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 Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation? 
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007
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Post Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
With Little Mermaid on its way to potentially 300m and possibly more, the general reaction ranges from ho-hum to “itz a bomb.” This gives me pause…what happened!? This use to be the marker of a mega blockbuster just a decade ago. Now it is reason to throw around “bomb”?

Are we just spoiled?

Are Blockbusters just bigger now?

Has inflation been THAT extreme?

Or is it all case by case? I mean It just a few short years ago nabbed 300m and was considered a mega, colossal hit. Also budgets are something to consider.

Are budgets out of control?

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 10:32 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Budgets are out of control.

Also, 300m is a lot of money sure, but it’s hard to be excited by it when it’s worth so much less than it used to be.

All the summer releases that missed 300m in 2014, a lot of them adjust to over 300m now for comparison.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 10:36 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
300m+ is a good gross. The international numbers are the reason it doesn't look like a hit. Surely not a bomb, who's saying that...


Wed Jun 07, 2023 10:45 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Combination but I'd say bigger blockbusters and comparing Disney to itself is a strong factor. eg. The first Captain America and Thor movies are only 175-180 million which seems paltry even by 2011 standards (adjusts to 230-240). Thor 4 was easily bigger than the first two adjusted but it didn't really feel that mindblowing because MCU has scaled up.

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 10:59 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
The "itz a bomb" claims are just the extreme end of feeling disappointment for its performance, so those can be ignored, but having said that it isn't doing spectacularly either. But I think it's a decent, healthy gross ... if it reaches $300m.

But it's also because there are just way bigger blockbusters now. Mario doing $550 million then Maverick doing $700m last year and The Way of Water doing $680m kind of makes $300m look a bit puny now. The Little Mermaid needed to come out in 2003 for just $300m to be impressive.

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:35 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Inflation has definitely impacted ticket prices, but its not 2019 either yet far too many people have those type of expectations for films.

$600m is a big gross in 2023. It is what it is.

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:45 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
In this case, The Little Mermaid's gross will always be interpreted however the interpreter wants to interpret it. Some will say its a smashing success which proves that people support minority representation and some will say its a total bomb which proves that people are sick of woke shit. How much money Little Mermaid actually made was never going to matter.

In other, less political cases, I think it just depends on expectations. It reaching $300M+ was considered more impressive than Lion King hitting $500M since we'd never seen a horror movie do those kind of numbers, while with Lion King we had just recently witnessed several Disney movies make even more (Endgame/Infinity War/Black Panther, Incredibles, Beauty and the Beast, etc..)


Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:31 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
3 of the top 7 all time domestic came out in the last 2.5 years and that was with a pandemic.

Inflation, inflation, inflation!

$100M really doesn't mean much anymore other than for smaller films or as a last resort to save face for larger films.

$250M feels like the new standard for a blockbuster. What $100M was in the early 2000s. Even $200M can feel a bit underwheming for bigger movies when the marketing budgets themselves are $50M+ on top of budgets.

$300M I still consider as a win for a blockbuster.

$400M+ gets into big success hit type territory.

$500M+ is now zeitgeist level film that you need to see to be in the know.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:51 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
If $250m is the new $100m, then The Little Mermaid is less impressive than Scary Movie, lol

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:10 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Well Scary Movie was super impressive and led to a flood of new movie ripoffs and sequels of it so arguably I'd say that might be correct!

Now it adjusts to $266,506,502. That also wouldn't have relied on premium screens as much as TLM so it probably is arguably more impressive. Also had a $19M budget (2000) which $35-40M now.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:27 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
O wrote:
Well Scary Movie was super impressive and led to a flood of new movie ripoffs and sequels of it so arguably I'd say that might be correct!


In context, sure. A horror comedy making $157m is massively successful. But as a gross in isolation, what Scary Movie did wasn't anything special, which I believe the crux of this thread is about - this isn't a What Went Wrong/Right thread for The Little Mermaid.

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:00 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Scary Movie was a gigantic hit and pop culture phenom. It's $43m opening weekend was massive for any film in its day.

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:11 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Jaws dropped across Hollywood from a $157M gross for a comedy that was mocking the Scream franchise and horror movies in general that ended up becoming more commercially successful than Scream.

The $157M gross for a comedy was exception for that time. That would be the equivalent of a movie like No Hard Feelings out of the blue grossing $270M. Inflation definitely has made lots of films get by nowadays that would have been downright flops 20 years ago.

