box-office, snatched 5 oscar nominations inluding Best Original Screenplay and Best Foreign movie, made it to the 27th spot of IMDB’s TOP 5 and can still be found on many people’s all-time lists. On top of that, undoubtedly the movie made its actress Audrey Tautou who played the title character a star overnight. It is safe to say that this movie made an impact on French as well as worldwide cinema in some ways.

The saying goes: “Never change the winning team” and this is the recipe that A Very Long Engagement obviously has followed. The movie reunites Audrey Tautou with the Amelie director Jean-Pierre Jeunet in an epic World War I romance. However, unlike the charming and sweet fairy tale Amelie, A Very Long Engagement cannot claim that it is universally beloved. The reviews range from “decent” to “very good”, but the general consensus is that the movie is by far not excellent. The RT score of 74% and the IMDB rating of 7.5/10 are far from Amelie’s 88% and 8.7/10 respectively. Furthermore, it has to be said that Amelie was more or less an unique cinematic experience, something that A Very Long Engagement cannot really claim.

What is obviously helping A Very Long Engagement to garner positive buzz is the team of Tautou and Jeunet. A very successful box-office run in its home country, France, cannot hert either. However, one should stay realistic when depicting this movie's chances. The movie is not eligible for a Best Foreign Movie nomination as it was released too late in its home country in order to be submitted for a possible nomination. Foreign Movies usually need a whole lot of universal acclaim to be able to garner some oscar nomination. Best examples are Life is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. A Very Long Engagement doesn't have this kind of critical acclaim. Neither does it have such universal and charming lightweight appeal as Amelie did. Therefore, I think, any major noms can be pretty much exluded at this point. The Best Actress and Best Director races are tight enough at the moment and if the Academy decides to nominate a foreign director, I think the honor will much rather go to Amenábar for The Sea Inside or Pedro Almodóvar for Bad Education. I also don't see more than one foreign movie being nominated for Best Screenplay and I don't believe it'll be A Very Long Engagement. Even if the Academy chooses to nominated a foreign movie for Best Adapted Screenplay, I believe they will pick The Motorcycle Diaries over A Very Long Engagement.

That leaves the movie with only very few possible nominations. Personally, I think it is entirely possible that this movie will be snubbed whatsoever, due to the rather heavy and better received foreign competition coming from the likes of The Motorcycle Diaries, The Sea Inside, Bad Education, Maria Full of Grace etc. At the moment, I think that the only category the movie has a shot at is a Best Cinematography nom and that only because it is hard to beieve that a movie with a high pedigree like this one can be entirely snubbed.

I see following possible nominations for this one:

Best Cinematography



Bad Education:


Pedro Almodóvar is surely not an unkown name to the Academy. His previous efforts, in particular his recent Talk to Her (Hable con Ella) and All About My Mother (Todo sobre mi madre), received great critical acclaim and appreciation from general audiences. The latter won the Best Foreign Movie oscar, the former garnered Almodóvar two oscar nominations, for Best Directing and Best Original Screenwriting. Almodóvar won the latter and consolidated his position as an internationally acclaimed filmmaker who usually doesn't hesitate picking conroversial themes for his movies. This has become clear in both of his masterpieces, All About My Mother as well as Talk to Her and his newest movie, Bad Education (La Mala educación). This movie received the rather rare NC-17 rating from the MPAA. Despite this harsh rating the movie opened with an amazing PTA of over $49,000 in its first weekend, hardly dropped in its second weekend and had a very decent drop in its third weekend and all of that without any theatre count increases. Even the far more accessible foreign entry, A Very Long Engagement couldn't claim that feat. This run indicates bright things for this movie's future and so do the generally very good reviews. The movie stands at 89% at RT at the moment. The National Board of Review included Bad Education in its list of the Best Foreign Movies of the year. Furthermore, the movie's main actor, Gael García Bernal, is probably Mexico's most famous actor at the moment who keep gaining international monumentum. He has starred in such highly-acclaimed and successful flicks like Amores Perros, Y tu mamá también, The Crime of Father Amaro and this year's foreign success The Motorcycle Diaries in which he stars as the iconic guerilla leader Che Guevara. I'll come to this movie later in my analysis.

