Wonder how the divisiveness of Joker 2 will play out for Gaga's chances? Nod but could keep the race open.

Gaga should really go supporting. If she stays lead, then she might end up campaigning against herself in favor of the trans woman lol.

Brutalist runtime being 210 minutes makes me feel better. There's no way enough voters are gonna watch that in order to get the win.

Gaga is not unexpectedly getting very good reviews, and from the sound of it she's less in the movie than the marketing led one to believe, so I think she will go for Supporting, and has a much better chance of a nomination there.

I feel like Best Actress is 90% a wrap at this point, the winner will probably be Madison even if Anora doesn't win.

Lee feels like one of those films that is completely ignored in all categories but gets a Best Actress win for Winslet. Fuck it, that's my prediction. Maybe it only comes true at the BAFTAs, but it could also happen at the Oscars with enough British backing.

With Guadagnino's Queer looking like it won't do much, I'm feeling better about Challengers and I think I should've put it on the draft list. Also I believe the Best Actress competition is pretty bad so why not nominate Zendaya.

Zendaya will help their ratings too. They could give Ariana a nod if they really want to pander.

Signs are coming that Clint may make a last minute addition to the awards race. Could be his last film so there's lots of potential there too if its good.

There are two films that are quite high on the bookmakers odds list that I'd never heard of before: The Brutalist is the joint favourite along with Dune: Part Two at 4/1, and Sing Sing is the second favourite at 5/1.

The Brutalist is getting raves and Adrian Brody is possibly a lock for BA. I'm looking forward to it though at 3.5 hours it better be entertaining.

Maybe Gaga can get a nod but going to be hard I think for a win for a movie that has had bad a reception as Joker 2 is getting. Better luck next time then Gaga?

Well if Wickediator goes down they may as well nominate Wicked too along with Gladiator.

Wicked could definitely replace Joker if they're looking for another mainstream film. I don't think anything is locked in besides Dune, Anora, Brutalist and Sing Sing.

Wicked has no Oscar bait characteristics at all.

Late release date but Chalamet stealing Best Actor is an outside possibility I guess if the Brutalist is too boring and they don't have another great pick. They also haven't given a music biopic win in Actor/Actress the whole 2020s.

I mean 2019 and Rami Malek is only 5 years ago lol

Anora is presumed frontrunner but my gut feeling would be the festival people hyped it up a bit more than its real quality out of people supporting idea of sex worker movie by hipster friendly Baker. Then again I have also heard Sing Sing is more good not great, and Emilia Perez seems like a movie half of people hate, and the Brutalist seems more for the Criterion collection crowd. Wickediator ending with a female movie being bigger but the male winning BP is too close to last year and at some point a director is too old to make a BP winner.

I'd love to see Gladiator II win BP and follow in the footsteps of the Godfather films. Yes it wont happen but not impossible considering most of this year's BP batch arent all that accessible.

At this point, I cannot see anything but The Brutalist winning Best Picture.

There's parts in the trailer that still make me think it's going to have scenes where people walk with no dialog for multiple minutes at a time but the cinematography and score is nice. I'll still bet against it if true.

I get the feeling reading some reactions that Sing Sing just isn't a good enough movie to win.

Grande campaign has started. Could definitely see her taking Gaga's spot in supporting actress now.

It always felt like they would just give Supporting Actress to Saldana for Emilia Perez but it sounds like her being in that category is BS.

This is likely very true. It's going to be hard to not notice a possible $400M+ film. Wicked will be everywhere for the next two months and combine the halo from Broadway seems like it could happen.

Trumps win changes the whole race. Emilia Perez is the new frontrunner. This movie is gonna benefit from every anti trans comment he makes from now until the ceremony.

I really hope Demi manages to get a nomination for The Substance. It will be tough, she's never been nominated and they hate horror movies, but you never know. It has a message that will certainly resonate with the actors branch (if they watch the movie that is). And Demi really, really, really goes there and is totally exposed, uglifies herself, all those things they love.

Conclave looked like the "lots of nominations, 0 wins" on paper, but maybe it has a shot to win.