Wild, Wild West made $114M in 1999 ($205M today). A $200M western today I think people would give a pass because it's a fickle genre (taking Smith out of the equation of course). $170M budget in those times though so probably would be pushing $300M if that were made now which would never happen and was more of a post ID4/MIB decision in all likelihood.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:40 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
See…the thing with inflation is I don’t think ticket prices have more than doubled since ten years ago.

In fact, I looked it up. Twenty years ago tickets were about 3 to f4 dollars cheaper, meaning ticket prices have increased a little more than 50%. So, a movie that made 100m twenty years ago would make a little more than 150m now.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

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Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:00 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Overall "average" ticket prices yes. But a higher share of these bigger movies are premium tickets.

11.2% of Spider-verse's OW was IMAX alone ($13.5M)
29% of patrons saw the film in a premium format, paying an average of $4.52 more per ticket.
Estimated that 9M people saw it last weekend.

By comparison, Spider-man 3 had the biggest Imax opening ever, with $4.8 million at the time in 2007 dollars. Actuals went up to $151.1M for the 3day so it probably ended up at about $5M (about 3-3.5% total weekend share).

Add in 3D and other premium formats and you have much more impact from inflation (and growth of premium viewings).

If 29% of box office came from people paying $4.52 on average, with average ticket prices of 2022 listed at $11.75 from EntIntelligence which was the first Google search # that came up. That would be on average $16.27 average ticket price for 29% of the total OW for Spiderverse 2. That is about $35M of the total OW so at an average ticket price that would have added about $9.8M alone (8.3% of its total weekend as a premium "bump" vs an average ticket price) not including impact of inflation from years past.

https://variety.com/2007/film/box-offic ... 117964350/


Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:19 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Mermaid's domestic performance is very good. 300m domestic is a great achievement and it will be the 1st non MCU movie to do so post pandemic. Its OS is not great though its legs looks to be good. Hope it breaks out in Japan to take its OS gross greater than domestic.

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Thu Jun 08, 2023 1:48 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
It's an unusual situation that I don't think we've seen before, at least in modern times.

If you start back in 1993, 30 years ago, you'll see what I'll call the "standard blockbuster mark" of $300 million being consistent for many years as it gradually grew to $350 million+ over the course of ten years (2003), and then up to $400 million over another ten years (2013). You had your occasional uber breakouts (Titanic, The Dark Knight, Avatar, Avengers) from 1993-2013, but they didn't set a new standard that other blockbusters could aim for; they were just the rare exceptions, just 4 films in 20 years.

2015 is where we begin to see a change in this with Jurassic World and The Force Awakens being so big and released so close together (6 months). But most big blockbusters were still topping out around $400/450 million despite these uber breakouts suddenly became more and more common from 2017-2019.

So... $300 million of old has grown to be more like $400/450 million today, which should be expected growth from inflation. I suppose $300 million could be seen a "disappointing" in a way today for major tentpoles as they've fallen behind the growth curve, but we're also seeing more films capable of doing well over this, even 2-3x this, which is unprecedented until recently.

What used to be an uber breakout maybe a couple times a decade for a solid 20 years is now happening practically yearly (if you count Mario this year).

I don't think a film still doing close to/over $400 million should be considered disappointing just because we're seeing more films do $600-900 million. The ceiling has just suddenly grown in the last five years or so (~2017/2018) which has broken the growth curve a bit, which isn't something the box office has experienced before (again, at least in the several decades).

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 12:20 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
It's far from an exact science, but I was curious adjusted for inflation post 1990, how many $400M+ movies each year had. Here's what it showed below.

90s were pretty consistent in a range of 1-3 blockbusters at $400M+ levels. 00s that range went up to 1-4 blockbusters at $400M+ levels with 2002 looking as an inflection point of big fan-driven franchises (LOTR, HP, Spider-man).

10s were in the 1-4 blockbuster range for $400M+ movies from 2010 - 2016, similar to the counts of the 00s. From 2017 - 2019 kept going higher, obviously driven by MCU anticipation to a conclusion of that phase.

Covid wrecked the #'s in the 20s but 2022 returned to the 2000 - 2016 range. As the recovery picks up we should keep seeing a count closer to 2017-2019 as new franchises start or continue.

All but three of the past 32 years weren't in the 1 - 4 range, driven by MCU + Disney in general with their re-imaginings and SW in 2017/2019 and Covid in 2020 missed the low range.

Will be interesting to see once ticket prices are say 25% higher if the $500M+ movies per year stays in the 1-4 range or can approach 7 we saw in 2019. Perhaps the "uber blockbuster" ends up being what the benchmark is for that respective year to make the top 4. It seems like each year we averaged 1 - 4 zeitgeist type movies even in the early 1990s to now.