Just like Maria Full of Grace and A Very Long Engagement, Bad Education is not eligible for a Best Foreign Movie nomination, even though for a totally different reason. The rule is that a country can submit only one movie for a nomination and Spain went for a far more successful and just as critically acclaimed Mar Adentro (a.k.a. The Sea Inside) which I will approach later in my analysis. This way, Bad Education only has a shot at all other awards. Actually, it is a shame, considering the pedigree of the movie and the great reception it is getting. It would have been nominated for Best Foreign Picture and some other awards in any other year, but this year, its strongest competitor comes from its own country - Spain. Both are in the race for pretty much the same awards, but the fact that The Sea Inside is more of an oscar-bait and is generally a more successful movie at the box-office will help it over Bad Education. I believe that their hardest fight will be for the Best Original Screenplay. Almódovar has already won in this category for Talk to Her, but Amenabar is also a very acclaimed and a so far somewhat underrated filmmaker. It is really hard to tell at this point who of the both will get the edge. Bad Education somewhat reminds me of City of God which surprised many by getting four oscar nominations back in 2003, including Best Adapted Screenplay as well as Best Dirctor.

Right now, I think that the Academy voters will award Bad Education with a Best Screenplay nomination in order to somehow make up for the fact that I cannot be nominated for Best Foreign Picture. Best Director is another possibility, but I think that this honor will rather go to The Sea Inside and I don't see two foreign directors/screenwriters being nominated in the same year, no matter how good they are.

I see following possible nominations for this one:

Best Original Screenplay



The Sea Inside:


I'll say it right away and make the introduction to this one short. I believe that Mar Adentro a.k.a. The Sea Inside is the major foreign oscar frontrunner this year. The movie just has so much going for it. It is pure oscar material, the stuff that oscars are made of and what is more, this movie is based on a true story. The film is about Ramon Sampedro, a man who was paralyzed in a horrible accident at a young age and has fought for 27 years for his right to die. Basically this movie is about a fight for human dignity and its thesis is that life is a right, not an obligation. Doesn't that sound like something that Academy members adore? On top of that the movie was a huge hit in its homeland Spain and remained on the top of the box-office for numerous weeks. The main part is played by Spain's probably most acclaimed actor nowadays - Javier Bardem and the movie's director is none other than Alejandro Amenábar of The Others and Open Your Eyes fame who is probably Spain's most promising directing talent at the moment.

The movie so far mostly received nothing, but acclaim, in particular for Bardem's magnificent performance. Bardem has already won for this role during the Venice Film Festival and is currently nominated at the European Film Awards in the Best Actor category. National Board of Review named The Sea Inside the best foreign movie of the year despite strong competition from Bad Education, The Motorcycle Diaries and others. The movie appears pretty accessible and I expect it to be the one foreign reease this year that will score big at this year's awards. So far the substabntial buzz leading to the movie's opening has been good, even though not overwhelming. However, I expect it to gain throughout December. If there is a foreign movie this year that has a shot at getting nominated for Best Picture then it is The Sea Inside. The reviews are glowing enough for that and the movie's topic seems like something that the Academy has always appreciated.

This movie's main competitors, Bad Education and The Motorcycle Diaries, the former having a more famous director, the latter a bigger exposure, will provide tough competition, but I believe that The Sea Inside will be able to overcome it. It has a great shot at a Best Director nomination due to each year's Picture/Director split. It might have the same fate as City of God by being nominated for Best Director, but not Best Picture. At this point the movie is a lock for the Best Foreign Picture nomination and it is pretty much a lock for a win in this category as well.

