Picks for early December:

The Aviator - It will win at this point. Count on it. Like Lord of the Rings, it is very likely it will get no actor awards, and unlike Lord of the Rings, it is very possible that The Aviator will only win two awards... Picture and Director. What a messed up year this is.

Closer - Count on a nomination. Portman is a likely heavy in Supporting Actress. Julia and Clive have a good chance too. No for Jude, but who knows. Your likely Best Adapted Screenplay is right here.

Ray - Biopic #2, and unlike Kinsey (too brainy) or Finding Neverland (at least so far, it's reception is in NO WAY like A Beautiful Mind's) it has a GREAT leading male contendor who has an excellent shot of winning (see: stats on leading actors who lead pictures to nominations). Liam and Johnny can get a nomination too. But Kinsey does not have the box office and Neverland doesn't really have it either and probably won't gain it. Ray also have Universal, who has shown in the past they can get mediocre or problematic movies nominated (not that Ray is mediocre, but Seabiscuit certainly was). Ray has the publicity. Ray has it all.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - I don't think Focus has a "spot" but they definately have a knack for picking great projects to push. All other Focus properties are dead to the world. Hotel Rwanda could go here... but the focus seems to be on the actors. Eternal Sunshine has the nerd/cult/trendy/indie/quirky feeling that is middling enough and good enough for a Picture nomination. Sideways is indeed fantastic but people aren't excited. Perhaps Gondry will be the one without the nomination (which is fair, the direction is good but not masterful) but I think Eternal Sunshine as a picture has had a better year than anything that has come out in its league.

The Passion of the Christ or The Phantom of the Opera - Both of these films will probably end up with the same amount of critical acclaim (so fairly mild) but The Passion of the Christ will end up with ALL the technical awards and Gibson is FAR bigger chance of scoring a director nomination than Phantom. But then there is the whole issue of Passion that you have to deal with. On the other hand, I don't need to revisit all the negatives that Phantom may possess... Schumacher... new actors... mediocre reviews... cheesy trailers... Phantom could go "Alexander" on us relatively quickly. Plus, Passion also made $300+ million.

Notes on a few films I didn't mention:

A Very Long Engagement - No excitement, nobody cares. This makes me sad, but it's true. Cinematography? Sure. Acting... no. Unless something changes quickly. It is about to be buried by all the December Oscar films.

Million Dollar Baby - who knows.

Fahrenheit 9/11 - Died when the democrats started hating themselves.

Alexander could have been great. *sigh*

Wow, andaroo.... I completely disagree with your Aviator statement: possibly only 2 wins?? no acting noms???

It will, at this point, win picture and director.
I think Cate Blanchet is almost a lock nomination for supporting actress and a frunt-runner to win.
And don't count Leonardo completely out of the race... everyone's saying this is his best performance.
It will get a bunch of techie nods and maybe win one or two...

I see Aviator winning 5 if it is the big winner of the night!

My nominees....

1. Aviator

2. Closer

3. Phantom of the Opera

4. Ray

5. Hotel Rwanda/Million Dollar Baby/Sideways/Eternal Sunshine

I will retract that a little. It will very likely win something smaller like Editing or Sets or Costume Design. Hell, maybe even cinematography.

Why is it a shock that it could win with no acting noms? Seabiscuit, Master and Commander and Lord of the Rings were all nominated for best picture last year without having any actors nominated.

I don't think Blanchett is a frontrunner at all, but if the film were to get a nomination, it would be her performance. Or maybe even Alec Baldwin. But not Leo. And I'm actually a good Leo fan.

how can you all say this when aviator hasnt come out. Remember Alexander?!?!?

POLITICS!!!!

At this point all we're talking is politics.... we can't argue actual deserving and best chance nods until after december, when at least some of us have seen a majority of the films in contention (is that even a word?)...

Even my Alexander talk and chances were ALL based on politics... trying to get inside the minds of the academy...

As in response to Andaroo... why I don't think Aviator can win without acting nods... Well, it most certainly can... but will it? I don't think so. This isn't an event driven film like LOTR.... it's a biography and therefore, it would be almost insane for it to be a best pcture frunt-runner without some acting support. Add on to that... it's a bipic on one of the leading hollywood figures of all time and some of his supporting cast consists of actors/actresses playing legendary actors/actresses of the time and the best example is Cate Blanchet (playing Katherine Hepburn). Above all that... Alec Baldwin has emerged in the past year for some reason, Cate Blanchet is way overdue (thus her frunt-running status appointed by me), and Leo has been getting very positive and virtually NO negative buzz for his turn as Howard Hughes...

I see it highly unlikely.... unless it really turns out to be a tad above mediocre and still nominated but not in the running ot be the big oscar movie of the year!

Early buzz, past Oscar wins, and like Raffiki said, industry "politics."

You could say the same thing about box office: "How can you predict $300 billion dollars for Star Wars when it hasn't come out yet!??!?!?!"

The early buzz has been good to great for The Aviator, while the one for Alexander was definitely negative. Eberts and Roeper are doing an early review of The Aviator, and that basically means two thumbs up. The support seems to be a lot more universal than Gangs of New York. So overall, I think it has held up well going into the final stretch.

Yes, because Star Wars reaching one billion dollars itself sounds really far fetched as opposed to 300 billion dollars

(Ok, for almost all year, I've been looking way ahead, thinking well this one has a chance, if critcs really back it up, or surprises at the Globes, and blah blah blah. I'll try something different and list what I think has the best chances as of now, not looking ahead to other pre-cursor awards. So I'm saying goodbye to a few films...Eternal Sunshin? ...but only for now :wink:)

Best Picture:
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Aviator
3. Million Dollar Baby
4. Kinsey
5. Spanglish
Alternates: Ray, Sideways, Closer.

