Great question. I only really went up to 2022 ticket prices from Mojo so 2023 wasn't really included other than Mario as a placeholder which we know has done $550M+. So it's still up in the air what ticket price will be. 2023 - 1+ 2023 - 1+ 2023 - 1+ 2023 - 0 2023 - 0 2023 - 0

Mojo doesn't list Mario on their adjusted list so feels like there could definitely be adjustments made. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top ... =bo_cso_ac

This is one of the best boxoffice discussions I’ve read in awhile. It’s true, the goalposts have moved.

When I started in the boxoffice forums during the 90s a $30M OW was considered a success. Then the Lost World’s opening Sunday happened. And that amazing OW.

Titanic, later that year, was an outlier. You shake your head and try to comprehend. Like imagining how large galactic clusters are. At some point you throw your hands up in resignation.

Phantom Menace’s performance made sense.

But the bigger than Titanic paradigm shift (for me) was Spider-Man’s $114M OW. I couldn’t believe the numbers I was looking at. “Wait, nine digits? Opening?” That seemed more real than Titanic. An actual harbinger of boxoffice trends. That $400m+ gross was insane. This wasn’t Star Wars and yet it made….

Titanic and TPM aside, $300m+ was the stuff of legends, like Jaws and Star Wars. Lion King and Forrest Gump broke through but it was a rarity. ‘In my day’ Raiders of the Lost Ark was still high among the top boxoffice lists of all time so anything above $200M was probably equivalent to $400m/$500m today. $100m was absolutely the mark of a ‘blockbuster’ and I think that held true until recently. I do get the sense that for these mega films, $300m is the floor. Both because of precedent (if it’s part of a successful franchise) and the recognition that break-even points are so high, stuff that you all have already mentioned. Still, I internally give a small ‘yay’ when a movie passes that $100m mark. It’s ingrained in me.



Side note: it’s interesting that so many of you not from the US share the same view of the evolution of boxoffice thresholds ($100m, $300m, etc). These are domestic grosses. Struck me how domestic centered boxoffice discussions are. I’m from the US and there are those of you not from the states who know more than I about average US ticket prices, inflation, what constitutes a domestic breakout hit, etc. haha

Interesting article today from Variety on the MI / Oppenheimer battle for IMAX screens.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/oppe ... 235633537/

Posting in the inflation / blockbuster thread because of this one paragraph:

A recent example of Imax’s box office heft, take Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” The animated comic book adventure opened to a mighty $120 million from 4,313 North American locations, and averaged $19,736 per location on standard 2D screens. In contrast, it brought in an average of $25,159 per location on PLF screens; and $34,214 per location on Imax screens

I knew IMAX was lucrative but $34K PTA vs $20K is pretty compelling. I can see why Cruise and Paramount are pushing so hard. They really should just do more showings the No Hard Feelings weekend if they can, especially if the Flash underwhelms the rest of the weekend, MI could clean up barring any contractual restrictions.

It does show the impact PLF + IMAX + 3D has had in elevating larger box office grosses.

Is that really accurate though, that just really means there are less imax screens. It’s more a push to increase the amount, but if imax became the norm movie theaters would in essence be rivaling concerts and broadway for ticket prices. Ot ends up alienating 90% of moviegoing population. I’ve only seen one film in IMAX, and I can honestly say I’d never do it again. In fact I enjoyed the film better at home years later.

The Numbers reported some updates on average ticket prices based on industry reports from NATO/Cinema Foundation:

2020: $9.18
2021: $10.17
2022: $10.53

Their updated estimate for Q1 2023 was $10.81 (+4% from Q1 2022). I expect we'll probably have an average ticket price in Q2 of $11.00 but at least helpful to have a better inflation ballpark.

Full article here: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254660 ... in-Q1-2023

I can't immediately find the average 2019 ticket price for the year but 2018 was $9.03. Meaning tickets have gone up 19.7% between then an Q1 2023.

Do frequent movie goers still pay full price for tickets though? The moviepass adjace subscription services are so much more cheaper and conveinant.

I saw four movies in theaters in July (and maybe a fifth with Talk To Me opening this weekend.) That's an average of a little over $5 a ticket for me.