Javier Bardem is near-lock for the Best Actor nomination. The Academy loves performances of actors who played disabled people struggling for recognition and dignity, especially if they are based on true stories which is the case with The Sea Inside. Moreover, Javier Bardem is not a new face to the Academy. He has already been nominated for Best Actor once for Before Night Falls for which he was awarded as Best Actor of the Year by the National Board of Review back in 2000. I'd even go as far as saying that personally I see Javier Bardem surprising everyone and winning in the award, unless Clint Eastwood gets a nomination and receives the usual "Sympathy-Oscar". The Sea Inside also has a shot at Best Original Screenplay, but at the moment, I'd give the edge to Bad Education in this category. It remains to be seen if Amenábar can gain enough steam for a Best Director nomination and if some of December releases disappoint, The Sea Inside's chances at a Best Picture nomination will just increase.

I see following nominations for this one:

Best Foreign Movie
Best Actor - Javier Bardem
Best Director - Alejandro Amenábar
Best Editing
(Best Original Screenplay - if Bad Education gets snubbed)



The Motorcycle Diaries:


This movie is the biggest foreign movie of the year so far that is eligible for oscar nominations (since Hero is ineligible for any). However, it is not eligible for a Best Foreign Picture nomination because the movie was co-financed by many countries, so a definite country of its origin could not be determined. This is pretty unfortunate as I believe that this movie doesn't have many shots at other nominations this year despite the pretty good reviews and great audiences reactions as well as a good box-office run. I just don't see anything outstanding that might garner this movie a nod. Normally, I'd say that Gael García Bernal has a good shot at a Best Actor nomination, especially due to his recognized earlier efforts in Amores Perros, The Crime of Padre Amaro and also this year's Bad Education. However, I don't see two Spanish-speaking actors being nominated for Best Actor this year, especially in such a tight race and I am sure the Academy would give Javier Bardem the edge. You have to keep in mind that his role is slightly controversial as he plays the guerilla leader Che Guevara. Some reviewers found faults with this movie because they think that it glamorizes Che Guevara, a rather twisted personality who was also responsible for many deaths. Overall, I don't see him getting a nomination.

I also rule out a Best Director nomination, as I think that IF a foreign movie will receive a nomination in this category it'll much rather be either Almodóvar for Bad Education or Amenábar for The Sea Inside.

As far as the minor noms like Best Costumes, Best Editing, Best Cinematography etc. goes, I see many much more likely and bigger contenders in these categories.

What remains is the Best Adapted Screenplay category. However, as I expect either Bad Education or The Sea Inside to get nominated for Best Original Screenplay, I doubt that two Spanish-speaking sceenwriters will get nominated in the same year, even though it'd be in two different categories. Nonetheless, it is still the most likely chance for The Motorcycle Diaries.

I see no nominations for this movie



Les Choristes:


The movie is France's official submission for this year's Best Foreign Picture award and judging by the fact that National Board of Review included it in its Best Foreign Movies of the year list as well as by its immense box-office in France and great reviews, this movie is pretty much a lock for a Best Foreign Picture nomination.



Kinsey:


While The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 are probably this year's most controversial movies, Kinsey is another controversial addition, even if on a smaller scale. The movie's plot deals with the life of Alfred Kinsey, a pioneer in the area of human sexuality research, whose book "Sexual Behavior in the Human Male" was one of the first literary works approcahing the science of human sexuality. Some of his published works were even considered attacks at basic American values.

The movie is getting great reviews overall with the overall RT score being 87% and the Cream of the Crop score being 92%. However, the love for this movie is by far not unanimous. Some critics claim that the movie presents a "sanitized" biography of Kinsey and portrays him as a hero, even though he was far from one. Some harsh critics even claim that he was the one who did pioneering work for NAMBLA, a rather infamous organization in the USA and he is also suspected to have employed pedophiles for his experiements and let them molest children. Some sources claim that he considered Judeo-Christianity the enemoy of freedom. It is hard to tell how much truth is in these accusations, but they will create some bad WoM for this movie and many will be rather careful with this movie.

