Sort of feel like Wicked could pull off the best picture win. Huge massive box office, star with big Gen Z appeal, inclusive cast without being too divisive, and ties to a previous story (Wizard of Oz) and a base of Broadway fans.

Feeling like the Academy could do a Wicked / Gladiator 2 split for director to go more populous this year but who knows.

Gladiator 2 with 77% RT/67 MC so far, sounds like Denzel is great but Mescal is < Crowe.

Denzel is making a serious run for his 3rd Oscar here 23 years after his last one.

Conan to host

Thank god no Jimmy Kimmel

Wondering if we could have a year where a different movie wins every big award.

Picture - Anora
Director - Dune
Actor - Sing Sing
Actress - Emilia Perez (this is the only lock right now)
Suppt Actor - The Brutalist
Suppt Actress - Wicked
Original Screenplay - A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay - Conclave

or something like that?

Dang why does Dune feel like so long ago lol forgot 2 was this year

Rooting for Ariana to win.

Anora looks boring but I guess I have to watch it

You don't. It will be forgotten by April like most award flicks every year.

I think you'll enjoy it. I'm too lazy to look it up but I kinda remember you saw and liked Hustlers? Dune 2 should absolutely win, but like pe mentioned it feels like its being forgotten unlike EE and Oppy which were still fresh in people's minds during awards season. I think the "we'll just reward part 3 like lotr" narrative is winning out, which is the opposite of what Dune Messiah will be doing on oscar night in 2027. Part Two is the Return of the King of this series. Therefore Anora is likely going to be the best bet available.

I’m still predicting Anora loses but not sure what does it. I’m reconsidering Dune cause it’s one of the only masculine friendly choices this year and there has to be at least one scenario where the narrative after is women took an L like the election. But it’d work best with female directed frontrunner and the Substance is one of the only on the radar.

I wish writing a real story or book was as easy as taking all the titles for the Oscar movies and making a narrative out of it.

Wicked looks to push into the $500M+ territory. I'm feeling like it could bulldoze into the frontrunner role very soon for best picture.

Would be the first musical to win since Chicago 22 years ago. Only the 3rd since The Sound of Music in 1965 with Oliver in 1968. Feels like Hollywood may embrace it fully in awards season.

I really can’t imagine a family friendly fantasy film wins BP but I think a nomination is more and more possible

I think Wicked Part 2 winning is more plausible.

I think Wicked has a chance to win BP tbh. It's pretty beloved all around. Don't really see Anora winning.

I don’t see an artsy indie winning again for a while.

A read a good point that international voters may not go for Wicked. I'd still predict it falls into roughly Maverick and Barbie's places in the race.

Hope Dune can pull it off.