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December 8-10 predictions
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Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:20 pm ]
Post subject:  December 8-10 predictions

The Boy and the Heron - ... I think if the release was over 2,000 theaters this could've done what I thought initially. Seems like over $10m may be enough for #1? We'll see.

Die Hard will be in Dolby theaters, looking forward to that!

Author:  Shack [ Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Too bad Heron doesn’t have more theatres though should still do decent. Hunger Games keeps rolling.

Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Heron I think should do around10m. Suzume did 5m and that was way lower profile. I’ve seen a lot of marketing for this one.

Author:  O [ Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

The early showings were huge and high in demand in my area. I think it will do decently! Probably will be a HG win if it has a slim hold.

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Heron's release seem to be smaller than -1. So not sure it can hit 10m this weekend. However there is robust demand for early imax shows today.

Author:  O [ Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Sadly looks like Saltburn's box office is going to get cut short. It will be on Prime before Christmas.

Still a great run and should have nice holds over the next 2 weeks.

Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

O wrote:
Sadly looks like Saltburn's box office is going to get cut short. It will be on Prime before Christmas.

Still a great run and should have nice holds over the next 2 weeks.


To be fair, with everything coming out, it would be taken out of most theaters by then anyway. I'm hoping it hits double digits.

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Dec 06, 2023 2:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Looking at Heron's BO till saturday, its definitely opening > 10m. Friday PS is considerably higher than Thursday and Saturday is even higher than that. Thinking low teens now after expansion seen in showtimes today.

Author:  O [ Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Tues #'s

1. HUNGER GAMES ($1.8M) -32.9%
2. GODZILLA MINUS ONE ($1.7M)
3. NAPOLEON ($1M) -50.0%

Wowsa at HG. It's drops keep getting better. Can it somehow pull a $10M+ 4th weekend (29.45% drop or better)? Could be at a $136M total after 4 weekends off of a $44.61M OW (3.05X multiplier). That's with the holidays still coming up.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Even if it's grossing to the opening of the first 2... nice to see legs are very good for THG.

Rooting for Boy and the Heron to be #1!

Author:  O [ Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

HG sort of feels like what Fantastic Beasts should have done.

The originals just opened so massively. Surprisingly out of 4 movies, none of them reached a 2.8+ multiplier.

HG needs to get to $178.5M ish to pull off a 4X multiplier which isn't impossible. Even if it started so much smaller it's legs being so much better is definitely a great sign for LG in terms of the IP's value.

Hypothetically if Lawrence came back I feel like $200M could be the floor if the quality was there.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Too bad Godzilla didn't get a proper run in premium screens, the past couple of days the 7pm Imax show is pretty full

Author:  O [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Feels like Godzilla could give Heron a run for its money in a duel of Japanese movies!

Godzilla Minus One now at $14.36M is the highest grossing live-action Japanese film in North America. Toho said is adding screens to reach 2,540 locations.

Godzilla Minus One will top The Adventures of Milo & Otis (a comedy adventure with orange tabby cat Milo and pug Otis) from 1989/1990 re-release.

Pretty impressive after 5 days. Looks like this could play very well over the holidays with superb WOM.

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

What do Milo and Otis have anything to do with this? Loved that movie when I was young. :funny:

Author:  O [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Godzilla broke it's record as highest grossing LIVE ACTION Japanese movie ever. Not that it matters much but we be breaking very important records in this post Marvels/Wish world where we ain't got much more to be excited about box office wise!

Let's celebrate the massive blockbuster success of Godzilla as it breaks 30 year old records with its $15M tally!!! :D

Author:  O [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Godzilla takes #1 again from THG on Wed. That's a 40.42% drop for HG vs last Wed so much steeper than its other dailies.

Wed

1. GODZILLA -1 $1.36M
2. HUNGER GAMES $1.1M
3. Napoleon $700K
4. The Shift $468K
5. Thanksgiving $220K

Godzilla's Wed # is bigger than its Mon # and a strong hold from Tuesday. It's going to have an exceptional weekend and seems like it could be a darkhorse blockbuster if it really builds buzz and wom gets out pre Christmas.

Could be at $25M after its second weekend. Can it do $50M+?

Just so interesting to see THG and Godzilla as the market's response to Marvels/Wish flopping. People want to watch movies they just didn't want to watch what the big studios were serving.

Author:  MadGez [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

This is so good for Godzilla Minus 1. Looks like it can be a player through December.

The question: will this success help or hinder Godzilla X Kong?

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

MadGez wrote:
This is so good for Godzilla Minus 1. Looks like it can be a player through December.

The question: will this success help or hinder Godzilla X Kong?


I think hollywood's version of zilla would be other extreme. But for OW I think it will be net positive.

I think Zilla will barely drop or even increase a bit this weekend. Its losing PLF but adding shows overall to make up for it. Plus the weekend trend would be way stronger than last week.

Heron is also looking really good. May be as high as low to mid teens OW. We are going to see Japanese movie take up Top 2 slots this weekend.

Author:  O [ Fri Dec 08, 2023 1:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Woo! Japan centric weekend. Weekends in the teens this time but I'd say within 5 years we'll probably see $30M+ weekends. Japanese culture is very much in the mainstream with the 1300% increase in travel with Japan between 2019 to 2023! Maybe we'll see a $100M+ performer sometime too.

Let's see a full Pokemon movie live action or Illumination movie. That's going to print $$$!!!

Author:  pookpooi [ Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 8-10 predictions

Could this be the first time ever in North America box-office history that top two spots belong to Japanese movies? (At least for a day)

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