Since some of the possible Best Picture contenders this year have turned out to be rather weak the movie might be a candidate for a Best Picture nomination with the great reviews it has been receiving. Furthermore, it has made it to the 6th spot of the National Board of Review. However, I shall remind some people of Quills, another controversial movie about a person who had certain controversial views on sex. That movie topped the National Board of Review back in 2000 and yet failed to garner a Best Picture nomination. That movie was also accused of whitewashing a rather twisted historical personality with unique views concerning sex. Furthermore, the movie mostly scores with its great cast and that will be, no matter how controversial the movie seems, will be awarded with nominations.

One shall remember that the movie is almost completely carried by Neeson and a nom for him is inevitable. Critics praise his performance as one of the definitely best this year. A win is unlikely considering the strong competition, but I don't doubt a nomination. Peter Sarsgaard seems to be a likely nominee in the Best Supporting Actor category, as the Academy snubbed him for Best Supporting Actor in Shattered Glass last year despite critical acclaim. He is also nominated for Best Supporting Actor in this year's Independent Spirit Awards. In addition, the undrrated Laura Linney who has already been nominated once for You can count on Me and recived critical support for last year's Mystic River is very likely to snatch a Best Supporting Actress nomination and is actually one of the frontrunners for the award. Recently she has been getting even more buzz for Kinsey than Neeson.

As for Best Picture, however, the content of the movie might be a bit too delicate for the Academy and the movie might be just too small. It opened pretty well at the box-office, but wasn't able to maintain its great PTA for a long time and at the moment it is sinking without further expansion. A movie with content as delicate as this one, needs all support it can get and its lack of impact at the box-office will affect it negatively. In the moment it is lacking monumentum and with Million Dollar Baby quickly gaining support Kinsey is likely to be shut out. A Best Original Screenplay is possible though, especially considering the the movie's topic it was probably hard to write a script for the movie. I think this work might be awarded with a nom. Kinsey's competition for the Best Picture nomination is Closer, another somewhat controversial movie, which was on the one hand not as well received, but has a better cast to show off with and therefore is likely to be chosen over Kinsey.

I see following nominations for this one:

Best Actor - Liam Neeson
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Linney
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay



Ray:


This is probably this year's most prominent biopic releases this year so far. Ray Charles is nothing short of a legends and this movie surely serves as a well-deserved memorial dedicated to him. The movie has garnered pretty good reviews and stands at 81% at RT at the moment. It has also made it to the 8th spot of the National Board of Review which is a great feat for this movie. Another thing that is going for it is that the movie is a decent succes at the box-office and will soon cross $70 million and that even before the awards season will truly kick in which means that a higher gross is very possible. Ray Charles was an overall beloved entertainer and his death earlier this year will still be the heads of most Academy voters. The movie can only benefit from that.

Jamie Foxx is a shoe-in for a nomination at the moment and with his on the National Board of Review the closest to a lock for a win, even though I believe that he won't win. He will definitely get nominated, this is without a doubt. The movie has also a strong female supporting cast, but I believe that this year the race in that category will be tight enough and the supporting actresses in this movie will cancel each other out so that none of them will get nominated.

I don't see this movie being nominated for Best Picture and Best Director, though. I know it has been getting lots of acclaim, but to be honest, I think that it is Jamie Foxx who carries the whole movie and most of the praise belongs to him and not to the actual movie. Out of possible Best Picture contenders, it is definitely in the TOP 10, ranking higher than Kinsey, but still not quite TOP 5. I think that the race for Best Picture might be tighter this year than some people assume at this point. I believe that it is a great biopic and it does look like oscar material. Yet, I think that other biopics or, well, semi-biopics like The Aviator and Finding Neverland are much stronger contenders and will leave not much space for Ray. What it needs is to win at least some critic awards for something other than Best Actor in order to increase its chances for a Best Picture nomination.