With new ticket price information (Q1 2023 - $10.81), I've put together an updated adjusted for inflation list (approximated for 2021-2023 movies due to seasonal price fluctuations). Here is the top 30 now:

1 Gone with the Wind $2,186,713,822
2 Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope $1,925,471,795
3 The Sound of Music $1,540,265,012
4 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $1,533,444,983
5 Titanic $1,465,293,338
6 The Ten Commandments $1,416,110,000
7 Jaws $1,385,406,357
8 Doctor Zhivago $1,341,904,755
9 The Exorcist $1,195,577,352
10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs $1,178,290,000
11 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $1,168,724,231
12 One Hundred and One Dalmatians $1,080,106,013
13 Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back $1,062,332,211
14 Ben-Hur $1,059,886,989
15 Avatar $1,051,916,776
16 Avengers: Endgame $1,029,856,809
17 Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi $1,016,782,114
18 Jurassic Park $992,354,757
19 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $976,273,801
20 The Lion King $963,672,584
21 The Sting $963,634,749
22 Raiders of the Lost Ark $957,154,154
23 The Graduate $925,085,208
24 Fantasia $897,700,235
25 Spider-Man: No Way Home $855,439,281
26 The Godfather $853,152,225
27 Forrest Gump $850,067,051
28 Mary Poppins $845,145,258
29 Grease $833,435,866
30 The Avengers $831,085,772

Interestingly, SW Ep. 7 and Avengers: Endgame would be $1B+ movies now.

For recent movies (2021-2023):
44 Top Gun: Maverick $737,844,425
55 Avatar: The Way of Water $702,265,816
87 Barbie (Estimate) $600,000,000
107 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $573,710,300
168 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $465,896,689

138 movies would now adjust to $500M+.
87 movies would now adjust to $600M+ (once Barbie gets there).
55 movies would now adjust to $700M+.
34 movies would now adjust to $700M+, including TDK at $804,950,435!
23 movies would now adjust to $800M+.
17 movies would now adjust to $1B+.

Here are the top 30 OW's of all time adjusted for inflation (using Q1 $10.81 ticket price):

1 Avengers: Endgame $421,442,491.89
2 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $317,973,873.87
3 Avengers: Infinity War $305,786,757.22
4 The Avengers $281,710,104.71
5 Spider-Man: No Way Home $270,394,031.82
6 Jurassic World $267,757,506.37
7 Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi $265,139,755.08
8 Avengers: Age of Ultron $245,271,730.52
9 Black Panther $239,699,529.12
10 The Dark Knight $238,499,739.73
11 Spider-Man 3 $237,437,432.84
12 Iron Man 3 $231,550,180.06
13 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 $230,635,271.86
14 The Lion King $226,314,618.43
15 Captain America: Civil War $223,872,153.18
16 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $223,848,783.01
17 The Dark Knight Rises $218,491,414.44
18 Incredibles 2 $216,778,952.04
19 Spider-Man $213,677,262.30
20 Beauty and the Beast $210,596,896.21
21 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $210,182,414.72
22 Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker $209,336,197.58
23 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $207,461,204.75
24 The Hunger Games $207,149,676.52
25 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $205,878,809.46
26 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $193,807,279.95
27 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $192,404,652.27
28 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 $191,575,518.03
29 Shrek the Third $191,106,454.75
30 Furious 7 $188,741,625.43

Other recent OW's:
33 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $186,161,710.96
51 Barbie $162,022,044.00
61 Jurassic World Dominion $148,933,286.44
67 Thor: Love and Thunder $147,998,557.14
69 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $146,361,865.00

Additional Details:
-3 $300M+ OWs
-7 $250M+ OWs
-25 $200M+ OWs
-60 $150M+ OWs
-91 $125M+ OWs
-158 $100M+ OWs
-546 $50M+ OWs

Note: I only had unadjusted OWs for the top 1000 weekends of all time ($21M+) to start from. Any OWs below that weren't captured here.

Endgame's OW adjusted feels like a Gone With The Wind type scenario that will be very, very hard for anything to come close to for some time if ever. $103M gap ahead of #2. With inflation, that tally will go up every year.

Also, wow at Hunger Games and Catching Fire $207M and $210M respectably. Even if the new film isn't as high profile there's still a big audience that grew up on the earlier movies.

It's really insane how many years ahead of time Endgame was, and that it was even possible capacity wise to get there. Like how do you get 2.5x as many people as Barbie in a weekend? That and The Force Awakens records will hold on for a long time now that the Disney IP/superhero era is fading, TFA is probably the one that drops first somehow as surely it can't last longer than 12 years for Titanic.

