World of KJ
https://worldofkj.com/forum/

January 12-15 Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90364		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:06 pm ]
Post subject:  January 12-15 Predictions
Mean Girls 27/34
The Beekeeper 8/11
The Book of Clarence 4/6
Author:  Shack [ Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
I thought Mean Girls was breaking out but Keyser sounds a bit meh on it. Maybe a legs things with weak January competition after.
Author:  O [ Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
I still think there will be a lot of walk ups on it. The IP and love for the original is still strong even if its a musical. It will be week 4 for the holiday movies so people will want to see something new.

Big question for me is TCP. Any type of stabilization or benefit from MLK weekend? Likely not at the pace it's dropping so wonder if it can even get to $65M.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
Shack wrote:
I thought Mean Girls was breaking out but Keyser sounds a bit meh on it. Maybe a legs things with weak January competition after.


I did not have a sense of pace when I got initial data. Just that raw data did not scream anything big. Break out possibility is definitely there. Let us see how things go.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
I think its opening > 30m till MLK day at this point. Pace is good. Wednesday early shows are depressing thursday number at this point. But it will do ok in the end. I am thinking 3m ish previews and 25m till Sunday and Probably tad over 30m over 4 days. I did go too low in Monthly game for sure.
Author:  O [ Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
I took a look at the best OW to total multipliers for movies that opened with $1M+ and ABY could very well double the #3 Sound of Freedom. This upcoming MLK weekend will drive a lot of the trajectories for the holiday movies. TCP benefits from a subdued 3day weekend to still get a good multiple since its opening day wouldn't have been included.

Movie Domestic BO OW

Anyone But You $100,000,000 $6,000,344 16.67
The Iron Claw $60,000,000 $4,868,370 12.32
Migration $130,000,000 $12,453,275 10.44
Sound of Freedom $184,178,046 $19,680,879 9.36
The Boys in the Boat $65,000,000 $8,400,548 7.74
Ferrari $25,000,000 $3,921,773 6.37
Wonka $220,000,000 $39,005,800 5.64
The Color Purple $65,000,000 $11,737,072 5.54
Godzilla Minus One $60,000,000 $11,419,975 5.25
Elemental $154,426,697 $29,602,429 5.22
Aquaman 2 $135,000,000 $27,686,211 4.88
Author:  MadGez [ Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
If ABY makes $100m it would a very similar run to Scream in 96.

Looking at the above - can't help feel that Christmas BO ended up doing reassuringly well with the wealth spread around various films and genres. Healthier than the singular film dominance we have seen in recent years.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
Mean Girls 32
The Beekeeper 12
The Book of Clarence 4
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
Walkups were not good for Mean girls today while Beekeeper did very well with them. I would say ~2.7m for MG and ~1.5m for Beekeper for just thursday. If they including early shows ~3.4m for MG and ~2.5m for Beekeeper(it had early shows on Saturday and also had more shows compared to wednesday early shows for MG). Friday sales for MG is 4x Beekeeper and looking at close to 12-13m OD including previews.

Overall thinking high 20s OW for MG and around 33m ish till MLK. Beekeeper probably 12m ish till Sunday.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
Any particular reason Beekeeper is doing so much better than a typical Statham?
Author:  Jonathan [ Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Any particular reason Beekeeper is doing so much better than a typical Statham?


I was just wondering this myself, since even at his peak in 2005-08 peak he only once cracked a $13M opening, and for most of the last 15 years he hasn't really had a mid-budget hit. That said, MGM/Amazon has been pretty aggressive in selling this (even getting IMAX!), and I do think though this is the first straight-forward Dad Actioner in a while, so that might be bringing out an audience that hasn't been out to the movies in a while.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
The Beekeeper is also a “so ridiculous it’s intriguing” title for an action film.
Author:  Algren [ Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 12-15 Predictions
The marketing was good and consistent for Beekeeper. It looked cool.
Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/