This thread will be to test the theory that in the new era there will be more moderate hits like Anyone But You and the Beekeeper to make up for less blockbusters

50-99 million movies

January 2023: 2 (A Man Called Otto, M3gan)
January 2024: 2 (Mean Girls, The Beekeeper)

100-149 million: 0 for January in 2023/2024

February 2023 had Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution do 50-99 and March 2023 had 1 100-149 (Scream IV) and 2 50-99s (Shazam, Dungeons and Dragons) however the months after that were pretty barren for mid level hits so it's possible 2024 will separate itself then.

Argylle needs about 2.8 multiplier to reach 50

Put some respect on Cocaine Bear's name. It made over $60M!

Does Argylle count as a midlevel hit or is it just a bomb?

I think Web and Marly will do well enough but the rest of the month is fucked.

Yeah I meant to write 50-99

Good idea for a tracker thread.

May also be worth tracking the 30-49m tier as well but up to you.

Not bad dailies for Argylle so far (+90% Tuesday), the 50 mil dream is alive.

2023
A Man Called Otto
M3gan
Cocaine Bear
Jesus Revolution

2024
Mean Girls
The Beekeeper
Bob Marley: One Love (projected)

Argylle and Madame Web miss, both good opportunities like how 2023 missed on Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady

So far my theory looks a bit meh but the schedule punted on half the weeks this year.

March 2023:

50-99: Shazam, Dungeons and Dragons
100-150: Scream IV

65 was biggest missed opportunity and Creed III made too much.

2024 candidates: Imaginary, Kung Fu Panda 4, sleeper: Arthur the King. Neeson has another dark past dad movie (In the Land of Saints and Sinners), I guess after Beekeeper never say never?
100-150 candidates: Godzilla x Kong, Ghostbusters, (KFP4)

I think Imaginary has a good chance of opening higher than Panda but Panda will win total and worldwide.

It's not looking great for Imaginary but Cabrini could make up for it

Imaginary looks like a missed opportunity. Could have made bank in Jan/Feb.

Cabrini will make up for it indeed.

CW is getting absolute raves out of SXSW. One review I saw called it a masterpiece. I realize it seems at these fests everything does so hard to see what translates box office wise but it seems like it has the potential to be a zeitgeist type film. On RT, currently at 7/8 positive reviews.

Seems like it will be very divisive but it seems it will have enough attention on it that it could reach at least mid level. If it really dominates the conversation it's got the room since April is light overall. POTC rode controversy to big box office very quickly so definitely not at that scale but will be interesting to see how it does.

https://deadline.com/2024/03/sxsw-civil ... 235859532/

Looks like.2023 may grow its 50-99s lead with Panda being too big to count, Imaginary and Arthur too small, although Ghostbusters seems like it could match Shazam as a movie that only made 50-99 range cause it flopped. I guess the mid level hits of December was not a permanent trend quite yet and possibly relied on holiday season, kind of like how country music dominated billboard in the middle of last year but then receded somewhat. On the other hand if Ghostbusters does poorly, it continues to show the 2010s-y franchise reboot model is tired, which is part of what opened the door for a mid level films comeback in late 2023.

After March

50-99

2023 (6): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons
2024 (3): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley

100-149

2023 (1): Scream IV
2024 (1 projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife

150-199:

2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV
2024 (2 projected): Kung Fu Panda 4, Godzilla x Kong

April 2023 had two more 50-99s in Air and Evil Dead Rise.

Fly Me To The Moon looks like it has serious potential to be in the higher tier of mid level hit. Maybe $150M. Starpower, space, great release date mid July, broad appeal across demos, and could be a big comedy hit.

stuffp originally suggested it for our draft replacement before I talked him into the Wild Robot. Not sure I hate the decision so far as it looks a little caught between genres and might need to be Best Picture nominee quality to do something. I think Berlanti possibly should've gone TV series.

It was super brilliant of them to launch the trailer today. I saw the trailer all across eclipse TV coverage so a lot of eyeballs saw it and made complete sense with the space theme. Equivalent to a superbowl ad probably pushing it out today. Joker will dominate tomorrow though.

hmm Fly me to the Moon would have been a decent pick. Better than Wolfs and Red One Algren/Rev? Not sure.

The 60s do suit Scarlett though.

One thing I like about Wolfs is it's the No Way Home director's first movie after

Yeah, i liked the premise, but no way I see 150m based on the trailer...ScarJo and Tatum aren't stars that can get a big gross by themselves, it doesn't look that funny, and I'm not sure how the 60s space angle has appeal. The release date is great though, but I expect something closer to a 50m gross for it.