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| March 29-31 Predictions https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90472 |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | March 29-31 Predictions |
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire- 49m Ghostbusters -60% Kong and Panda will hold really well with Good Friday boosting them. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Fundraising prediction for the weekend? |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Mar 22, 2024 12:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Can a mod please move this to the box office forum I put it in here by mistake! |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Godzilla - 60m. Its a backloaded walkup friendly movie. Its going to open well for sure. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
It looks better than Ghostbusters at least. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
I'm still surprised this isn't a slam dunk monster hit. Godzilla v Kong reignited movie theaters after every other studio had left them for dead. I know Zaslav sucks, I want him fired more than anyone, but WB deserves a win here. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Godzilla vs Kong looks like a 4 year old's fever dream, I think it might be "too much" at this point, kind of how Transformers jumped the shark at one point $47M OW |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Frozen Empire had a very strong Saturday according to Empire and is playing like a family film. That bodes well for it over Easter even with Godzilla / Kong. The combo of Godzilla/Kong, Dune2, KFP4 and Ghostbusters with a long weekend should lead to some solid box office. |
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| Author: | flip1 [ Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Godzilla: 63m Ghostbusters: 18m Dune: 9m Panda: 8.5m |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Tue Mar 26, 2024 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
There are folks thinking OW in 70s is possible based on presale trend(it amped up big time yesterday). I would wait to see how it goes today. But thursday evening would behave like a friday and so previews will over perform relative to expectations and Friday is like a saturday. I am bumping up my OW predict to 65m but it has higher potential if trend continues. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Easter Is such a horrible release date, the pre sales will be misleading for it. The IM are terrible: GK would need a 34 million OD to flirt with 70 (And this has no where near the hype of the 2014 film to get to those numbers) Fantastic Beasts- 2.1 Furious 7- 2.2 BVS- 2.04 Mario- 2.66 (And that's only because it opened on Wednesday) Clash of the Titans- 2.13 I don't see this going much more than 28 million, but would not be surprised if it went as low as King of the Monsters which had 19 OD. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
It should be much less fan driven than most of those. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
The first barely did 2x its 5 day. Clash of the titans had no fanbase, this is the 5th sequel to an already pretty front loaded franchise. The first film made an X-men movie look like it had good legs. But it really doesn’t matter the genre, all films have similarly bad multipliers. I still remember when they thought it was a good idea to open grind house on Easter weekend. What Godzilla and Kong did 5 day would be about a 23 OD |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Budget is only 135m |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
KFP4's weekend is completely up in the air. On the one hand last weekend it dropped 50%. On the other, it's Monday was down 17% from last week and Tuesday is down 8%. More people on Easter Break now but will it have a great hold this weekend or will Godzilla / Kong give it a big drop? The weekend drop range could possibly go from it going up slightly to a 50% drop. It could go into the weekend with $141M or so and with a 4 day weekend will at least get it probably to $160M+. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Budget is only 135m How is it that low? Did they outsource the vfx to AI? |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
It looks cartoony from the trailer so maybe they just didn't try as hard. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Definitely thinking 70-75m OW at this point. Its set for the break out. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Most probable answer is that majority of screen time is with humans until about $100M+ shows up for the last 30 minutes. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
It must be a stinker if there's still no reviews. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
That means nothing. Every Fast and Furious flick is shit but they still make millions. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
its at 60% after 107 reviews with top critics its just at 38%. Metacritic is at 49. That said its not relevant for this monster porn movie. Let us rather see how Post Trak scores are. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Previews are looking at 9.5-10m range. Should be a huge breakout. OD should be in low to mid 30s and OW > 75m. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Would be huge! Proving again people still like movies where there's a recognizable character in the title, just as long as they're not superhero |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: March 29-31 Predictions |
Much needed overperformance! Need it going into April with Mario. Good March overall with Dune 2 ($275M+), KFP4 ($170M+), Ghostbusters ($120M+), Godzilla x Kong ($140M+) over 5 weeks. Godzilla Minus One was a great way to market the new movie. Let's see a double feature. |
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