Minecraft is set to open the same weekend as Mario did, April 5, 2025. Easter in its 3rd weekend.

Jack Black was just announced to join the cast joining Jason Mamoa. Enid Sinclair (Wednesday's roommate from the Netflix show) is also in it so could appeal to multi-demographic audiences.

Minecraft makes hundreds of millions in revenue a year so seems primed for a mega breakout.

This has the inklings of a Jumanji type run ($300M+) if all goes well for it. Another 2 years of inflation as well.

Then there's the pre-existing fanbase. 166 million monthly active users as of December 2023 worldwide. If 1/10 of them watch this movie it would do $183M alone.

The other big plus for me though is Mamoa's box office prowess feels a lot higher than I expected. There's an audience that still showed up to see him in Aquaman and I don't think as many people would have tolerated all of the bad press, reviews, etc. if he wasn't in it. He seems to have some box office pull to anchor this type of movie.

Impossible to tell without a trailer but I’d be willing to bet at least Detective Pikachu numbers

Minecraft is big, second biggest game of all time, but that number is misleading. Unlike Mario this game doesn’t have the cross generational appeal and hasn’t entered the overall cultural zeitgeist in the same fashion. I think it would do well like the Sonic movies on appeal alone, but nothing ground breaking

I agree with Darth, however movies have a tendency to make that jump into the cultural zeitgeist for certain properties, and perhaps this one will work for Minecraft, particularly if it's made by Illumination or has a popular star involved. Currently going with sub-$100m but let's see how it unfolds.

Pending what it looks like it will be big - $300m+ as Minecraft is indeed a monster. Kids are aware of the film and it hasnt even started production. Thougb agree with DIB - it doesnt have the cross generational appeal of Mario.

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