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 June 9-11 Predictions 

Spider Verse second weekend drop?
Sub 30% 20%  20%  [ 1 ]
30-34% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
35-39% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
40-44% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
45-49% 60%  60%  [ 3 ]
50-54% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
55-59% 20%  20%  [ 1 ]
60-64% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
65-69% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
70%+ 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 5

 June 9-11 Predictions 
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Post June 9-11 Predictions
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts- 39m

Spider Verse -45%
Little Mermaid -40%


Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:22 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
55-59% heavy frontloading

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:30 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
-45% drop :D this movie YOU HAVE TO SEE IT TWICE!!!

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:42 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.


What small film was dumped with no marketing this weekend?


Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:48 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.


What small film was dumped with no marketing this weekend?


Simulant :funny:

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:16 am
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.


What small film was dumped with no marketing this weekend?


The machine, Kandahar, you hurt my feelings, knights of the zodiac, hypnotic, rallyroad racers, to name a few


Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:24 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.


What small film was dumped with no marketing this weekend?


The machine, Kandahar, you hurt my feelings, knights of the zodiac, hypnotic, rallyroad racers, to name a few


He means THIS weekend, June 2-4.

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:37 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Really wish this Transformers would have moved or better yet never existed at all. No way this isn't a Terminator Genisys/Men In Black International type right? It's going to be dead on arrival yet also prevent Spiderverse from having a mother of god level drop (though it should still be very good in the 48-52% range.) Asteroid City and The Blackening being the biggest new releases would have helped those two as well.


Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:07 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Truly a terrible date for Transformers. Should've released with less competition. July 7 would've been a decent date for it.

Right now could see it opening anywhere from 20-35.


Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:13 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Boogeyman probably should have opened this weekend instead of the current weekend. Would have had a much easier time building counter-programming buzz against Rise of the Beasts instead of Spider-Verse, and it would still have four weekends to itself before Insidious


Last edited by Jonathan on Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:50 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
No way this isn't a Terminator Genisys/Men In Black International type right? It's going to be dead on arrival


It does have such an air about it, yes.

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:58 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Truly a terrible date for Transformers. Should've released with less competition. July 7 would've been a decent date for it.

Right now could see it opening anywhere from 20-35.


Presales does not say its that low. I think its opening > 40m.

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Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:24 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Algren wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Finally a week with no small films being dumped with no marketing, at least as far as I can tell.


What small film was dumped with no marketing this weekend?


The machine, Kandahar, you hurt my feelings, knights of the zodiac, hypnotic, rallyroad racers, to name a few


He means THIS weekend, June 2-4.


Bingo. The only wide releases were Spider-Man and Boogeyman. Boogeyman had plenty of marketing. So this weekend didn't have one either.. Except for all of the small movies that get dumped into limited release every week.


Sat Jun 03, 2023 1:26 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Yeah, even I saw marketing for The Boogeyman everywhere. I probably saw more for it than for Across the Spider-Verse

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Sat Jun 03, 2023 3:05 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
I am convinced the Transformers franchise, just like the Fast & Furious franchise, is money laundering at this point

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Sun Jun 04, 2023 7:44 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Looks like 40-45m is safe with a chance at 50m

Should manage 100m domestic with more and more schools out.

Though it will debut behind the second week of spider-Man


Wed Jun 07, 2023 6:47 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Looks like 1.5m through early fan shows. Probably another 6-7m through thursday shows. Friday presales also look ok. I think it can hit 50m unless walkups suck big time.

I also just came out of early screening of The Flash. I think it will play well with audience. My audience did take it very well though CGI had issues.

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Thu Jun 08, 2023 1:50 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Transformers is being helped I think by the gap in movies. Less fatigue now for sure than 2017-2018 when Transformers 5 and Bumblebee did sub 150m total


Thu Jun 08, 2023 11:09 pm
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Insane final day for Transformers. Amazing walkups. Now I am thinking 8.5+ previews including early shows and 55-60m OW. Great walkups over the weekend will get it there.

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Fri Jun 09, 2023 12:34 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
This outdoing Fast X's preview numbers (or coming close without the Wednesday previews) is pretty shocking. And it sounds like Spider-Verse stayed above $10M yesterday, so we're definitely good to have two $50M grossers this weekend...or could they both go above $60M?!


Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:15 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Deadline #'s:

Transformers $8.8M

Spider-verse $10.1M

Very impressive for Transformers given how The Last Knight Did. Bumblebee certainly helped the franchise as did time.


Fri Jun 09, 2023 11:11 am
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Post Re: June 9-11 Predictions
Good for Transformers. Definitely could have fell off a cliff given past precedent. If it's not too frontloaded, maybe it can do a $60m/$150m sort of run. Overseas numbers are still coming in relatively low across the board though, and this one is no exception from what I see, so $500 million will be difficult and outgrossing The Last Knight isn't happening. Beating Bumblebee might be tough too.

And with a $200m budget, breaking even becomes a question for yet another film. But I don't really blame the budgets so much as OS numbers being lackluster lately.

Spider-Man staying above $10 million all week and earning $49.3 million over the weekdays is pretty amazing. Its dailies beat JW: Dominion by over $3 million despite opening to $24 million less.

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