Best Actor:
1. Jamie Foxx- Ray
2. Javier Bardem- The Sea Within
3. Liam Neeson- Kinsey
4. Clint Eastwood- Million Dollar Baby
5. Don Cheadle- Hotel Rwanda
Alternates: Johnny, Leo, Jim, Paul, and way too many.

Best Actress:
1. Anette Bening- Being Julia
2. Hilary Swank- Million Dollar Baby
3. Kate Winslet- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
4. Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace
5. Julie Deply- Before Sunset

Alternates: Julia Roberts- Closer, Imelda Staunton- Vera Drake, Tea Leoni- Spanglish.

Edit: Also Laura Dern- We Don't Live Here Anymore and Emmy Rossum- Phantom of the Opera (unlikely, but I'll wait to see how the film is received).


Best supporting Actor:
1. Peter Sarsgaard- Kinsey
2. Clive Owen- Closer
3. Alan Alda- The Aviator
4. Morgan Freeman- Million Dollar Baby
5. Freddy Highmore- Finding Neverland

Alternates: Thomas Hayden Chruch- Sieways, David Carradine- Kill Bill vol. 2.

1. Laura Linney- Kinsey
2. Natalie Portman- Closer
3. Cate Blanchett- The Aviator
4. Kate Winslet- Finding Neverland
5. Chloris Leachman or Paz Vega- Spanglish.

Alternates: Virginia Madsen- Sideways, Barbra Streissand- Meet the Fockers

Current (yet, likely to change) Predictions

BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
Kinsey
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon, Kinsey
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Mike Nichols, Closer
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Liam Neeson, Kinsey

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Julia Roberts, Closer
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Clive Owen, Closer
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer

Mine are:

BEST PICTURE

The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
The Phantom of the Opera
Hotel Rwanda

BEST DIRECTOR

Mark Foster, Finding Neverland
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Mike Nichols, Closer
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Liam Neeson, Kinsey

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Being Julia
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Julia Roberts, Closer
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Here's my current predictions:

Best Picture
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

Best Director
Martin Scorsese-The Aviator
Mike Nichols-Closer
Mark Foster-Finding Neverland
Clint Eastwood-Million Dollar Baby
Bill Condon, Kinsey

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Clint Eastwood- Million Dollar Baby

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Julia Roberts, Closer
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace

Best Supporting Actor
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Clive Owen, Closer
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Kate Winslet-Finding Neverland or Cloris Leachman-Spanglish
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer

Whichever Kate gets in for, she probably wont in the other, so I put two choices next to her. Mine are strangely similar to Libs, with only a few expections.

Am I the only person not predicting a nomination for Imelda Staunton?

So far, I guess.

Best Picture:
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Passion of the Christ
3. Ray
4. Fahrenheit 9/11
5. The Aviator

Alternates: The Phantom of the Opera, Million Dollar Baby

I don't think I'll be making any changes to my picture nominations. I am actually pretty confident in it right now.

Best Director:
1. Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
2. Bill Condon, Kinsey
3. Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
4. Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11
5. Mel Gibson, The Passion of the Christ

Alternates: Marc Forster, Finding Neverland; Mike Nichols, Closer

The only reason that both Moore and Gibson are in my top 5 is because it is very highly that there will be less than a 3/5 director split, though that may very well happen this year. Forster's mediocre direction could probably replace one of them, but I'm not sure which one.

Best Actor:
1. Jamie Foxx, Ray
2. Liam Neeson, Kinsey
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
4. Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
5. Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside

Alternates: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda

Very predictable top five. Bardem may get snubbed if Academy members end up not seeing the film.

Best Actress:
1. Annette Bening, Being Julia
2. Tea Leoni, Spanglish
3. Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
4. Imelda Stauton, Vera Drake
5. Kate Winslett, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Alternates: Nicole Kidman, Birth; Julia Roberts, Closer

This category has become suprisingly weak. I could see a predicted Best Supporting Actress contender sneak onto here.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
2. Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
3. John Lithgow, Kinsey
4. Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
5. Clive Owen, Closer

Alternates: Rodrigo De La Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries; David Carridine, Kill Bill Vol. 1

Clive Owen feels like the weakest right now, and could very well be snubbed for someone else. I am very confident that Peter Saarsgard will not get nominated for Kinsey.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Laura Linney, Kinsey
2. Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
3. Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
4. Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
5. Minnie Driver, The Phantom of the Opera

Alternates: Natalie Portman, Closer; Virginia Madsen, Sideways

Very crowded category, much more so than Best Actress. And this will be very competitive race to see whether Winslet, Linney, or Blanchett ends up with the gold.

I'm starting to doubt Closer being a BIG contender. Reviews have been good, but not great. Audience reception is poor.

alex young: Fahrenheit 9/11 is basically dead at this point. It cannot even win against even smaller documentaries at the recent award shows.

Fahrenheit has basically been dead since the election, I don't expect the Academy to revisit that ground even to make a political point.

Re: Closer. Closer reaction has actually been pretty good for a Best Picture nominee potential, it's been doing good in all the right circles, and I still think it has a pretty good chance of getting a nomination.

This year has been a bad one for my predicting skills... BUT I WILL SAY THIS:

After The Aviator, Ray is the most sure thing for a nomination. It's a perfect canidate.