With 12 days left of 2023, the gap is now $519.716M to $9B.
ONLY have to average out to $43.3M for the rest of the year.
Luckily Tuesday's top 10 grossed about $11.7M.
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| December 22-25 Predictions https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90331 |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | December 22-25 Predictions |
Aquaman- 37/50 Migration- 17/25 Color Purple 8m Monday Wonka -45% |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Dec 15, 2023 12:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Whatever the lowest prediction is, it goes lower. Catastrophe. < 100 mil total even with holiday legs. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
I think Aquabro and Migration would be lower than Zwackerm's predictions. Thinking low 30s/45m for it and low double digits and 20m for Migration. Color Purple on the other hand has insane sales for Christmas day and then drops off like a cliff. I am thinking mid to high teens on Christmas day. Ferrari is also opening right on that day. Should have a good OD. it has early Dolby screenings next wednesday ahead of opening on Christmas day. Holdovers all will have great Christmas day as well. Wonka already has good sales for Christmas day. |
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| Author: | pro1986 [ Fri Dec 15, 2023 8:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Put me down for 20+ opening day for The Color Purple with great WOM and and legs over the holidays l. Not even going to bother with Aquaman and Migration |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Aquabro - $30M Migration - $13M Color Purple will do well I think. Seems to be a huge deal for that community. Kind of dumb to not open it a few days before Xmas for some extra holiday bucks. Still should make more than Aquabro and Duck movie though. Wonka will rule over all of them, possibly even repeat at #1. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Dec 17, 2023 3:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
HG is tracking for $165.9M total if it follows CF from it's 5th weekend on. Seems like it will be a movie people catch up on so still feeling it can do $170M+. Getting to $174.5M would push it past MI and IJ which would be a good place to finish. I'm feeling a mini Puss In Boots type run of Migration. I wouldn't be shocked if it pulls an under $15M OW and then legs it out to 8X+ multiplier. Just doesn't feel like a movie anyone would rush too and an under $10M OW wouldn't be shocking though it's legs will be fantastic. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
I’d say 170 is in the cards at 5.8 weekend going into the holidays, offshoot chance to pass MI7 and Indy. |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Dec 19, 2023 1:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Annual box office as of Dec. 17th is $8,459,886,848. Need $540.1M to get to $9B. Not likely to happen but on the plus side we have two full weekends left. Conservatively let's give movies some grosses from here on out until Dec. 31st: Wonka +$130M HG +$20M Trolls +$20M Heron +$15M Godzilla +15M Other current holdovers +$30M That leaves $310.1M. Smaller movie grosses until Dec. 31st: American Fiction $5M Anyone But You $10M The Iron Claw $10M The Boys in the Boat $5M Ferrari $5M That leaves about $275.1M and three larger releases. Big releases: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $100M Migration $60M The Color Purple $60M It's good that The Color Purple is looking frontloaded as it will help 2023's grosses. That would bring the gap left to $9B of about $55.1M. We just need 1 other big breakout to possibly have that chance to top $9B. If one of those mid term expanders really takes off will help but I'm cheering for an Aquaman overperformance somehow. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Feel like Aquaman goes the other way and falls way short of that 100 mil number for 2023 gross, but Anyone But You could do surprisingly well. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Aquaman reactions are putrid and presales have not picked up that much. its probably going to open below Blue Beetle(PS is better at this point but Christmas Even will impact OW big time plus reactions will be worse). Color Purple on the other hand has good reviews and presales are off the charts. i think 20m+ on Christmas is likely at this point. Wonka has 2nd highest presales for Christmas day and will have great holidays for sure. Aquaman and Migration look DOA. |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
So looking like Aquman will probably do a Passengers type run its sounding like. I still think Migration could do single digit OW and somehow pull off $100M. Especially with Wish going into its 5th week and Trolls in its 6th. this upcoming weekend. Color Purple is going to be an interesting one to watch. I can see it fall off a cliff quickly at first after opening and then a flood of people watch it again for MLK weekend (school trips, group showings). I'm finding its total gross the hardest one of these openers to predict. And our annual box office tally is now $532M away from $9B... |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
The Boys in the boat have stronger presales than Ferrari at this point. So Top 6 for christmas day could be 1) Color Purple by far 2) Wonka 3) Aquabro 2 4) The Boys in the boat 5) Migration 6) Ferrari |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
The Color Purple reminds me of Ali in 2001. It dominated Christmas day and them fell off. Purple will probably hang around longer though. |
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| Author: | pro1986 [ Wed Dec 20, 2023 9:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Wonka and The Color Purple will have great legs this Christmas. Both have really good reviews and are huge crowd pleasers. |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Dec 20, 2023 9:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
With 12 days left of 2023, the gap is now $519.716M to $9B. ONLY have to average out to $43.3M for the rest of the year. Luckily Tuesday's top 10 grossed about $11.7M.
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Aquaman 2 seems like such a non event like it’s easy to forget it’s coming out tomorrow. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 5:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
I saw Anyone But You tonight and that was an enjoyable time. I think it's going to perform similarly to Second Act. That opened on December 21st with 6.489 and went on to gross over 39 Million. I wouldn't be concerned with a low opening this weekend. It will leg out. I hope it does well anyway. I'd love to see more rom coms getting released in theaters again. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 5:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Romcoms used to be so big this time of year. To see Something's Got To Give have a $16M/$125M run in 2003 (more like $190M now). Can you imagine a rom com making that much now?! Streaming has commoditized that genre's box office potential but seeing Crazy Rich Asians do $26.5M/$175M in 2018 (now $200M+) shows that it's still theoretical possible theatrically. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
I definitely blame streaming and The Hallmark Channel. People get their fill of romance from those places. But I'd rather watch better quality, theatrical-worthy romance movies. It used to be such a lucrative genre. And there usually was one every December. Maid in Manhattan did almost 100 Million with a December release. Also in December, What Women Want did 184 Million. Two Weeks Notice opened to a bit over 14 Million December 20th-22nd and legged out to over 93 Million. What was the last big December rom com one? Off the top of my head I'd say It's Complicated. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Yeah Rom Coms were just huge in general and especially in December. 2002 had both Maid in Manhattan and Two Weeks Notice. As Good as it Gets was a monster in 97. Must adjust close to $300m now. We used tp also get moderate grossing star vehicle rom com/dramas like The Family Stone or The Holiday. Sadly long gone. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
I assume part of it was actors passing on it and nobody wanting to make some mediocre quality Brides Wars type script, the smart strategy was to have franchise films and Oscar movies with nothing in between hence years like ScarJo's Endgame+Marriage Story/JoJo Rabbit, Ruffalo's career, mid 2010s JLaw, etc. you can't really go wrong with that if your franchise is guaranteed box office like MCU's was and you work with high quality Oscar directors. However with the decline of superhero movies it throws things into flux where if someone wants to become a bigger star maybe they have no choice, especially when it comes to actresses where there's going to be less genres available for them than the lead male roles. But even in the case of males like Glen Powell maybe it's a better idea to just rip off a bunch of early 2000s McConaughey projects than be the next Scott Summers on a sinking ship. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: December 22-25 Predictions |
Pretty striking: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/genre/sg2111762689/ Only ONE $55M+ romantic comedy in the last 8.5 years, Crazy Rich Asians. What Men Want's $54,611,903 in 2019 vs What Woman Want's $182,811,707 in 2000 (#2 rom com of all time) is so striking. I think the ingredients are there though for a zeitgeist type rom com that catches on like There's Something About Mary but it's going to need to be exceptional. |
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