My guess is 6 weeks, and it finally gets dethroned by The Equalizer 3 in early September. If it gets beat in August, I feel like either Oppenheimer or Sound of Freedom has greater shot than an August opener.

Going to go with Strays. Sausage Party did $34M and feel Strays can break out further.

I sort of don't want Oppenheimer to get #1 though I think it has a fair chance to do it over the next few weeks. It seems like the best chance to take down Sing as top grossing movie to never be #1.

It's a hard list to move up. Out of the current top 4, Sing is the only one to have been released in the last 13 years.

1 Sing $270,395,425 2016
2 My Big Fat Greek Wedding $241,438,208 2002
3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $219,614,612 2009
4 Alvin and the Chipmunks $217,326,974 2007

A Star Is Born made it to #5 in 2018. Would be cool to see a $350M+ movie never reach #1. Feels like it would take a long time for another movie to possibly top it.

Oppenheimer on the 8/11 weekend.

I also went with Strays.

We could have two films crack the top 5 with Oppenheimer and maybe Sound of Freedom

Sound of Freedom was #1 for a day so it can't make this list.

I went with Blue Beetle.

This would have been my pick if it wasn't losing most of its IMAX screens to Gran Turismo that weekend. Strong WOM will give it legs regardless, but I do think it'll really feel the loss of those screens that weekend.

I'm gonna say it goes strong until Equalizer 3.

This is where it gets tricky, that list on Mojo is full of movies that went #1 on some day throughout their releases, just not a weekend #1.

Interstellar: #1 first Wed, Fri and Mon etc.
MBFGW: #1 Labor Day
Alvin2: #1 opening day
Star is Born: #1 first Thursday and other dailies
Sherlock: #1 opening day
Ice Age: DoD: #1 midweek

Alvin Sing, WWZ, don't appear to have been #1 at all during their runs.

So I'd count Sound just because 6 of the top 10 also would have an asterisk otherwise as it seems its typically been tracked by not #1 on weekends. Sing seems the definite #1 regardless of methodology though.

Gran Turismo will top it on wknd 4

But I’m hoping it doesn’t lol

Blue beetle giga bombing will allow it to stay on top until equalizer.

Was just thinking about weekends but yes it was No.1. I guess as O pointed out - it cam still be counted as it didn’t have a weekend at no.1.

I didn’t put much thought into it but voted for Meg 2… realizing now that probably won’t happen unless it opens to $70m+

I think it'll stay #1 all of August.

I think Meg 2 will be a bit of a hit. Just not big enough to dethrone barbie

I think Strays is the first movie that could possibly do it, but even that is unlikely.

I’d say probably Equalizer 3. So it will be number 1 for 6 weeks.

Week 2 90m
Week 3 54m
Week 4 35m
Week 5 27m
Week 6 18m

That's a bummer. Nobody is gonna see Gran Turismo that weekend. Or Blue Beetle the next. All the studios should just shift things back a couple weeks (or months) in preparation for a long actors/writers strike.

TMNT has a slight chance but it needs a mega breakout of $60M+ for it to happen. Reviews are helping. If it plays like a family film and brings them out in droves could help. Barbie would need a harsher 3rd weekend drop too.

TMNT has opening similar to MI7. Early previews on tuesday plus Sneaks on Sunday(700 shows just US) and Early shows on PLF(530 in US) on Monday. So big 3 day weekend can be ruled out. with 60m 3-day you are talking about 90m+ by end of 1st Sunday. That is too high for sure.

Ahh, forgot about the early opening! Definitely won't go THAT high. Still hope for a breakout regardless.

Gran Turismo moves to 8/25, becoming the likely #1 that weekend,

Is Gran Turismo really gonna open to 20m? I don't see it

If it gets great reviews I can see a decent opening.

Is it likely to get great reviews? It stars Orlando Bloom for pete's sake!

Blue Beetle tracking towards $30m opening, which should be enough to beat Barbie on 8/18....

https://deadline.com/2023/08/box-office ... 235456911/