Why I think the 2002 inflection for "uber" blockbusters wasn't as dramatic as the 2017-2019 rise is studios still hadn't fully fleshed out how to cater to these fan driven franchise movies early 2000s and sort of learned as they went along.

By the mid 2010s, felt like Disney in particular had that down to an exact science formula where they knew how to make, market, release uber blockbusters to huge results across their IP, especially with MCU. So do think we saw a bigger inflection point then though a smaller amplitude one definitely feels like it happened fall 2001 - summer 2002.

1990 - 3
1991 -2
1992 - 1
1993 - 3
1994 - 2
1995 - 1
1996 - 2
1997 - 3
1998 - 2
1999 - 3
---
2000 - 1
2002 - 4
2003 - 4
2004 - 4
2005 - 3
2006 - 1
2007 -4
2008 - 3
2009 - 2
---
2010 - 1
2011 - 2
2012 - 3
2013 - 4
2014 - 1
2015 - 3
2016 - 4
2017 - 5
2018 - 4
2019 - 7
2020 - 0
2021 - 1
2022 - 4
2023 - 1+


Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:36 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
So yes, I think blockbusters are just bigger these days, inflation not being the primary factor.

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:47 am
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Try not to get a headache from the #'s below, but I was curious about how the # of top level blockbusters has changed over the past 32 years. Uber blockbuster counts definitely have risen for blockbusters up to the $550M adjusted for inflation level, but an interesting thing happens past that.

Biggest takeaway from all of this, technically the 90s and 10s produced the same # of $700M+ adjusted for inflation movies. Other than from Dec. 2009, the 00s produced NO $700M+ adjusted movies!

All but 2 years in the last 30 have seen 0 - 2 $550M+ movies, with 2004 and 2018 seeing 3.

Only 2018 deviates from the 0 - 2 count for $600M+ threshold of adjusted movies.

Only 1994, 2015 and 2018 saw 2 $650M+ movies otherwise the regular range has been 0 - 1 with a $650M+ movie happening at least once every 4 years going back the past 32.

Finally, for $700M+ adjusted movies, we saw 5 come from the 90s, only 1 from the 00s (which was Avatar right at the end of the decade), and 5 come from the 10s (2012, 2015 2X, 2018, 2019) and 2 from the 20s so far.

For prediction's sake, that means we'll likely get 3 more $700M+ movies between 2024 - 2029 adjusted to 2022 ticket prices, so by the end of the decade could be closer to an $850M+ level as a "benchmark." Meaning a 2028 movie could gross $850M+ and be in line with the decade count of 5 mega uber blockbusters we've seen in the 90s and 10s. Completely guessing on the "$850M+" as it depends on the pace of ticket price increases. Could be $800M or could even by $900M by then.

Lastly, for a quick comparison:
-The 1980s produced 4 $700M+ adjusted movies (E.T., IJ1, SW5, SW6).
-The 1970s produced 6 $700M+ adjusted movies (SW4, Jaws, Exorcist, The Sting, The Godfather, and Grease)
-The 1960s produced 6 $700M+ adjusted movies (Sound of Music, Doctor Zhivago, 101 Dalmatians, The Graduate, Mary Poppins, and Thunderball).

So we have seen 4-6 mega blockbusters reach the $700M+ threshold adjusted consistently across decades going back to 1960 to 2023 except for the 00s which had 1 with Avatar only.

