I think it looks like a hit, and I like the Harry Styles song choice

With that said the Martian is a pretty high bar at 300 million adjusted.

No, but something in the 30-40 range for the opening and over 100m total probably

Not even close. 60-80m total

Gosling is closer to box office poison than an A-lister. The only two hits he's had have been due to his pairing with the female lead. Barbie+Robbie and Modern Musical+Emma Stone, those films it was great to have Gosling AS WELL, but he was not a major factor. He cannot do it on his own.

And they are marketing this way too early. People will be fed up by next March (or think that it came out last year and missed it). It also has no visual appeal and it looks like a streaming release. As I said to stuffp, try imagining everything being the same but with it starring, say, Laurence Fishburne or Jason Statham. Would it be a huge hit? I don't think it would be, which means you're basing its success off of Gosling alone, and he doesn't have that much drawing power.

The Fall Guy was a slam dunk, but it underperformed. Blunt just isn't the same as Robbie or Stone? or was it Gosling that people don't care for? After all, Blunt has had success with A Quiet Place. Gosling has had many films that should have done way more than they did. First Man should have done more. He is lucky The Gray Man went on streaming because that would have highlighted his being a lame draw.

Don't get me wrong, I like the dude. But he is no Brad Pitt. And the title is too long. Just call it Hail Mary, ffs. No film with "project" in it will be huge, lol

The book is excellent, the best that has been released in the 2020s so far, and this is gonna be a real crowd pleaser. Damon would have been a better choice than Gosling as this does play as a spiritual sequel to The Martian, but he's still an A-lister despite a long list of box office bombs. I thought they gave too much away in the trailer, but seems like the Rocky bit at the end has been the main draw so I guess it was smart. Will be a must see breath of fresh air.

$60M opening / $210M total. Possibly even better legs than that if they nail it.