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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18879 Location: San Diego
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Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Deadline saying 9m for Flash, 3.5m for Elemental.
Hopefully for the weekend Flash/Elemental/Blackening combine for like $110m+
Keen to see how holdovers do!
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:10 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Just barely above Transformers is crazy.
Pretty decent for Elemental though? Lightyear had a 10x preview multiplier and I'd expect Elemental to be much less frontloaded. Would be cool to see it hit $40M though it'll probably be in the $37-39M range.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:19 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38010
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Seems bad for the Flash
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:45 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
At least it will likely outgross Shazam in its OW. Thank you Shazam for making all other movies disappointing this year have an out.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:02 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Bad for Flash but good for Elemental.
WB/DC announcing the new DC regime + Ezra Miller allegations ultimately hurt it.
Should have been a $250m grosser but now beating Black Adam should be it’s first check mark. It can go beyond that with decent legs.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:54 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
After seeing The Flash yesturday I'M EVEN MORE PISSED OFF AT ZASLAV FOR CANCELLING BATGIRL because Keaton kicked ass as BATMAN! I want to see more of him and can't because of FUCK FACE ZASLAV
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:15 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
As I posted in prediction thread, Deadline early preview numbers tend to be off. Comscore does not show data for previews in real time as its part of Friday number :-) They are low on Flash and too high on Elemental !!!
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:14 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18879 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
$9.7m for Flash. That should be good for $70m+ but we'll see.
Spiderverse dropping only 18% despite Flash opening is pretty great.
And yeah, $2.4m for Elemental.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:19 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Shit for Flash. I was expecting so much more
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:26 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
I think Sinclair and co. can say bye-bye to $150 million. It's dropping 1,282 theatres this weekend, and with being in the blockbuster months its going to be forgotten very quickly.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:01 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Spider-verse is catering to The Flash's audience and it was WAY too close to it IMO. Really mindboggling that neither Flash or Elemental thought to move back 1 week after the buzz and hype was going up for Spider-verse. It's made $252M in 2 weeks going into its 3rd weekend. Surely they had a better chance with IJ5 in their second weekend AND a holiday weekend cushion in their second weekend! Is No Hard Feelings projected to do Hunger Games box office or something? I must have missed that tracking memo. On top of the Ezra issues, really momentum is a powerful thing at the box office. Movies spring upward or downward based on their predecessors. Think Uncharted post Spider-man. Or Alice post Avatar as the next big 3D movie blockbuster. Here on the other end, you had Black Adam, then Shazam leading into The Flash. Add in bad buzz from fans on DC project cancelations. It should have seriously considered moving to August and the fact they didn't see the writing on the wall after Shazam's performance that maybe they needed a less crowded release date is a major goof up (on top of all the goof ups at WB). I do think Spider-verse's impact here is >>> Ezra. And Black Adam + Shazam >>>>>>>>>>> Ezra
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:31 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash has a $220M budget so they better hope overseas numbers are huge...
_________________ .
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:32 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38010
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Ezra didn't help but I think the gas is just out of the balloon for superhero movies
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:47 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Next weekend could really be a free for all on who's going to be #1. I'm all for it.
Can No Hard Feelings massively overperform and pull a surprise (likely not)?
Will The Flash fall off a cliff out of the #1 spot?
Can Elemental hold well off of WOM or good reception to have an insane hold to make a run for #1?
Can Transformers defy its lackluster dailies and become a weekend movie with better than expected holds (likely not)?
Will Spider-verse have a great hold this weekend that can keep it in the running for #1 next weekend?
Feel like Elemental has a decent shot the worse Flash does in terms of frontloadedness this weekend. Animation for the win yet again in June if that happens.
Something like this as a hypothetical of what a packed top 6 would look like:
Flash $28.5M -62% Elemental $26.6M -30% Spider-verse $24.1M -30% No Hard Feelings $18M Transformers $14M -40% TLM $10M -30%
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:38 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
If The Flash flops then we're all going to have to have a serious discussion about how much trailers actually matter. Cause those things have been blowin up the net for months now.
Also, Elemental dropping by over $1M from early estimates can't be a good sign. My hopes of it going over $40M are probably dead and even $30M might be a fight.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:49 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
WOM will be interesting for Flash. I see a solid number of people who are on board the "one of the great comic book movies I've ever seen" train, and then those at a different station entirely. I guess you can call it a mixed reaction, but mixed usually implies most are in the middle somewhere. Seems fairly equally split between "masterpiece" and "disappointment" to me right now.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:18 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18879 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Deadline is saying $26m for Flash and $11m for Elemental.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:58 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
That would at least get Elemental to 30m to be the highest original animated movie post pandemic opening, which is still Encanto.
and likely 100m. Which is still not great but not terrible compared to other original animated movies post pandemic.
Highest opening for a non IP film post pandemic is still Nope’s 44m
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:06 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Elemental missing $100M in any circumstance is horrendous. It would be a shoes drop moment.
-$200M budget -Only the second Pixar movie ever to miss $100M after Onward which all but certainly would have if not for Covid off of a $39M OW (likely dented by fears of Covid as well). -Pixar's lowest OW since 1995 with the original TS1 at $29M. That had a Wed Thanksgiving opening. -Even if an original IP, both Mario and Spider-verse opened to $120M+ in the last two months. Animation is hot right now. Puss's total at nearly $185M also plays into animation's momentum. -$51M OW from Lightyear last year seen as a colossal disappointment.
I can forgive OW but it needs some nice holds for a respectable run and has to find its way to $100M+. LY was a disaster. If it can get past there Pixar can save some face.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:19 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash already has a lower audience score on RT than black Adam and on par with Ant man through the same point. I don’t think WOM will be better than meh. Comic book movies have such inflated audience scores that anything below 90 isn’t great.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:22 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
I told y’all Keaton as Batman was not a draw.
Horrible numbers for both openers. DC is hanging on by a thread at this point and Pixar’s brand value is dead.
_________________ .
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:00 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21890 Location: Places
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Struggling to think of a weekend where broader industry changes were on display than this one. The mighty Pixar has been terribly wounded. DC is very, very messy. Superhero overload clearly caught up to generation Z.
But on the other hand, Spiderverse is a certified megahit.
The times, they are a changing...
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
Last edited by Excel on Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:43 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21890 Location: Places
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
zwackerm wrote: Flash already has a lower audience score on RT than black Adam and on par with Ant man through the same point. I don’t think WOM will be better than meh. Comic book movies have such inflated audience scores that anything below 90 isn’t great. There is a base of real glowing enthusiasm here though. It has some haters weighing it down. We'll see what happens.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:44 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash is truly disastrous. At least Elemental is doing on the low end of expectations. Flash is doing a little more than half of guardians and spiderverse
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:33 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18879 Location: San Diego
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Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Thinking Flash doing $100m+ OW was really ridiculous looking back. I was jazzed about it because the trailers looked really good but I think the film itself wasn't a slam dunk, which is what it needed to be in order to do well (no Ezra drama and if they didn't announce a reboot before all these films came out then I think it would've done closer to Aquaman's domestic total)
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Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:47 pm |
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