$450M+ $500M+ $550M+ $600M+ $650M+ $700M+
1990 - 2 1990 - 1 1990 - 1 1990 - 1 1990 - 0 1990 - 0
1991 -1 1991 - 0 1991 - 0 1991 - 0 1991 - 0 1991 - 0
1992 - 1 1992 - 0 1992 - 0 1992 - 0 1992 - 0 1992 - 0
1993 - 2 1993 - 1 1993 - 1 1993 - 1 1993 - 1 1993 - 1
1994 - 2 1994 - 2 1994 - 2 1994 - 2 1994 - 2 1994 - 2
1995 - 0 1995 - 0 1995 - 0 1995 - 0 1995 - 0 1995 - 0
1996 - 2 1996 - 2 1996 - 1 1996 - 1 1996 - 0 1996 - 0
1997 - 3 1997 - 2 1997 - 1 1997 - 1 1997 - 1 1997 - 1
1998 - 0 1998 - 0 1998 - 0 1998 - 0 1998 - 0 1998 - 0
1999 - 2 1999 - 2 1999 - 1 1999 - 1 1999 - 1 1999 - 1
2000 - 1 2000 - 0 2000 - 0 2000 - 0 2000 - 0 2000 - 0
2001 - 3 2001 - 2 2001 - 0 2001 - 0 2001 - 0 2001 - 0
2002 - 3 2002 - 3 2002 - 1 2002 - 1 2002 - 1 2002 - 0
2003 - 3 2003 - 2 2003 - 2 2003 - 0 2003 - 0 2003 - 0
2004 - 3 2004 - 3 2004 - 3 2004 - 1 2004 - 1 2004 - 0
2005 - 1 2005 - 1 2005 - 1 2005 - 0 2005 - 0 2005 - 0
2006 - 1 2006 - 1 2006 - 1 2006 - 1 2006 - 0 2006 - 0
2007 -1 2007 - 0 2007 - 0 2007 - 0 2007 - 0 2007 - 0
2008 - 1 2008 - 1 2008 - 1 2008 - 1 2008 - 1 2008 - 0
2009 - 2 2009 - 2 2009 - 1 2009 - 1 2009 - 1 2009 - 1
2010 - 1 2010 - 0 2010 - 0 2010 - 0 2010 - 0 2010 - 0
2011 - 1 2011 - 0 2011 - 0 2011 - 0 2011 - 0 2011 - 0
2012 - 3 2012 - 2 2012 - 1 2012 - 1 2012 - 1 2012 - 1
2013 - 3 2013 - 0 2013 - 0 2013 - 0 2013 - 0 2013 - 0
2014 - 0 2014 - 0 2014 - 0 2014 - 0 2014 - 0 2014 - 0
2015 - 3 2015 - 2 2015 - 2 2015 - 2 2015 - 2 2015 - 2
2016 - 2 2016 - 2 2016 - 1 2016 - 0 2016 - 0 2016 - 0
2017 - 2 2017 - 2 2017 - 1 2017 - 1 2017 - 0 2017 - 0
2018 - 3 2018 - 3 2018 - 3 2018 - 3 2018 - 2 2018 - 1
2019 - 5 2019 - 3 2019 - 2 2019 - 1 2019 - 1 2019 - 1
2020 - 0 2020 - 0 2020 - 0 2020 - 0 2020 - 0 2020 - 0
2021 - 1 2021 - 1 2021 - 1 2021 - 1 2021 - 1 2021 - 1
2022 - 1 2022 - 1 2022 - 1 2022 - 1 2022 - 1 2022 - 1
2023 - 1+ 2023 - 1+ 2023 - 1+ 2023 - 0 2023 - 0 2023 - 0


Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:12 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
O wrote:

Biggest takeaway from all of this, technically the 90s and 10s produced the same # of $700M+ adjusted for inflation movies. Other than from Dec. 2009, the 00s produced NO $700M+ adjusted movies!


This is true but movies like Endgame and Forrest Gump did it in entirely different ways obviously.

Top Gun 2 is probably the closest we'll see in modern day to an old school word of mouth driven 700 million grosser, although it did still have a great opening weekend.

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:43 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
The decade trend going back to the 1960s (other than the 00s) leading to 4-6 $700M+ movies I found interesting as there were societal themes that could drive these mega blockbusters.

-The 1960s: Musicals (Mary Poppins, Sound of Music), Cold War (Doctor Zhivago, Thunderball) and societal change (The Graduate)
-The 1970s: Darker era and start of sci-fi (SW, Jaws, Exorcist, The Godfather) with public fascination with space
-The 1980s: Sci-fi domination (E.T., SW5, SW6) with global adventure (IJ1)
-The 1990s: Animation renaissance and groundbreaking special effects (Forrest Gump, TLK, Titanic, Jurassic Park).
-2000s: Start of superheroes and rebooted premium experiences (Avatar)
-2010s: Superhero dominance and rebooting decades old iconic IP


Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:10 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Shack wrote:
O wrote:

Biggest takeaway from all of this, technically the 90s and 10s produced the same # of $700M+ adjusted for inflation movies. Other than from Dec. 2009, the 00s produced NO $700M+ adjusted movies!


This is true but movies like Endgame and Forrest Gump did it in entirely different ways obviously.

Top Gun 2 is probably the closest we'll see in modern day to an old school word of mouth driven 700 million grosser, although it did still have a great opening weekend.

Avatar 2? Puss in Boots 2?

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:25 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
Oh wow what a cool thread. Look forward to wading through it.

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 6:29 pm
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Post Re: Bigger Blockbusters or Inflation?
@ O Interesting analysis but I'm wondering, what ATP are you using for 2023? I have a hard time seeing the ATP for this year being lower than $11 and that would lead to a lot more adjusted $700m+ grossers than you have.


Mon Jun 12, 2023 4:44 pm
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