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 Call your shot - What wins Best Picture? 
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Devil's Advocate
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Post Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I do not see a clear frontrunner right now. What comes out in the end?

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Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:55 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
West Side Story or DUNE

currently thinking WSS

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Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:58 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
West Side Story, it's the most unexpected after the front runners were considered Power of the Dog and Belfast


Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:05 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I'm gonna be bold (and probably wrong) and say Licorice Pizza wins PTA his Best Picture. Mixes Power of the Dog reviews with accessibility and some of these voters were once teenagers in 70s LA.

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Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:36 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Suicide Squad

Obviously not, so I'll vote Dune.

Oh who am I kidding?

It's still gonna be Belfast.


Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:03 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
It very well could be Licorice Pizza. The subject matter will appeal to people in the industry. Otherwise Power of the Dog. I briefly thought WSS could but it's lost a lot of steam since. Same with Belfast. For the longest time that seemed like the only one that could win but it really doesn't feel like a Best Picture winner even if it checks all of the boxes for an old school Oscar bait movie. It would make for a very boring, safe winner.

Honestly maybe, just maybe CODA could win. I wouldn't predict it exactly but it should do great with the ranked ballot. It's a total crowd pleaser. Who wouldn't at the very least end up ranking it in their top 5? I feel like a lot of people would rank it in the top 3. It's still my favorite of the year which I'm sure will change when I see Licorice Pizza on Tuesday.


Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:12 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Pleaaase not Belfast.

Idk about Licorice Pizza as the whole adult woman getting with teenager thing is... something but who knows.

I'm probably gonna catch Power of the Dog this weekend but that seems pretty buzzy now


Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:03 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
This seems like such a weird year for the Oscars. (weird year for everything else too, I suppose) Granted, I haven't seen any of the "frontrunners" yet --- no Power of the Dog, no Belfast, no West Side Story, no Licorice Pizza, no CODA. But sight unseen, don't all of those seem odd, or slight, or uninteresting choices for BP?

I have seen Dune and King Richard, neither should or will come close to Best Picture. (if Dune II delivers on its promise, that could have a chance in 2024).

I'd love to see C'mon C'mon in the running or at least nominated but that's looking unlikely.

I'm gonna go wild and predict Don't Look Up wins in the end after a whisper / word-of-mouth campaign takes hold and sweeps the actor-showcase comedy/drama/satire to a big upset, and the first "big" Picture win for Netflix. Reviews be damned. Pretty sure it's a love it / hate it kind of movie, but a lot of people love it. It's got more real-world buzz than anything else besides Spider-man right now.

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Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:37 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Steve wrote:
This seems like such a weird year for the Oscars. (weird year for everything else too, I suppose) Granted, I haven't seen any of the "frontrunners" yet --- no Power of the Dog, no Belfast, no West Side Story, no Licorice Pizza, no CODA. But sight unseen, don't all of those seem odd, or slight, or uninteresting choices for BP?

I have seen Dune and King Richard, neither should or will come close to Best Picture. (if Dune II delivers on its promise, that could have a chance in 2024).

I'd love to see C'mon C'mon in the running or at least nominated but that's looking unlikely.

I'm gonna go wild and predict Don't Look Up wins in the end after a whisper / word-of-mouth campaign takes hold and sweeps the actor-showcase comedy/drama/satire to a big upset, and the first "big" Picture win for Netflix. Reviews be damned. Pretty sure it's a love it / hate it kind of movie, but a lot of people love it. It's got more real-world buzz than anything else besides Spider-man right now.


Bold but I think 56% RT 50 MC type reviews would be unprecedented. Green Book had 77 RT and 69 MC, Crash was also in 70s on RT. I think it's hard to go lower than that. I'd say King Richard is in play at 91% RT and 76 MC.

After seeing Power of the Dog I can see it just winning though, I think it has enough appeal to plot/storytelling type voters and is not just an art thing.

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Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:49 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Shack wrote:
Steve wrote:
This seems like such a weird year for the Oscars. (weird year for everything else too, I suppose) Granted, I haven't seen any of the "frontrunners" yet --- no Power of the Dog, no Belfast, no West Side Story, no Licorice Pizza, no CODA. But sight unseen, don't all of those seem odd, or slight, or uninteresting choices for BP?

I have seen Dune and King Richard, neither should or will come close to Best Picture. (if Dune II delivers on its promise, that could have a chance in 2024).

I'd love to see C'mon C'mon in the running or at least nominated but that's looking unlikely.