The Numbers released some analysis this week on average 2023 ticket price ($10.78 +4% Y/Y). I was projecting a 3% increase for 2024 ticket prices in my previous estimates so I've adjusted to 4%.

Seems prices have stabilized at 4%. Here are the annual changes we've seen:

2019 +3.7% (Official increase reported Q4 2019 vs Q4 2018)
2020 +0.2%
2021 +11%
2022 +4%
2023 +4% (Numbers estimate)

Some notes:
-21 films will be at $1B domestic adjusted by this year
-Ghostbusters will adjust to $799M this year. Very sad that the 5th iteration will barely pass $100M
-If TG3 comes out in 2026 (TG's 40th anniversay), would see TGM adjust to $828M.
-The retention between Jurassic Park (1993) and Jurassic World (2015) is astounding at 83.7%!
-11 films will adjust to $750M+ this year have come out since 2008 (last 15 years). Even though big impact from MCU, hypothetically we should expect to see a $750M+ film either 2024 or 2025.
-Based on ticket price growth, really would be shocked is SW7 is still top grossing film unadjusted for much longer. Expect something else to reach #1 within 3 years (say end of 2027).

Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/256580 ... 78-in-2023

Here's the top 50 films domestic adjusted for inflation:

1 Gone with the Wind $2,267,871,045
2 Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope $1,996,933,338
3 The Sound of Music $1,597,430,074
4 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $1,590,356,928
5 Titanic $1,519,675,918
6 The Ten Commandments $1,468,667,200
7 Jaws $1,436,824,029
8 Doctor Zhivago $1,391,707,918
9 The Exorcist $1,239,949,751
10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs $1,222,020,800

11 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $1,212,100,009
12 One Hundred and One Dalmatians $1,120,192,834
13 Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back $1,101,759,379
14 Ben-Hur $1,099,223,405
15 Avatar $1,090,957,388
16 Avengers: Endgame $1,068,078,692
17 Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi $1,054,518,745
18 Jurassic Park $1,029,184,797
19 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $1,012,507,016
20 The Lion King $999,438,120

21 The Sting $999,398,880
22 Raiders of the Lost Ark $992,677,766
23 The Graduate $959,418,620
24 Fantasia $931,017,287
25 Spider-Man: No Way Home $887,187,869
26 The Godfather $884,815,932
27 Forrest Gump $881,616,256
28 Mary Poppins $876,511,796
29 Grease $864,367,824
30 The Avengers $861,930,509

31 Jurassic World $861,041,461
32 Black Panther $855,543,489
33 Thunderball $838,597,760
34 The Dark Knight $834,825,191
35 The Jungle Book $826,040,095
36 Sleeping Beauty $814,785,171
37 Avengers: Infinity War $811,911,741
38 Ghostbusters $799,108,550
39 Shrek 2 $796,565,850
40 Spider-Man $791,805,575

41 Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid $791,038,728
42 Love Story $784,946,562
43 Independence Day $776,587,492
44 Top Gun: Maverick $765,228,623
45 Home Alone $759,381,663
46 Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi $757,815,458
47 Pinocchio $755,671,877
48 Cleopatra $753,207,655
49 Beverly Hills Cop $752,832,080
50 Goldfinger $743,302,560

Interestingly "flop" Cleopatra adjusts to $753m - studios would kill for that now.

Adjusting anything older than a decade makes no sense, so these "adjustments" from over 50 years ago are pure fantasy.

Well it would cost the equivalent of $400M+ today so not sure if they'd bite.

The crazy inflation of the last couple years does put a damper on numbers nowadays. As much as Dune is making now, back in the 2000s it would've been the equivalent of like a $150-175M or so gross if my math is correct

Random notes:

-A proper sequel for ID4 was such a lost box office opportunity (nearly $800M).

-Twister would now be a $600M+ movie. Surprised it took them 28 years to make a sequel.

-Ghost, Mrs Doubtfire, Home Alone, The Fugitive all adjust to $500M+. Its a shame those type of movies don't break out as much now.

-Inside Out and DP1 both adjust to about $475M so will be interesting to see who wins this summer.

-Rush Hour 2 made $226M in 01 would now be at $448M. A $200M movie of early 00s is essentially a $400M movie today.