I see following nominations for this one:

Best Actor - Jamie Foxx
Best Editing
Best Score


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That's all for the middle part of my Oscar Analysis. Some things that I personally find remarkable that out of six major foreign movies this year (the ones I have listed, with the exception of Les Choristes) only 2 - House of Flying Daggers and The Sea Inside - are actually eligible for a Best Foreign Picture nomination.

Another remarkable thing is that out of these six movies, four are in Spanish. This is a very strong year for Spanish-speaking cinema, I'd say, with The Sea Inside still being the major frontrunner out of those.

The last, but not least is the my notion of the vast amount of biopics and semi-biopics released this year. These are: Kinsey, Ray, Finding Neverland, The Aviator, Alexander, The Passion of the Christ, Beyond the Sea and Hotel Rwanda. I probably even forget a couple.

In the final part of my detailed Oscar Analysis I'll depict movies like Finding Neverland, The Phantom of the Opera and The Aviator and give my final predictions.


Until then, enjoy ripping apart this one

Always a great read. Agree with a lot of what you said. Just one nicky-picky: you mentioned The Sea Inside is a lock for best foreign film, but didn't list it for the nominations you believe it will receive.

Sorry, I'll edit that. This thing is officially my longest posting ever with 4,953 words (the first part contained 3,410 words). With the next part dealing with all the biggies it looks like the entire analysis will contain over 13,000 words. That's another reason why I am a bit slow getting them posted. Not an excuse but still

Glad you liked it.

Not that I want to take anything out of the post or in no way scold anyone... and even though I find these long analyses a great read and enjoy them alot, but the fact that you already put out a new thread for your Part I (understandable) just makes it seem like a waste of a thread just specifically for part II....combining them would not only give the forum less threads, but in the long run, it would be most effective to have all your analysis in one thread... anyway....


It was a great read Lecter, though I skimmed through some paragraphs. I agree more with these predictions than your part I and don't find any one of your choices or snubs too significant.

I hope in Part III you'll also do Closer, Spanglish, Million Dollar Baby....
And would you even be considering doing the late releases of the year? (Assassination of Richard Nixon, Woodsman, Merchant of Venice...)

Just got back from watching Finding Neverland. A well-deserved Oscar contender IMO. I'd be very interested to see what you have to say about its chance, Lecter.

The first thing I did was to try and edit the original post in my original thread because I didn't want to create a separate thread. However, The posting was too long and wouldn't let me post it. I had a choice between posting it in a separate thread or just as a post in the other thread. I thought the former would be more noticed and it's also not like the forum has that many threads.
However, I will most likely post the third part in this thread since you are right that it makes it more effective.

@Raffiki

This is the list of movies I plan on doing in the final part of the analysis:

Closer
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Closer
The Aviator
The Incredibles
Spanglish
Woodsman
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Hotel Rwanda
Vera Drake
In Good Company
The Phantom of the Opera

I am not sure if I'll do Merchant of Venice and Assassination of Richard Nixon yet. At the moment, I just know too little about these movies.

Tell me if you think I should do any others.


@xiayun

Wel , I can already tell you one thing. I consider Findng Neverland the closest lock for a Best Picture nomination after The Aviator and I expect over 5 nominations for it.

I don't think The Sea Inside will be able to get that many high profile nominations.

American films this year will factor very heavily into the AMPAS nomination process.

I also don't think enough members will have seen The Sea Inside or even Bad Education or The Motorcycle Diaries for that matter, for a single film of the three to really make a huge splash come nomination time.

I would love to see Ray do what "What's Love Got To Do With It" couldn't do and get nominated for BP.

I think it's possible for 3 or even 4 of the BP nominees to be biopics this year.