I'm gonna go wild and predict Don't Look Up wins in the end after a whisper / word-of-mouth campaign takes hold and sweeps the actor-showcase comedy/drama/satire to a big upset, and the first "big" Picture win for Netflix. Reviews be damned. Pretty sure it's a love it / hate it kind of movie, but a lot of people love it. It's got more real-world buzz than anything else besides Spider-man right now.


Bold but I think 56% RT 50 MC type reviews would be unprecedented. Green Book had 77 RT and 69 MC, Crash was also in 70s on RT. I think it's hard to go lower than that. I'd say King Richard is in play at 91% RT and 76 MC.

After seeing Power of the Dog I can see it just winning though, I think it has enough appeal to plot/storytelling type voters and is not just an art thing.

Fair points (except having seen King Richard, there’s no way enough people would put that at the top of their ballot, reviews be damned). Actually… “reviews be damned” is central to my (admittedly wild, long-shot) thesis. Fuck the consensus opinions, what actually speaks to / resonates with people? If nothing else we are in the age of the “unprecedented” occurring.

And it’s fair too that my guesses are based on my unseen perception of a lot of the movies in question more than the films themselves! whatever, it’s all fun and BS anyway.

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Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:40 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
It’s either West Side Story or Power of the Dog.with an edge to Dog.


Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:02 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
They both missed SAG Best Ensemble noms. As did Kristen. This trash season continues.

Disney only submitting one song towards the shortlist also has me wondering about that sort of thing happening in Best Picture. Is there just a list of 10-15 films going around and that's why the voters always get stuck picking mediocrity? Do they even watch that many? Do they just look at posters and say "Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem? That must be some fine acting!!"??


Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:56 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Yeah this is a weird season. I'm a big Gaga fan but to say her performance in Gucci is better than Kristen's in Spencer is... lol what


Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:14 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I'm going to join in the trash season club as well. There are just too many misses and wrong selections all over.


Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:02 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I'm still gonna say Power of the Dog right now with its SAG Ensemble snub being due to them not thinking it was a big enough ensemble or something, I don't see why they would nominate 3 of its actors and not give it Ensemble nod otherwise

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Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:21 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
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Prophet of Best Pictures, deleters of accounts, lookers of Dev Patels, name sharers of chess champions... we call on your departed spirit to return and predict this year's Best Picture winner

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Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:23 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick … Boom!
West Side Story

I think these will be the ten nominees. Nightmare Alley is the biggest wildcard now that it has a black and white cut.


Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:00 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
The winner will be TPOTD or WSS. Belfast has no chance at this point


Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:20 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
It does if most of the voters only watch 3-5 movies and Belfast is one of them. It was labeled as the early frontrunner after all.


Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:32 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I hated Power of the Dog but I'll give it points for not completely pandering to the voters. Sure there's some gay stuff in there, but it isn't framed in the typical "Its time for Hollywood to stand up to injustice!!" type of way. It's very weird.

West Side Story is a remake of a reboot that already won best picture.

Dune is sci-fi which means that it isn't a real movie.

Don't Look Up panders HARD but it is technically a comedy which means it is not a real movie.

CODA might be the darkhorse since Hollywood has been ultra hot for deaf people this year, but I just don't think enough voters will get a free trial of apple to watch it.

That leaves Belfast as the only logical winner.


Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:39 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
West Side Story is super woke and pandery and diverse though, that could be enough to overcome the remake stigma


Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:24 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Belfast, Power of the Dog, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Don't Look Up and CODA are too white to win.

That leaves West Side Story, King Richard, Drive My Car and Dune as the diverse nominees. Dune barely counts because all the main characters are white


Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:01 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
I'm watching CODA right now and if it was going to win they could have nominated in more acting categories. The music teacher guy got burned by Kotsur being in his category but I'm surprised Emilia Jones couldn't break in with the worst actress competition ever and had her Jennifer Lawrence Winter's Bone/Florence Pugh Little Women moment before she's in the MCU in 2 years.

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Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:51 pm
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
zwackerm wrote:
Belfast, Power of the Dog, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Don't Look Up and CODA are too white to win.

That leaves West Side Story, King Richard, Drive My Car and Dune as the diverse nominees. Dune barely counts because all the main characters are white


It may be white but CODA is still a "representation" movie and something they can feel good about themselves if it wins.

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Fri Mar 04, 2022 4:56 am
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Post Re: Call your shot - What wins Best Picture?
Power of the Dog is my prediction

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Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:36 pm
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