Dang, this is huge

Some of these 01 movies like Hannibal (314), Pearl Harbour (378) and Planet of the Apes (342) have pretty solid adjusted inflation performances

I'm impressed how consistent the HP movie franchise movies are OW wise adjusted for inflation:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 $239,195,019 (2011) - Final film (+big $ at midnight)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $179,599,508 (2005)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $178,853,543 (2001)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 $177,641,922 (2010)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $170,498,015 (2002)
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $169,138,133 (2004)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $125,650,850 (2007) -> Wed Opening ($244.6M 5day)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $116,350,920 (2009) -> Wed Opening ($236.2M 5day)

$169M-$180M range adjusted for 5/8 movies. 5/6 for 3day OWs in that range other than the last film. SW Ep. 7 type run if that cast ever comes back for 1 more film.

Also the ridiculousness of the OW's that happened in 01 and 02:

1 HP1 $178,853,543
2 Planet of the Apes $135,748,537
3 Mummy 2 $134,968,260
4 Rush Hour 2 $133,520,682
5 Monster's Inc $123,951,239
6 Pearl Harbor $117,022,173
7 Hannibal $114,891,270
8 JP3 $100,567,326
9 Tomb Raider $94,553,880
10 LOTR1 $93,515,452
11 American Pie 2 $89,368,684
12 Shrek $83,881,485

and 02:
1 Spider-man $221,607,634
2 HP2 $170,498,015
3 SW Ep. 2 $154,424,755
4 Austin Powers 3 $141,000,982
5 LOTR2 $119,652,117
6 Signs $116,004,235
7 Scooby Doo $104,500,178
8 MIB2 $100,628,240
9 8 Mile $98,875,750
10 Die Another Day $90,832,023
11 Ice Age $89,366,297
12 xXx $85,880,692

Austin Powers 3 at $141M?! Scooby Doo at $105M? 8 Mile at $99M is crazy. Eras (2023) with 4% higher ticket prices could be at $97M adjusted by later this year so sort of interesting to see in hindsight there was a bit of a precedent here with Eras/8 Mile having such similar openings and reflects just how massive Eminen in early 00s was to pull that type of OW.

"2 Planet of the Apes $135,748,537"

Lol I remember this had so much hype.

These all ring true to me. They all had huge hype at the time. And there is a case to be made Eminem circa 2002 is the only music celebrity of the 21st century so far on par with Taylor. And Adele for a few years in the 2010s.

Here were the biggest pre-01 OW's adjusted (3day):

1 JP2 $176,186,292
2 SW Ep. 1 $143,055,287
3 Batman Forever $136,040,652
4 ID4 $127,402,514
5 JP $127,349,559
6 MIB $124,736,092
7 Batman Returns $123,425,076
8 MI2 $120,318,218
9 MI1 $115,249,183
10 The Grinch $114,571,246
11 Batman $113,769,083
12 X-men $113,300,668
13 Godzilla $105,293,346
14 Batman and Robin $104,717,505
15 Twister $104,145,973
16 Interview With The Vampire $99,993,201

Godzilla and Batman and Robin were considered massive flops but their OW's today would be considered good. Interview With The Vampire pulling a $100M OW is also massive.

So to put things into perspective, $100M OW's adjusted had only been done 16 times TOTAL pre 01. That's how many times we saw $100M+ OWs in 01/02. The box office expanded massively over those two years and shifted us to the OW bonanza that we still see today.

Like Rush Hour 2, American Pie 2 stands out to me because of how far that genre has fallen

One last one. Jim Carrey's run from 1994 to 2003 (took out the Oscar bait Dec/limited movies Simon Birch, Man On The Moon and Majestic):

Bruce Almighty $451,477,266
The Grinch $539,686,988
Me, Myself & Irene $187,484,374
The Truman Show $297,197,592
Liar Liar $443,100,569
The Cable Guy $152,797,372
Ace Ventura 2 $279,245,046
Batman Forever $474,348,114
Dumb & Dumber $339,289,118
The Mask $319,932,967
Ace Ventura $192,667,620

4 $275M+ movies over a 21 month period!? 8 $275M+ movies over 9 years. Even his flop The Cable Guy would adjust to $153M now which would be a mega breakout for a comedy today. What's most impressive is there's only 2 sequels here.