Actually, I just predicted two high profile noms for The Sea Inside - Best Actor and Best Director. The Foreign Picture nomination is a given anyway. I just thought "City of God" when analyzing The Sea Inside and Bad Education...

I know. You expect TMD to be shut out. I expect one or maybe two nods between those three films. I also don't have a strong feeling about Maria Full of Grace but maybe a nom on Monday by the Golden Globes could change things.

As I said, I expect one surprise in the Best Actress category. It'll happen either to Before Sunset or to Maria Full of Grace, in my opinion.

A Julie Delpy nom would be insanely cool.

I whole-heartedly agree. And an Uma Thurman nod would be equally fantastic.... the two best performances of the year!

Uma Thurman's performance was the best of the year. Granted, I haven't seen Before Sunshine yet, but still...

I just got back from Finding Neverland. Everything about it is "really good", not much about it is "brilliant", which is why I would have a slight problem seeing it nominated for Best Picture.

This is not the best Johnny Depp has ever been mostly because the character is just natural and not really given a lot of weird space to work with (which is Johnny's speciality in my opinion)... with Captain Jack Sparrow, Edward Scissorhands, Ed Wood, Raoul Duke, Donny Brasco, Gilbert Grape on your resume, J.M. Barrie isn't that impressive in my opinion... but I like him so a nomination wouldn't make me mad, although it would disappoint me that truely career defining highpoints like Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind would be lost in favor of this performance. But so be it.

Kate Winslett is also good (like Johnny, she is ALWAYS really good). But in general the movie is just ... "very good" not insanely great.

I did like the touch of mascara on Johnny's eye during the pirate scene though.

Other than Depp, it has chances in Screenplay. It's definately in the top 10 for Best Picture choices. Winslett could get a nomination, but none of the other actors. The cinematography is good enough that a Picture nomination could push it into that category.

So I dunno... if it is an Academy favorite maybe at most 6 nominations? I'm confident in saying that it will at least get 2 or 3 nominations (Depp, Screenplay... maybe Picture).

I think, after this weekend that the supposed lock-for-win status of The Sea Inside is up in the air, Bardem's potential nomination is up in the air and anything outside those two categories looks bleak unless things can turn around for The Sea Inside.

Lets not forget that Amelie lost to No Man's Land two years ago.

Not maria? You know how many foreign language speaking women have won best actress oscars? Two I believe. Anouk Aimee and Sophia Loren. And they were a loooong time ago. When Fernanda Montenegro got a nod a few years back it was *good enough* even though she was pretty damn excellent in her part. I thought she deserved it that year.

Shohreh Aghdashloo already got a supporting nod last year. We can't have too many outsiders.

She might get a nod, but definately not a win.

I never said she'd get a win. Even a nomination would be rewarding enough.

To be fair, though...are the Best Picture picks by the Academy always brilliant? I don't think so...

Usually 3 out of the 5 are super excellent, much better than Finding Neverland.

And then there are always the other two...

Your point? I'm not saying it can't get a BP nomination (flip a coin in the air, I don't think it will but it is definately in that top 10 of contendors). I'm just saying it is a really slight, really subtle film with not a ton of meat to it.

And those are always the most difficult pictures to predict.

More thoughts: The audience I was with (and it was relatively full) didn't really seem to gel with it if I read the reactions correctly at the end. There were some women who were obviously there to behold-the-wonder-of-Depp, but in general, there wasn't a lot of emotional reaction or excitement in the end from the audience.

Some of the fantasy sequences in the film (the dancing bear) just didn't work and felt a little too weird and poorly filmed and took me and my sister out of the movie.

I dunno. I get to see Closer this afternoon, we'll see how that goes.

This, for me is the year of *shrugs* at the Oscars, I haven't had the opportunity to see Sideways yet, but everything else that has been released is like "just okay, I guess it could be a Best Picture *shrug*". The weakest canidate last year, Master & Commander or Seabiscuit could have easily won this year in place of any of these films.