Napoleon - 3m previews

Seems solid.

Wish - 2.3m

Shawn Robbins said Wish includes 0.5m of early shows BO.

Napoleon is very good and Points to at least 30m over 5 days

Wish is at least better than Strange World an on par with Elemental.

Tues:

1. HUNGER GAMES ($6.5M)
2. TROLLS ($4.7M)
3. NAPOLEON ($3M)
4. WISH ($2.3M)
5. THANKSGIVING ($1.5M)
6. THE MARVELS ($1.5M)

Looks like Marvels is getting past $80M thanks to Thanksgiving weekend afterall. Will be at $67.5M going into the 5day weekend.

Trolls #1 had a 3.0944X multiplier for its Mon/Tues gross to 5day Thanksgiving gross in 2016. If Trolls 3 follows that route it will get to $24.66M for the 5day weekend. That was with Moana opening on Wed.

If HG Mon/Tues is extrapolated to Catching Fire's pattern (3.8725X multiplier), it could head for $45.57M over the 5 days.

Seems good for Hunger Games and Trolls

That's good for Napoleon. At least it will make decent coin (even if it misses $100m). Perhaps the weak December will help it get there.

Early Deadline numbers
1) Wish 8.7m Wed (including 2.3m in previews) 24-27m 3day/ 40-45m over 5 days
2) Hunger Game 7m Wed / 25-31m/ 36-45m
3) Napoleon 7.4m Wed (3m in previews) /low 20s 3 day/28-32m
4) Trolls 5m Wednesday / 18m 3day/ 26.3m 5 day
5) Thanksgiving 1.7m Wed / 9m over 5 days

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office ... 235634036/

Great for HG but meh for the rest.

That would be good for everything but Wish which will struggle to 100m total.

Based on data I could see Wish on par with Encanto OD. So around 6m true wednesday and 8.3m with previews. I think walkups were affected by meh reviews for sure. Not sure if this is sufficient for 40m over 5 days as I am expecting 30%ish drop tomorrow due to Thanksgiving.

Napoleon with previews should be almost on par with Wish with previews. Wish will still win the weekend between the 2 but Hunger Games could still end up taking the cake.

Wish disappointing would be quite the unfortunate way for Disney to close their 2023. Guardians 3 was their only actual hit of the entire year, with The Little Mermaid and Elemental doing well too just sort of "good enough" results there.

And am I missing something, or do they not have anything for the first half of 2024? Inside Out 2 is the only film I see between now and June? Between Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3 they should have a strong summer 2024, but going basically a full year(+), May/June 2023 to June/July 2024 between certified hit films is quite the drought.

Wish was yet another $200M budget for Disney. They really need to start making movies for cheaper, the 'everything-is-a-mega-tentpole' ethos is backfiring big time.

Disney is a $169B market cap company compared to Apple at $2.98T (17.6X bigger).

Disney had a $200M movie open this weekend. Apple had a $200M movie open this weekend.

Napoleon will make less but will probably become more successful. Granted its a massive tech company but if Apple spent % wise what Disney did in terms of budget to their corporate market cap, Apple would be greenlighting $3.5B budgeted movies.

It's really hard to see how traditional studios will be able to compete once Amazon and Apple really ramp up into theatrical films.

Disney's flops this year collectively probably together budget wise wouldn't even be 0.1% of Apple's market cap almost as a rounding error.

Wed's #'s (and Variety's projections)

1 Wish $8.3M ($37M+)
2 Napoleon $7.7M ($30M+)
3 HG $7.3M ($40M)
4 Trolls $5.1M ($27M)
5 Thanksgiving $1.8M ($10.1M)
6 Marvels $1.5M

Total Thanksgiving box office $190M projection (would put us at $8.14B for the year).

Story of this weekend is Hunger Games and not the openers. That is a surprise for sure considering its B+ cinemascore.

We've talked a lot about Disney's live action imaginings, MCU, and SW ruts but here's more detail on Disney animation from Thanksgiving 2019 to now that is so clear this weekend of the mess:

Pixar: Onward, Soul, Luca, Turning Red, Lightyear, Elemental
Fox: Spies In Disguise, Ron's Gone Wrong, Bob's Burgers
Disney: Raya, Encanto, Strange World, Wish

The only ones that really struck a chord with audiences in a major way post Frozen 2 as breakouts feel like Turning Red and Encanto. That's 2 for 13 which is absolutely horrendous. And those two didn't even fully benefit from theatrical. AND ticket prices have gone up an estimated 18.8% since Frozen 2 making matters even worse.

The sequel for Encanto is headed for $400M+ once it's announced and Turning Red definitely feels like it could have done $250M+ in regular non-pandemic times and remains a big hit years later on streaming.

I can't understand which section of Disney is the worse off in terms of a recovery. The Fox acquisition hasn't really felt like it's brought them much compelling impact from an IP perspective theatrically at all yet other than Avatar and DP/Xmen shortly.

Disney hasn't had an animated movie make $155M+ in 4 years despite 13 attempts. That's mind boggling even with the pandemic because Frozen 2 is their #1 movie of all time for Disney animation. Take out Pixar and they haven't had a $100M+ animated movie since Frozen 2. Encanto finished with $96M.

Hunger Games is delivering for the fans, something MCU hasn't really done besides Guardians this year lol

I agree, live action Disney comes and goes but the animation is their base, movies like Wish and Lightyear not hitting audience reception wise really hurts.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but IJ5 looks better after going through this fall slate.

IJ5 could have been the highest grossing movie of the last 4 months if it came out in September or October. Maybe school field trips would have helped it too.

As bad as it was box office wise, feels like the entire Disney slate will look better now if both Marvels and Wish fail to pass $100M which could happen.

I do think Wish will be watched on D+. The Marvels is the worst for me since with its theatrical style MCU had a proven track record even in the D+ era.

A possible 34-35% 3day drop for HG is fantastic. The best second weekend 3day hold the previous 4 movies could do was 49%. This film feels very much like a Batman Begins type reset and if it holds well enough maybe it can have another bump over the holidays. $150M+ is happening but $200M would need a great post Thanksgiving hold.

Incorporate Katniss somehow into the next one and bigger stars and could set the stage for increasing box office grosses.

There's no new book to adapt, it's more likely this was a one-off. Unless Suzanne Collins pulls a JK Rowling/Fantastic Beasts and tries to conceive stories directly for films.

I’ve been seeing a lot of Katniss nostalgia on twitter but I have doubts about JLaw wanting back.

Think the producers haven't been sure how to bring her back but she seems down for it.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jenn ... 235776045/

Yeah, there are no more books to adapt, so I don't think they'd have a story to interest fans unless, as Barrabas said, Collins decided to write a sequel book/series.

They could try something original with Collins being involved... but hard to excite fans going that route.

Pretty funny how Disney+ has cheapened MCU, Disney Animation, Star Wars and Pixar.... or in other words theatrical Disney. 2019 was such a crazy year for them and they just threw it away to be in even more debt


Wish and Trolls may end up having similar totals. Surprisingly Trolls was a stronger movie so rooting for it lol