Here we go again with another installment. Might as well start fresh on new grounds shall we? Lets begin.

In order of likelyhood:

The Aviator (Miramax/Warner Bros.) d. Martin Scorsese
Still a done deal. This is going to have to be worse than Gangs of New York to not get a nomination. It is doubtful whether it can actually win, maybe. Consensus is going to be tough to get this year. There is no Lord of the Rings or even a Chicago to rally around. Still, this is a good bet.

Closer (Sony/Columbia) d. Mike Nichols
Unless something horrible about this movie comes out (like that it's, gasp! bad!) nothing can stop the troupe of actors in this picture from getting seriously considered as nominees (Julia Roberts, Clive Owens, Jude Law, and Natalie Portman). And if this film is even "just good" can anything really stop it from winning the Adapted Screenplay Oscar this year? Mike Nichols is HOT off Angels in America, the only picture that, if it had been a theatrical release, could have challenged Return of the King last year. Closer will be in the top five.

The Passion of the Christ (Lions Gate) d. Mel Gibson
The highest grossing independent film of all time, and the only film that is going to end up in the top ten this year with any serious chances of Best Picture. Between this film, and Fahrenheit 9/11 the year is incomplete without nominating either one of them, and while Fahrenheit will probably end up in the top 15 grossers I still think its status as a documentary could, in the end, hurt it, while the audience for Passion is (excuse this) very passionate about it. Add to it all the technicals that Fahrenheit doesn't have, and you have a solid contendor for Best Picture. It won't win, but it is at least as solid as say... Seabiscuit was.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus/Universal) d. Michael Gondry
Welp ladies and gents. We're here in October and all those little indie cult films just didn't past the muster. There is only two films that survived to the end of the year (well... so far) with any sense of cult awareness and that is Eternal Sunhsine of the Spotless Mind and Kill Bill, Vol. 2 (which Miramax won't push, to their folly). The Motorcycle Diaries is good, and is getting good reviews, but it just isn't going anyway. A curiosity. Eternal Sunshine is getting nominations in foreign markets already (Australian film board) and it will probably win all the IFP awards but maybe two (I expect Fahrenheit 9/11 to win the IFP award this year).

Catwoman (Warner Bros.) d. Pitof
...
Okay, no.

Un long dimanche de fiançailles (Warner Bros.) d. Jean-Pierre Jeunet
My heart says A Very Long Engagement will take the almost assured Warner Bros. spot, but I can't yet bring myself to say what my brain thinks... that Alexander will take this slot. Sure, it looks fun, but Troy still lingers in my mind. Actually, this slot I have actually no feeling for, I just think it will be a shame, in a year with so many great foreign potential nominees, if not one of them passes into the top five. I think the love for Amelie was strong enough (and Jeunet is well known enough) to make this happen. I'm hoping!

Waiting on the ropes:
Alexander (would replace A Very Long Engagement)
Fahrenheit 9/11 (would replace The Passion of the Christ)
Finding Neverland (would have to replace Aviator)
The Motorcycle Diaries (would replace Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
Kinsey (Could replace Engagement, Closer, Passion or Sunshine)

Unknowns:
Hotel Rwanda
Vera Drake
Sideways
Ray
Being Julia

Would be nice but not at this point:
Collateral
Kill Bill, Vol. 2
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

If the Academy was feeling REALLY edgy
Dogville
Shrek 2/The Incredibles
White Chicks

Dead:
The Door in the Floor
Vanity Fair
I Heart Huckbees

I'm going to agree with your picks completely add, er, andaroo.

1. The Aviator
2. Closer
3. The Passion Of The Christ
4. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind

And for the fifth slot, I think I'm going to go with...

5. Finding Neverland - It has a good cast, and up-and-coming director, and will receive Miramax's campaigning focus along with The Aviator. It's also a tear jerker which should balance out the coldness of Closer, the cruelty of TPOTC, and the oddness of Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind, which I haven't seen yet. Is there room for this and The Aviator? I think so.

Oh, and here's hoping Kate Winslett is a double nominee and a winner somewhere this year.